Dave Cokin
NY Mets/LA Dodgers Under 7
Toronto Blue Jays
COKIN'S PLAY IS ON GAME 2!
Dave Cokin
Matchup: N.Y. Mets at L.A. Dodgers
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) DICKEY, R.A. vs. (L) KERSHAW, C
Play: Under (7 -110)
All indicators point to yet another low-scoring game between the Mets and Dodgers. New York's offense has been mostly in deep hibernation on this road trip, and it sure doesn't get any easier against the very tough southpaw serves of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers have also had issues scoring runs lately and RA Dickey has been a revelation for the Mets. Dickey has 10/12 quality starts, while Kershaw has done the same in all but two of his home starts this season. Dana DeMuth will be calling the balls and strikes, and he's an additional plus for the hurlers. The fact these teams played a very long game on Saturday means the bullpens are not fresh, but both teams are also off on Monday, so the managers will be free to use their entire arsenals if necessary. With neither team hitting and expected solid starts from Dickey and Kershaw, the Under again looks like a winner.
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Matchup: Toronto at Detroit
Time: 6:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LITSCH, J vs. (R) BONDERMAN, J
Play: Toronto (ML +115)
Jesse Litsch won't ever win any Cy Young Awards, but as a rule the gritty Toronto righty is crafty enough to keep his team in the game. That has a very good chance to be good enough to garner a win as he squares off against the depleted Tigers. Detroit may be fielding some shock troops in the back end of this twin bill, as Magglio Ordonez now joins Brandon Inge on the disabled list. I would also guess that Carlos Guillen will be on the bench for at least one of the Sunday games with his achy calf, so it's more likely that will be the second game of the double dip. Jeremy Bonderman has been extremely prone to the long ball lately, giving up at least one HR in nine consecutive starts. That's big against a Blue Jays squad that can bomb with anyone. Looks to me like an excellent value spot with the Tigers being favored, so Toronto at plus money is the selection
Teddy Covers
Road Warrior - Blue Jays Game 1
Executive
250% Cubs
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Atlanta -135
1 Unit Cincinnati -127
1 Unit Detroit +104
KELSO
25 Units Saint Louis Cardinals -120
15 Units San Diego Padres -140
10 Units Boston Red Sox -145
3 Units Tampa Bay Devil Rays -145
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves -145
The Braves and Marlins meet in the rubber match of this three-games series when Jair Jurrjens meets Chris Volstad at Sun Life Stadium Sunday afternoon. Jurrjens enter today's game with four consecutive team starts wins since coming off the DL. He's also 6-1 his last seven team starts during the month of July. On the flip side, Volstad is just 1-10 in his last 11 team starts, including 0-6 his last six at home. With Volstad owning a 6.60 ERA in his last three starts in July, look for Jurrjens to improve to 5-2 lifetime in his team starts in this series. We recommend a 3-unit play on Atlanta.
Billy Coleman
4* Phil
4* StL
3* Milw R/L
3* Cinn Under
Jeff Benton
15 DIME CLEVELAND INDIANS
15 DIME BALTIMORE ORIOLES
15 DIME CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Indians
Although very few are noticing, Cleveland is playing its best baseball of the season right now. It has won seven of nine since the All-Star break, including five of six at home. Going Back to June 28, the Indians are on a 10-3 roll at Progressive Field.
Speaking of the Tribe’s ballpark, it has been a house of horrors for the Tampa Bay Rays, who had lost 18 consecutive games at Progressive Field prior to rallying for Saturday’s 6-3 victory. And while the Indians have been playing solid ball, the Rays are sputtering. They’ve alternated wins and losses in their eight games since the break, with all eight of those contests on the road.
As for this pitching matchup, not much separates Tampa Bay rookie Wade Davis (7-9, 4.41 ERA) from Cleveland’s Justin Masterson (3-8, 5.25 ERA). And in fact, Masterson has better home numbers (3.91 ERA) than Davis has road numbers (4.68 ERA).
Granted, Masterson has had his struggles against the Rays in his career (1-3, 6.49 ERA). However, he’s coming off one of his better outings of the season, leading Cleveland to a 4-3 win at Minnesota on Tuesday as he yielded the three runs in 6 1/3 innings. And the last time Masterson pitched at home, he dominated the Blue Jays, giving up one run in 8 1/3 innings of a 6-1 victory.
Given Davis’ inconsistency (especially on the road) and the Rays’ lengthy struggles in Cleveland, this is a tremendous underdog value play on the Tribe.
Orioles
Just cannot justify the Twins being favored with Kevin Slowey on the hill. Minnesota has come up empty in each of Slowey’s last three starts, as he gave up 13 runs in 15 innings (7.80 ERA). Since June 13, Slowey has made seven starts and allowed 31 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings (8.37 ERA), and Minnesota is 2-5 during this stretch.
Slowey has struggled on the highway this year, going 3-2 with a 5.98 ERA (including allowing 17 runs in his last three road starts covering just 14 innings). And he’s 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against the Orioles.
Pitching opposite Slowey today is Baltimore rookie Jacob Arrieta, who has five quality outings – at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or less– in eight starts, with the O’s going 5-3. And in fact Arrieta’s ERA (4.87) is better than Slowey’s (4.94).
The Orioles have held their own against the Twins this season (3-4 in seven contests), and they’re 4-2 in the last five meetings at Camden Yards. Throw in the fact Minnesota is in slumps of 5-10 on the road, 27-55 against teams from the A.L. East, 3-13 in Slowey’s last 16 starts against the A.L. East and 0-5 in Slowey’s last five Sunday efforts, and again, there’s a lot of value on the ‘dog.
White Sox
Chicago rookie right-hander Daniel Hudson has made four big-league starts prior to today (two this year, two last year0, and he delivered the goods in three of those contests. That includes Monday’s 6-1 victory at Seattle, as he limited the Mariners to a run on five hits with six strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. Since losing his major-league debut 7-0 to the Twins last September 21, Hudson has led the White Sox to three straight wins.
Meanwhile, I don’t know what’s happened to A’s lefty Dallas Braden, but he has not been the same since his Mother’s Day perfect game. In fact, since that historic performance, the A’s are 1-8 with Braden on the mound. That one victory came on Tuesday against the Red Sox, but Braden was hardly sharp, giving up four runs (one earned) on 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings. It was his first start on a major-league mound in a month, as he returned from a stint on the disabled list.
Overall, the A’s are just 6-10 with Braden on the hill this year, losing four of his last five at home (the one win was against Boston on Monday). Oakland is also 6-14 in its last 20 games against winning teams, 1-5 in Braden’s last six starts as a favorite and 4-10 in Braden’s last 14 Sunday affairs. And while the White Sox have hit a bit of a rough patch lately – they fell to 3-5 in their last eight after Saturday’s 10-2 loss to Oakland – they’ve still won 31 of their last 42 games. And only three times during this stretch has Chicago dropped back-to-back contests.
Lenny Del Genio
SF Giants -145
The Giants are playing very good baseball right now having won eight of their last ten games with the two losses by a total of three runs. This afternoon they send their ace Lincecum to the mound. The Giants righty is once again having a very strong season with a 14-6 team start record and 3.18 ERA. Pitching away from home he’s posted an 8-2 team start record. One of those road losses was to these D’Backs back in May when he was in a control problem stretch allowing five walks in five innings of work. However, prior to that one outing he’s faced Arizona three times last year and he was nearly unhittable going 23 innings and allowing only three earned runs. One of those games was here in the desert and his line read eight innings, one earned run, and 12 strikeouts. The D’Backs give the ball to Enright and he will be making only his fifth start of the season. He’s pitched well so far with a 2.66 ERA but he’ll struggle today against this hot Giant squad, and knowing that he’s going to have to be nearly perfect to beat Lincecum. The D’Backs have struggled big time this season against good starting pitchers posting a 8-26 record against starters like Lincecum who have an ERA of 3.50 or better. The Giants have won the first four games of this series and they get out the brooms this afternoon.
DWAYNE BRYANT
ST LOUIS
St. Louis Cardinals -123
St. Louis has dropped the first two games of this series and, as a result, they've fallen out of first place in the NL Central. I like their chances to avoid the sweep tonight on ESPN.
Chris Carpenter is 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA against the Cubs over the last 10 years. He threw 6.2 innings of 1-run ball at Wrigley Field back on May 28th. Carpenter is only getting stronger as the season progresses. He's allowed just 2 runs on 9 hits in his last two starts, spanning 16 innings. He also had a 10/1 K/BB ratio in those two starts. Those stellar recent results seem to be coming from an adjustment in his delivery, which was bothering him earlier this season.
"I will continue to work on (my delivery) between starts and try to get better again," Carpenter said after his last start. "I was throwing a lot of good sinkers, and they were hitting them into the ground. Early in the count, getting quick outs. And that's what happens when you throw quality pitches early in the count against a team that wants to hit."
Ryan Dempster has good overall numbers and good numbers at home, but he has trouble with this St. Louis lineup. Over the last five years against Dempster: Matt Holliday is 3 for 8; the returning Ryan Ludwick is batting .421 with a homer in 19 AB; Yadier Molina is hitting .318 in 22 AB; Brendan Ryan is hitting .286 with a homer in 7 AB; Skip Schumaker is batting .419 in 31 AB; Albert Pujols is hitting a mediocre .250, but does have 2 homers in 32 AB. On May 30th at Wrigley, Dempster faced the Cards and allowed 6 runs on 9 hits (2 homers) in 6.2 innings.
As far as bullpens go, I have to give the edge to St. Louis. While the road numbers for the Cards' pen are pretty even with the Cubs pen's home numbers, it's the Cards' pen that is performing better right now. Over their last 10 games, the St. Louis pen owns a 1.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The Cubs pen sports a 5.59 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over their last 10 games.
Bottom line: I give the Cards the edge in starting pitching and in the bullpen. The return of Ryan Ludwick should provide a spark to a lineup that has lost three straight games, but has done well against Dempster. Speaking of losing three straight games, the Cards are 3-1 this season in games following a third straight loss. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Carpenter's last 4 starts vs. the Cubs, while the Cubs are 0-4 in Dempster's last 4 starts vs. the Cardinals. Sure looks like a great spot for the Cards to avoid the embarrassing sweep. Take St. Louis/Carpenter over Chicago/Dempster.
Michael Cannon
30 Dime Cincinnati
Master Sports
3* Red Sox
Andrew Lange
20* Indians
Power Play Wins
Cardinals -122
SEABASS
300* STL
200* CINN
100* BOS
50* KC
50* BALT OVER
200* Steam HOU UNDER