JR O'Donnell
2* San Diego -110
C Richard grabs our spotlight as Clayton Richard 6-4, 3.00 ERA will be looking to post a win vs the Colorado Rockies for the second time in less than 2 weeks. Looking @ the Rockies lefty Jeff Francis 2-3, and a 5.12 ERA and Rockies will struggle against the Richard show. The Rockies Francis was pounded by St Louie last outing. The Sandy Padres are the sharp side today.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota -120
Since joining the Twins last season, Carl Pavano has been a rock-solid money maker, cashing 10 of his 15 road starts for Minnesota. He enters today's game with team starts wins in five of his last six starts, including 3-0 his last three away. He is also 6-2 his last eight team starts in July and 5-2 with a 2.88 ERA in his career team starts against the Tigers. With that, look for the Twins to improve to 5-2 in their last seven games on this field here this afternoon. We recommend a 3-unit play on Minnesota.
Ben Burns
7* Philadelphia -173
The Phillies are suddenly rolling. They have a chance to sweep the Reds here and take a winning streak into the All Star Break. Given their current positive momentum and given Cole Hamels' mastery of Cincinnati, I expect the Phillies to do just that.
The Phillies first three wins in this series have ALL come in extra innings. On Friday, the Phillies rallied from a 7-1 9th inning deficit. Yesterday, the Phillies didn't even have a hit until the 9th inning and won 1-0 in the bottom of the 11th. Those type of victories are very good for a team's confidence and morale. On the other hand, the team that loses those type of games can be rather deflated.
As Reds manager Dusty Baker noted: "The last two days have been tough to take..."
With this being the final game before the All Star Break, I feel the Reds will have some trouble bouncing back. Of course, they always have trouble against Hamels.
Hamels has made six starts vs. the Reds and he's gone a perfect 5-0 (Phillies are 6-0) with an outstanding 1.26 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Hamels allowed one earned runs or less in five of those games and just three in the other. The Phillies won those six games by a combined score of 48-12.
For the season, Hamels has been much better at home. He's got a very solid 3.07 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in eight home starts. He's averaging seven innings per start here and has an impressive 54 K's with just 14 walks.
Southpaw Matt Maloney goes for the Reds. He'll face a Philadelphia team which is averaging a healthy 5.3 runs per game vs. left-handers this season and which has gone 75-51 (+10) vs. southpaw starters the past few seasons. During that same stretch, the Phillies have gone a profitable 36-16 (+9.6) when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. They're now 14-4 their last 18 home games in the month of July and I look for them to keep on rolling right into the break.
Lenny Del Genio
LA Dodgers -140
The Cubs and Dodgers play the final game of this four game series tonight in LA. The Cubs won the first two games of this series, but last night the Dodgers took the win 7-3. Tonight, good pitching matchup on ESPN with Silva opposing Padilla. Silva has been rock solid all season with a 2.96 ERA and 11-5 team start record. However, tonight he’s going to get out pitched by the LA righty Padilla. He pitched four games to start the season, but was injured and had to take two months off. He made his first start back in Fenway Park and the Red Sox roughed him up for four earned runs in only 5 1/3 innings of work. However, since that one start he’s been very tough in three outings posting a 2.18 ERA and remarkable 0.822 WHIP. In 20 2/3 innings of work he’s whiffed 21 opposing batters. As we noted the Cubs Padilla has a very strong ERA on the season, however the Dodgers have performed very well this season when facing an opposing pitcher with a 3.50 or better ERA posting a 12-4 record. The Cubs don’t get many extra base hits and LA’s Padilla is tough against teams that average 2.75 or less extra base hits per game posting a 21-9 team start record. Good Luck. Vegas Icon Pick on LA Dodgers!
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Cubs / Dodgers Over 7.5
ASA
Detroit on the money line vs. Minnesota
The home team has won nine of the last ten meetings between these teams and Detroit should be in position to extend its lead in the AL Central even further. Minnesota had led the division most of the season but the Twins are in a nasty 5-13 rut, including going 2-9 in the last eleven road games. Minnesota?s offense has gone cold, failing to top five runs in 15 of the last 19 games and with MVP candidate Justin Morneau still out of the lineup the Twins appear much less potent.
In the last ten games the Twins are batting only .244 against left-handed pitching and rookie Andrew Oliver pitched a decent game against Minnesota two starts ago. In that effort he took the loss but allowed just two earned runs in six innings. Oliver is yet to pick up a win but two of his three big league starts have been solid efforts. Detroit is also backed up by an outstanding bullpen that holds a 2.92 ERA at home for the season.
Detroit?s offense has been on a tear, winning seven of the last eight games while scoring 48 runs in that span. The Tigers are hitting .298 as a team in the last ten games and that is not far off the season numbers as the Tigers are batting .288 for the season at home. The Tigers are 32-12 for the season at Comerica Park and 68-32 in the last 100 home games going back to last season. Detroit is also 7-4 as home underdogs this season and veteran starter Carl Pavano may be getting too much respect here with the struggles his teammates have had.
Pavano has enjoyed a nice season to re-establish his career but the Twins are just 8-7 in his last 15 starts. Five times in that span he has allowed four or more runs including his most recent start. The Tigers also beat Pavano earlier this season in Detroit. Minnesota?s bullpen has solid season numbers but there have been several recent games where the pen has not done the job and the ERA over the last ten games is a full point higher than for the season. Given the long losing streak for the Twins, Detroit is an attractive home underdog in this match-up.
Billy Coleman
4* S.F. Under
3* Minn.
3* St.L.
3* Mets Under
Jeff Benton
20 DIME Philadelphia Phillies -1½
I know that Cole Hamels hasn’t been a very bettor-friendly pitcher this season. He’s 6-7 with a 4.05 ERA, and the Phillies are 8-9 when he pitches, including 1-7 in his last eight starts (0-4 last four, all as a favorite). However, Hamels has been strong at home, posting a 3.07 ERA and alloaing just 48 hits and 14 walks in 55 2/3 innings (1.11 WHIP).
More importantly, he has flat-out owned the Cincinnati Reds in his career, going 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in six career starts. Not only did the Phillies win all six games, but five were multiple-run victories. And in two career home starts against the Reds – one in 2008, one in 2009 – Hamels surrenedered just one run, six hits and three walks in 16 innings. The final scores of those two games: 5-0 and 22-1!
Collectively, the Reds are batting just .150 in 43 innings against Hamels, and that includes Brandon Phillips (2-for-18), Joey Votto (1-for-6) and Jay Bruce (1-for-9). The one Red who has had at least a little success against Hamels is Scott Rolen (3-for-10, 2 RBIs), but Rolen is expected to miss his third straight game with a back injury.
While the Phillies have won just eight times in Hamels’ 17 starts this season, six of those victories have covered the run line (including three of four at home). In fact, 13 of Philadelphia’s last 17 wins – including seven of the last nine – have been by more than one run.
Finally, this game concledes a 10-game road trip for Cincinnati – it has lost five of the last eight, including consecutive defeats the last two nights – and it comes one day before the All-Star break (in other words, don’t be surprised if the Reds lack a little focus here). On top of that, Cincy is going with Matt Malony on the mound, and this is just the lefty’s second big-league appearance of the season. The first came Wednesday at the Mets, and the Reds lost 3-0, falling to 2-5 in Maloney’s last seven starts going back to June 2000, with Maloney posting a 5.13 ERA in those seven games.
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units San Fran +105
1 Unit Atlanta/ Mets UNDER 7.5
1 Unit Colorado -130
2 Units Spain +100
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play NY Yankees (-235) over Seattle
New York has won 7 of the last 8 games and they have also won 10 of the last 12 road games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. C.C. Sabathia has won 18 of the last 20 games as a road favorite of -175 or higher and he is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.14.
50* Play Tampa Bay (-230) over Cleveland
Cleveland has lost 9 of the last 12 games vs. Tampa Bay on the road and they have also lost 15 of the last 19 games as an underdog of +175 to +250. Justin Masterson has lost 17 of the last 21 road games and he is 1-5 in road games this season with an ERA of 6.70.
50* Play Milwaukee (-180) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has lost 18 of the last 20 games vs. Milwaukee on the road and they have also lost 22 of the last 26 road games as an underdog of +125 to +200. Pittsburgh has lost 6 of the last 7 overall games and they have also lost 14 of the last 17 games after batting .225 or worse over the last 10 games.
100* Play Montreal (-5) over Edmonton
Montreal has won 16 of the last 18 games coming off a road game and they have won 23 of the last 27 games when playing in the 1st two weeks of the season. Montreal has won 10 of the last 12 games when playing on a Sunday and they have also won 7 of the last 8 games coming off a road loss.
Paul Leiner
50* Mets -135
25* Red Sox -140
Executive
250% Arizona
Rocketman
4* Boston
The Asian Executive
Arena 1-3
CFL 1-3
WNBA 3-0
MLB -4.80
World Cup 0-1
World Cup Lock of the Millenium - Spain
MLB Total Lock of the Year - SD/COL Under
MLB Lock of the Month - Twins
Waive The Rating Blank Check Christmas in July - Red Sox
---First Blank Check of Career---
CFL Best Bet of the Day - Edmonton
WNBA Best Bet of the Day - New York
Ben Burns
10* Boston / Toronto Under 9.5
The first two games of this series both finished well above the total. This afternoon's finale has the highest O/U line of the three games. Yet, I expect it to be the lowest-scoring of the bunch.
Litsch wasn't very good last time out. He was very sharp in his previous start though (2 runs on 4 hits through 6 complete innings) and he's always fared well vs. the Red Sox. In six starts vs. Boston, he's gone 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA. He allowed three earned runs or less in five of those six starts, including two or less in four of them. In three home starts vs. Boston, he's allowed three earned runs in 17 2/3 innings. That translates to a 1.53 ERA.
Like Litsch, Matsuzaka has enjoyed plenty of success vs. today's opponent. Indeed, he's 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.091 WHIP vs. the Jays. He faced them once this season and allowed just three hits and one run through seven innings. In that game, he had nine K's with zero walks. The final score was 6-1. That was at Boston. In his most recent start here at Toronto, he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings, a 3-0 Boston victory. Overall, he's got a microscopic 0.64 ERA his last two vs. the Jays and a 2.70 ERA his last three starts, here at Toronto.
The Red Sox have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Given the past success of both starters against today's opponent, I expect those numbers to improve here.