Derek Mancini
60 Dime - Cubs
Loving this spot for the resurgent Cubs, who've responded to Piniella's retirement announcement with some strong efforts in winning 3 of their L4 games. Moreover, it was Piniella's decision to shake up the batting order that has really got his club rocking and rolling. Moving Colvin and Castro to the top of the order seems like a genius move, and it's paying instant dividends with the Cubs scoring 7.2 runs per game (batting .321) since the change July 18th. Castro has been especially hot (.489 L11 games), and for those of you thinking this is going to be an easy match up for Carpenter... You've haven't been watching the Cubs lately.
Its tough to argue against Carpenter (11-3, 3.05 ERA), but let's not forget he's just a couple starts removed from a pair of ugly efforts to begin the month. He now has to face a red-hot Cubs offense, which should do better in their second go around against him this season. Most bettors seem to think this is a major mismatch for Dempster (8-7, 3.70 ERA), but he's pitched quality efforts in 3 of his last 4 home starts, including excellent outings against the high-powered Reds and Phillies offenses. He had a slight slip-up against the Astros in his last one, but that's even more reason to believe he'll come out sharp tonight.
The best news for Dempster is he's catching the Cardinals in the midst of a mini-slump at the plate, which is significant. Betting baseball is all about timing, and right now, there's no question the Cardinals are ice-cold, while the Cubs are red-hot (in the short-term at least). St. Louis is batting just .175 in their L3 games - not good, especially when the Cubs are playing with a new found confidence. Gamblers are counting on the "avoid the sweep" angle to bail them out here, but buyer beware, there's a reason the Cardinals are only slight favorites tonight.
Price on this game is nothing short of a trap, making it so very easy to lay it with Carpenter. But instead of blindly playing the Cardinals - ask yourself: why is it so cheap to play Carpenter in this spot, in an "avoid the sweep" type situation. The answer is simple... Oddsmakers are begging for Cardinals money. Not falling for it. Cubs (Dempster) over Cardinals (Carpenter) Sunday night.