Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, July 18,2010

Sports Investment Group

Toronto -130

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Kansas City (+100) over Oakland

Kansas City pitcher, Brian Bannister has won 12 of the last 15 games when playing on a Sunday and he has also won 5 of the last 6 games as a home underdog of +100 or higher. Oakland has lost 21 of the last 30 road games when the line posted is between -100 to -125 and pitcher, Vin Mazzaro has lost 5 of the last 8 day games.

100* Play Colorado (+120) over Cincinnati

Cincinnati has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 12 of the last 14 games vs. Colorado. Colorado has won 8 of the last 11 games in the month of July and pitcher, Aaron Cook is 2-0 vs. Cincinnati over his career.

100* Play Tampa Bay (+120) over New York

David Price has won 15 of the last 17 games vs. division opponents and he has also won 14 of the last 16 day games. David Price is 2-0 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 2.39 and he is also 12-4 in all starts this season with an ERA of 2.42.

50* Play Los Angeles (+6.5) over San Antonio

San Antonio has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 10 games against the spread as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.

NSA

20* Red Sox -150
20* Blue Jays -140
20* Phillies -165

Totals 4 U

Top Play
SD OVER 7.5

Reg Plays
Balt UNDER 9
Tx OVER 8.5
WSox OVER 9.5
SF UNDER 7

Platinum Plays

Top Play
NYY

Reg Plays
Reds
KC
WSox
Phil

Jeff Benton

25 DIME LOS ANGELES DODGERS

10 DIME HOUSTON ASTROS

Dodgers

The Dodgers haven’t exactly come out strong to start the second half, losing the first three games of this series by scores of 7-1, 8-4 and 2-0 – and losing Manny Ramirez to yet another injury in the process. But it’s extremely difficult to sweep a four-game series in this sport, so certainly this is a strong percentage play on L.A.

But what pushes things over the top for the Dodgers is this pitching matchup. Vicente Padilla, who has certainly had his problems with consistency over the years, has been magnificent in his last four starts, allowing a total of just five runs, 17 hits and three walks in 28 2/3 innings (1.57 ERA). And although this solid run started with a 2-1 home loss to the Yankees, Padilla has since gone 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA, including a 7-0 beatdown of the Cubs last Sunday (he went a season-high eight innings).

Padilla was L.A.’s most reliaeble pitcher last October and he was on the mound in St. Louis for the clincher of a three-game divisional playoff sweep of the Cardinals, scattering four hits and a walk over seven shutout innings in a 5-1 victory. So in two career starts at Busch Stadium, Padilla has pitched 15 scoreless innings and surrendered just eight hits and one walk.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is Jeff Suppan, who is 0-5 with a 6.55 ERA this season. The veteran right-hander has made seven starts – two with Milwaukee, five with St. Louis – and not once has he made it through six innings (and only once has he lasted longer than five innings). Over his last four starts, he’s 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA.

Finally, the most telling stat that desoribes the difference between these two pitchers is this: Padilla has allowed just 57 baserunners in 55 2/3 innings this season, and he’s held opponents to a .280 on-base percentage. Suppan has allowed 107 baserunners in 55 innings, and opponents are reaching base at a .425 clip!

Enough said! Take the Dodgers to finally get into the post-All Star break win column.

Astros

Two words: Roy Oswalt. The veteran right-hander has flat-out owned the Pirates in his career, going 15-7 with a 2.50 ERA in 28 career games (27 starts) against Pittsburgh. Oswalt’s most recent gem against the Bucs was also his most recent start. On July 8, Oswalt pitched a complete-game one-hitter, walking two and striking out eight in a 2-0 home victory. Throw in a 4-3 win on April 23, and Oswalt is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA against Pittsburgh this season, giving up just two runs and five hits in 16 innings.

Since the start of the 2006 season, Oswalt has faced the Pirates 12 times and delivered 11 quality starts, with Houston going 8-4. In those 11 quality starts, Oswalt has surrendered a grand total of 10 earned runs in 77 2/3 innings (1.16 ERA).

One last point about Oswalt: Although he’s just 6-10 on the season (mainly due to the lack of run support), he sports a 3.08 ERA. And if you eliminate a 10-1 loss at Texas on June 27, Oswalt is 4-1 with a 1.26 ERA on the road.

As for Pirates starter Paul Maholm, the words “below average” come to mind. He’s 5-7 with a 4.37 ERA overall, 3-5 with a 5.80 ERA at home, and over his last six starts, he’s got a 5.68 ERA, and the Pirates are just 1-5.

If that’s not enough to convince you to jump on Houston at this cheap price, this should do it: The Astros have won seven of eight against the Pirates this season (the last six wins by more than a run) and they’re 23-7 in the last 30 head-to-head clashes.

ROCKETMAN

3* Houston Astros

Scott Rickenbach

10* San Diego / Arizona Over

We are getting a low total here because of the long-term reputation of the Padres as a low-scoring team and Petco Park as a low-scoring park. While both of these long-term assessments may be true, the current cycle is telling us that now is the time to take advantage of the extreme value we are being given here. The Padres have been hitting the ball extremely well and they’ve now seen 11 of their last 15 games go over the total. Even in home games, note that San Diego is 13-4-2 to the over in their last 19 games! That’s right, just 4 unders in the last 19 games played at “pitcher-friendly” Petco Park! Again, we’re not trying to take away from the long-term numbers here as, indeed, the Padres and Petco Park are synonymous with more unders than overs through the years. However, we’re just stating that, based on the pitching that the Padres have been getting and the way their lineup has been pounding the ball, over players are being given an extreme value play here. This total may drop to a 7 but, even at a 7.5, the ability to not have to lay any juice and, in fact, get plus money on the return is a fantastic value!

Kevin Correia gets the start for San Diego and he has not recorded a victory since May! Also, he’s coming off of a start where he allowed two homers against the Rockies. Yes, that game was at Colorado but if you think that had more to do with the thin air at Coors Field than it did with Correia’s pitching, think again! Correia has given up six homers in his last five starts at Petco Park in San Diego. Additionally, the Padres right-hander has allowed 31 earned runs in his last 41 innings of work. That equates to a 6.80 ERA for Correia and he’s also struggled with his command of late. Correia has walked 14 in his last 22.1 innings of work. He’s just 3-4 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season and he’s compiled a 4.53 ERA there. In four day starts this season Correia has compiled a 7.79 ERA while being hammered at a .342 clip!

Correia is opposed by Edwin Jackson of the Diamondbacks. The Arizona right-hander is winless in six career games – four starts – against the Padres in his career. Jackson has compiled a 5.31 ERA in those outings. Also, in his last eight starts Jackson has walked an average of four batters per outing! His command has been off and he’s also allowed at least four runs in four of his last six outings! Jackson has been hit at a .317 clip in day games this season, compiled a 4.13 ERA in day games last season, a 5.20 ERA in day games the prior season – 2008, a 6.53 ERA in day games in 2007, and was pounded at a .340 clip in day games in 2006 and a .316 clip in day games in 2005. You can see the pattern here and we love the fact that he’s contending with a Padres lineup that has suddenly caught fire. San Diego has averaged over 5 runs per game in their last 19 home games! That’s not bad for Petco Park. As far as overall games, the Padres enter this game having averaged over 6 runs per game in their last 13 games! The Diamondbacks come into this game having gone 55-31 to the over this season in games played on a grass field. Arizona is also 16-9 to the over in day games this season. The Diamondbacks bullpen also ranks last in the majors with a 6.75 ERA and opponents are pounding their relievers at a .301 clip! The Dbacks are 3-1 to the over in Jackson’s four day game starts. The Padres are 7-1 to the over in Correia’s last eight starts and, on the season, they are 4-0 to the over in his four day game starts! Play OVER the total in San Diego as a *10* Top Play selection.

7* Cleveland / Detroit Over

We had to wait on this one due to the overnight pitching change to Jeanmar Gomez for the Indians. As a result of the change, there was no line available on this one until about three hours before game time so we will definitely go shorter than usual on the details for this one. We like the fact that these teams are off of a double-header yesterday where the teams second game went 11 innings. As a result, the teams have combined to use 19 innings of bullpen work in the first three games of this four game set! That is great news for over players as the bullpens have been used for a ton of action just in the last two days alone and now we have teams squaring off who are both using unproven pitchers. The Indians hand the ball to Gomez for his MLB debut. How well can it possibly go when his minor league numbers are 6-8 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP this season? The fact is that he’s likely to get pounded and be forced to an early exit. That opens up the door with a bullpen that has been over-extended the last two days.

As for the Tigers, they send Andy Oliver to the mound and he’s winless so far in his first four starts at the MLB level. He’s been pounded at a .314 clip while compiling an ugly 6.38 ERA so far. Worse yet is that things have been getting worse in stead of better for the rookie southpaw. Oliver has allowed 15 runs (11 earned) in his last three starts and those outings have only totaled 12.1 innings! That doesn’t bode well for what’s on tap for him this afternoon. The Tigers were 6-1-1 to the over before each game in yesterday’s double-header stayed under the total. As for the Indians, they were 5-3 to the over in their last eight games before yesterday’s twin-bill. Also, the bullpen of the Tribe has compiled a 4.48 ERA and a .271 BAA so far this season. Each of those marks are among the worst in the league so far this season. Play OVER the total in Cleveland as a *7* Regular Play selection.

6* Philadelphia Money Line (-) @ Chicago Cubs

As long-time followers know, we play mostly totals in the baseball and when we do play sides we have a strong tendency toward underdogs and small favorites. Very rarely do we get into the moderate price range for favorites and we certainly avoid the large favorites as if they have the plague! That said, this one truly is at the upper reaches of where we like to play but after seeing numbers around -155 for the Phillies this one was on our radar screen. Now, even though the price has been on the rise, we simply still like this one way too much to just let it pass us by. You will notice that our specification on the pitchers above says “Halladay vs action”. The reason for this is that we feel Roy Halladay is the key to this play and so, even if Tom Gorzelanny would not get the start, we would still back the Phillies here. Halladay has simply phenomenal stuff and it is our belief that Philadelphia did some real good for him by giving him extra rest after the All Star Break. Additionally, the Phillies had the kind of win yesterday that a team can really build off of and, at the same time, the Cubs suffered a loss that is the type that can really sting a team for a long period of time. Philly was down 1-0 in the top of the 9th when they rallied for four runs…all with two outs! Carlos Marmol couldn’t find the plate and the Phillies took advantage of the struggles of the Cubs closer.

Philly will build off of yesterday’s win as they take advantage of a hurler whom they already faced this season and whom had struggled for each of the last two seasons before enjoying some success with the Cubbies this season. The Phillies struggled against Gorzelanny when they faced him earlier this season but that was the first time they had seen him in three years. Now they get a second look and Gorezelanny has just one win his eight games – six starts – at home. Also, the southpaw has a 4.24 ERA at Wrigley Field where he’s been hit at a .269 clip. He’s also just 1-4 in night games this season. In his career, Gorzelanny is 13-8 in day games but 20-25 in night games! The Phillies are 5-2 their last seven games while the Cubs are just 3-4 their last seven games. The Phils are 35-24 in night games this season while the Cubbies are 19-25 under the lights. The Phillies are 77-52 against southpaw hurlers the last three seasons while the Cubbies are a miserable 26-35 against right-handed starters this season. The Cubs have won just one of Gorzelanny’s five night starts! The Phillies are 8-2 in Halladay’s ten starts where he is a favorite of less than -200 this season. Halladay has been simply amazing against National League opponents this season. Though he struggled some in interleague action, note that he’s allowed two earned runs or less in 13 of his 15 starts against National League opponents. We expect him to dominate the Cubs lineup tonight and we look for the Phillies to build off of yesterday’s 9th inning comeback win and improve to 6-2 in their last eight games. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a *6* Regular Play selection.

Bill Marzano

Matchup: Chi. White Sox at Minnesota
Time: 2:10 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) GARCIA, F vs. (R) BLACKBURN, N

Play: Chi. White Sox (ML +100)

I really like the Chicago White Sox in this game vs the Minnesota Twins...this is a big game for both teams as the Sox look for the split and who better to have on the hill than F.Garcia...he is 9-3 on the season with a 4.36 ERA and hasn't lost a game in nearly two months and will be going for his seventh straight win...N.Blackburn on the other hand is just 7-7 on the season with a 6.40 ERA and is just 1-6 over his last nine starts...the White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game...21-5 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter...6-0 in Garcias last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance...8-0 in Garcias last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5...the Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game...1-12 in Blackburns last 13 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game...Chicago White Sox are the play here

David Banks

Yankees -130
Braves -165
Red Sox -145
Astros -137
Twins -105
Mets -108

BOB AKMENS

10* Toronto
10* LA Dodgers
10* LA Angels
10* San Diego

Paul Leiner

100* Astros -140

50* Yanks -135

50* Red Sox -150

LENNY DEL GENIO

VEGAS ICON - LA ANGELS

JR O'Donnell

Mets/ Giants Over 6.5

Kaboom goes Jr yesterday as the we sweep the ticket and roll into the Sunday late afternoon ticket on fire! The Mets are ready to hit today vs the J Sanchez show today. The Mets are off a 8-4 loss last night and they will get to Sanchez who is 0-1 with a 4.94 ERA the last 4 times he has toed the rubber. The Mets counter with Santana who is 2-0 with a 3.89 ERA in 7 games vs these Giants.