Dave Cokin
Matchup: Minnesota at Detroit
Time: 1:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) PAVANO, C vs. (L) OLIVER, A
Play: Minnesota (ML -115) Solid Gold Play
The Twins are definitely limping into the break, and they're having to wind thing up with another game against the surging Tigers. Detroit is playing ridiculous ball at home, so this is no cinch. But I have to believe the Twins are looking at this as a very important game, and Carl Pavano has actually been their money pitcher so far this season. On the flip side, rookie Andy Oliver looks like a good prospect but the Motown lefty has been a little overmatched so far and I like the Twins to get to him today. Road favorites trying to avoid getting swept in a three-game set are a very profitable 15-9 for the season, and I'm going to back that trend and lay the moderate price with the Twins.
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Matchup: L.A. Angels at Oakland
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) WEAVER, J vs. (R) CAHILL, T
Play: Under (7 -110)
All the ingredients for a dynamite pitching duel are in place as the Angels close their series with the A's. As noted on several prior occasions, Jered Weaver is a very dominant day game pitcher, and his 2.01 ERA this year under the sun is evidence the trend is continuing. Trevor Cahill has been lights out in daytime games as well, fashioning a brilliant 1.95 ERA, and the hot Oakland righty has a great chance to contain a Halos lineup that presently has some serious holes. Umpire Tony Randazzo is pretty neutral, so no real concern with him. There's always a little worry about Unders when the Angels bullpen gets involved, but I expect both starters to be in control today, so even at low number, playing the Angels and A's to stay Under is the selection for me.
NSA
20* Boston -125
20* Atlanta +125
20* NY Yanks -1.5
DAVID MALINSKY
4* DETROIT over MINNESOTA
Yesterday we noted the major difference in form between these teams in cashing an easy ticket behind the Tigers, a game in which they jumped to a 2-0 lead in the first inning and never trailed, and through the first two games of this series they have doubled the Twins in runs despite having six fewer outs to work with. That makes this price range impossible to pass up, as a Detroit team on a 32-12 surge at home heading to the All Star break faces a patchwork Minnesota lineup at a time in which Carl Pavano may also be starting to correct.
It is one thing to have Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer on the sidelines for the Twins, but another matter entirely when that forces Nick Punto and Drew Butera into the starting lineup. It is a big drop both offensively and defensively, and makes life much easier for Detroit rookie Andrew Oliver, who had a rocky outing vs. Baltimore on Monday that helps to set up this price point, but brings much better stuff than that to the table. And while closer Jose Valverde had worked each of the first two games in this series, he has multiple days off prior to that, and should not be impacted.
Meanwhile Pavano has had a solid 9-6/3.58 run to this point, relying on pinpoint control to overcome the fact that he is not able to miss many bats (only 65 K’s in 118 IP), but he was rocked for three home runs in an ugly showing at Toronto in his last outing, a game in which he did not get tagged for a loss because the offense bailed him out, and not having posted an ERA of less than 4.77 since coming to the A.L., his best work for 2010 may be behind him. With Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano only lasting a combined 5.2 innings the past two days the Minnesota bullpen is also in a precarious setting, and that makes this value too much to pass up.
MTi Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
The Phillies have won three straight and are attempting a four-game sweep of the Reds here. Four out of the last five Phillies’ games have went to extra frames. We’ll grab the big price in this spot.
In Cole Hamels’ last start, the Phillies lost 6-3 as a 135 favorite in extra innings. Hamels had a quality start, but the Phillies offense did score enough to reward him. This has not been a good situation for the Phillies. In fact, Philadelphia is 0-7 when Cole Hamels starts as a favorite after losing as a home favorite in his last start. His last four starts in this spot were all non-quality starts and he was a 140+ favorite in each.
Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 when Cole Hamels starts as a favorite and he is off a quality start in which they lost and 0-8 as a favorite of less than 200 in the afternoon. Yikes.
The Reds are a very nice 9-1 as a DOG of less than 200 in the last game of a series while the Phillies are a dismal 0-5 as a 160+ favorite in the last game of a home series. The lone blemish in the Reds’ 9-1 record mentioned above came when they took a 9-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth against the Braves, but lost 10-9.
The Phillies have lost Hamels’ last four starts and they have trouble turning things around for a starter. In fact, the Phillies are 0-7 as a 140+ favorite when they lost their starter’s last two starts, with the last five coming from THIS season.
Finally, the Phillies are 0-7 as a favorite of at least 150 after an extra inning win in which they allowed fewer than six runs.
Maloney was the victim of a 3-0 shutout in his last start vs Johan Santana in New York. The Reds “pick-up” their starter in this spot, as they are a perfect 5-0 as a road dog of more than 150 when they scored two or fewer runs in their starter’s last start. The opposing starters in these five games were: Lilly, Lincecum, Cain, Lowe and Penny. We like the Reds’ chances here.
MTi’s FORECAST: Cincinnati 5 PHILADELPHIA 3
Scott Rickenbach
10* Chicago / Kansas City Over
Yesterday’s game stayed under the total but the Royals are 7-4 to the over this season when they are on the road and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Also, Kansas City is 8-3 to the over in Sunday games this season which makes sense since Sunday games are usually day games and the Royals are a rock solid 17-9 to the over in day games this season. Also, Kansas City is 21-11 to the over in divisional games this season. The White Sox are 8-5 to the over this season in Sunday games and they enter Sunday’s action having scored five runs or more in seven of their last ten games. They’ve been getting fantastic pitching and that is a key as to why they’ve still been playing to the under with great regularity recently. However, that solid pitching run likely comes to an end today and that – couple with a hot ChiSox offense – is what keys this selection on the over Sunday.
The White Sox are sending rookie right-hander Daniel Hudson to the mound. Yes, he pitched well in spring training for the Sox, and yes he’s pitched well at the AAA level in the minors this season. However, neither one of those situations is the same as facing major league hitting in a regular season setting. The Royals have averaged 10.4 hits per game their last 12 games and we look for them to get to the 23 year old rookie early and often. Though Hudson pitched for the ChiSox last season, he only pitched in six games (two starts) and he totaled less than 20 innings of work. He walked 9 batters in 11 innings in his two starts and we feel nerves were an issue then and will be an issue again today as well. As for the Royals, they send starting pitcher Zack Greinke to the bump this afternoon. Greinke just faced the White Sox on June 30th and he got clobbered for six earned runs in that outing. Also, that outing came at home and he now has to give them a quick second look at US Cellular Field where the Royals right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.48 ERA and has given up 13 homers in 50 career innings! Greinke has not fared well at all in south Chicago and he’s backed by a Royals bullpen whose relievers have been hit at a .263 clip this season and that ranks 22nd among the 30 MLB teams! The Royals are 5-0 (100%) to the over in Greinke’s starts against divisional opponents. We see no reason to expect that trend to change this afternoon! Play OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Colorado / San Diego
Yesterday’s game between these teams stayed under the total. However, the Padres had previously gone over the total in four straight games and San Diego averaged nearly 12 hits per game during that offensive surge. Also, the Padres have given up an average of 10.2 hits per game in their last five games and the Rockies should hit Padres pitching hard again today. Note that Colorado has averaged 12 hits per game over their last 13 games! During this hot streak at the plate, the Rockies have gone 10-3 to the over and averaged 6.5 runs per game! This total is currently available at a 9 as of early Sunday morning and this is offering us some fantastic line value here. Note that the Padres have only stayed under twice in Clayton Richard’s last eight starts! Also note that the Rockies are 4-1 to the over in the last five starts that Jeff Francis has made.
Francis is a struggling southpaw right now as he’s gone winless in his last four starts while compiling an ugly 8.69 ERA. This included a very ugly start for the left-hander at San Diego in late June. Look for the confident Padres (hitting well before Jason Hammel shut them down yesterday) to pound Francis this afternoon. In his career, Francis is 2-5 with a 6.19 ERA in eight home starts versus the Padres. While San Diego’s Clayton Richard enjoyed a strong start against the Rockies in late June, note that he then got hammered at Washington in his very next start. Richard is 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA in his seven road starts this season. However, he’s been very fortunate as he’s been hit at a .283 clip in his 45.1 innings away from home this season. With the way the Rockies have been swinging the bats lately (and the fact that it will be a pleasant afternoon in Denver) we just don’t see Richard enjoying success at Coors Field this afternoon. In his career, righties have hit Richard 44 points higher than lefties. Also, he’s been hit 69 points higher on the road compared to at home in his career. Richard also has a 5.42 ERA in his career daytime starts – compared to a solid 3.70 ERA at night. He’s winless in two career starts at Coors Field and his 3.46 ERA there hides the fact that Richard has been hit at a .280 clip in Denver. Richard has allowed 7 homers in his last 8 starts and the Rockies will continue pounding the ball here. Play OVER the total in Colorado as an *8* Regular Play selection.
7* Detroit / Minnesota Over
With yesterday’s over, the Twins have gone 7 straight games without an under. Overall, Minnesota is 7-1-1 to the over this month and we look for another high-scoring affair in this one. The red-hot Tigers offense just won’t slow down and Detroit has averaged 6.4 runs per game in their last 8 games! The Tigers are on a 5-1 run to the over and they continue to be the best home team in the majors. Though we look for them to again hit the ball well today, we certainly wouldn’t advise backing them as a side play no matter how hot their offense has been. We say that because Andy Oliver is getting the start for Detroit this afternoon and he’s a 22 year old rookie southpaw that has struggled so far at the MLB level. Making matters worse for Oliver is that the Twins just faced him on the last day of June so they are already familiar with him. Oliver is getting hit at a .321 clip so far at the MLB level and we look for more of the same this afternoon.
As for the Twins starting pitcher, they are sending Carl Pavano to the mound this afternoon. Though he’s having a solid season and also has good career numbers against the Tigers, Pavano has shown signs of wearing down a bit in his last two starts. Each of his last two starts Pavano has lasted 6.1 innings and he gave up 9 runs (8 earned) on 15 hits (including 3 homers) in those two starts. The Tigers have averaged 6.4 runs per game in their last 7 games against right-handed starters and they should have no trouble with the offerings of Pavano in this one as his recent fade continues. The Twins have allowed at least six runs in seven straight games! Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 5.49 ERA since June 18th and that certainly ranks among the worst in the majors! On another warm afternoon at Comerica Park, the runs continue to pile up! Play OVER the total in Detroit as a *7* Regular Play selection.
BOB BALFE
Spain +105
Spain/Netherlands Under 2.5
It all comes down to this! These two teams are evenly matched, but the key to this game will is winning the time of possession category. Look for Spain to strike first and control the clock once they get ahead. This should be a great World Cup final with the Spanish taking home the glory. Take Spain and the Under.
ANDRE GOMES
Netherlands vs Uruguay
Uruguay is unquestionably the biggest surprise of this World Cup but this is it for them as I don’t think that they have the firepower to battle against Netherlands. Unlike Netherlands (who is coming from a huge win against Brazil), Uruguay is yet to face one powerful team so far in this WC. France, South Africa, Mexico, South Korea and Ghana aren’t exactly teams known for their offensive creativity and Uruguay’ great defense was able to shut down those teams.
They have indeed a terrific defensive organization but in my opinion they didn’t face a good offensive team in this WC that really could make some damage and Netherlands have all the offensive tools to torch them. Sneijder and Robben are world class talented players that are really displaying their class in the field.
Uruguay has a strong XI starting lineup but they lack quality and depth beyond the initial lineup and this is really a big problem for today because Jorge Fucile, Luis Suarez and Diego Lugano are all out for this contest and note that we are dealing with pivotal keys players for the team. (Nicolás Lodeiro is doubtfull to play as well).
The absence of Suarez on the front is really problematic for Uruguay because between him and Forlan they have scored 6 of the 7 team goals in the tournament and their offense is more predictable to defend.
On the other side Netherlands have some absences for today as well as Nigel de Jong and Gregory van der Wiel are suspended and won’t play today. However the Dutch side has some good depth on the bench as Khalid Boulahrouz and Demy de Zeeuw are effective backups.
I’m taking Netherlands in here as my Double Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Netherlands ML @ -155 on 5 Dimes
NOTE: Some strange line movement happened and we can now get Netherlands @ -133 / 1.75, I just cannot pass in here and I'm upgrading the play into a Triple Dime Play.
ADDED PLAY
Pick: 1 unit on Netherlands ML @ -133 on 5 Dimes
TEDDY COVERS
Padres/Rockies Over
Wunderdog
5 Units Detroit Tigers +110
Detroit is on fire at home, owning a 17-2 mark in their last 19 played in their own backyard. They now stand at 32-12 for the season when playing at home. The Twins are really struggling right now and stand in at 5-13 over their last 18 games. The pitching staff is mired in a deep slump as they have now gone seven straight games allowing 6 runs or more, so the bullpen is depleted as well. Carl Pavano is already approaching more innings than he has thrown since 2004, and I look for him to hit the wall. The Twins are struggling on the road vs. left-hand pitching at 15-38 in their last 53, while the Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 at home vs. a righthander. Detroit gets this one.
5 Star Sports
4* Pittsburgh / Milwaukee Under 9.5
3* Atlanta + 122
3* Chicago Cubs + 134
3* Boston / Toronto Over 9.5
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Colorado Rockies -130
4 Units Oakland Athletics PK
KELSO
50 Units Los Angeles Dodgers -140
15 Units Boston Red Sox -125
10 Units Atlanta Braves +120
Chris Jordan
200♦ TB Rays -1.5
SEABASS
300* Astros
200* Red Sox
100* Mets
BOB VALENTINO
40 Dime San Diego Padres