JEFF BENTON
50 Dime Yankees -1½
The Yankees’ bats woke up in a big way Saturday (much to my chagrin, as I lost a play on the UNDER), and they cruised to a 11-3 victory. Now New York gets a second crack at Blue Jays right-hander Brandon Morrow. Back on June 6 in Canada, Morrow pitched a gem against the Yankees, allowing just one run on four hits and one walk with eight strikaouts in seven innings, but Toronto’s bullpen fell apart in the eighth inning and lost 4-3.
That Morrow dominated the Yankees in Toronto wasn’t all that shocking in retrospect. That’s because Morrow has been outstanding in three home starts, posting a 2.25 ERA (five earned runs allowed in 20 innings). On the road, it’s been totally different start for Morrow, who is 0-5 with a 6.69 ERA in eight starts. Now he has to pitch in one of the tougheest pitcher’s parks in all of baseball … one of the toughest for the majority of hurlers, anyway.
I say majority because New York’s Phil Hughes has been pretty solid at home this year. Yes, he’s struggled in his last three home outings (2-1 despite a 6.87 ERA). But prior to that, Hughes had gone 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA in his first five home starts. Overall, despite his recent struggles, Hughes is still 10-2 with a 3.58 in 14 starts, and the Yankees are 11-3 in those 14 games, including 7-1 at home. One of the reasons for the Yankees’ success when Hughes pitches? They average a whopping 7.4 runs, including an even 8 runs per game at home!
And here’s the best part: All 11 of New York’s victories when Hughes starts have been by more than one run. In fact, 14 of Hughes’ 15 starts have been decided by multiple runs. Then again, that’s hardly surprising since 42 of New York’s 49 victories have been by more than one run.
One more point about Hughes: He’s made four starts against Toronto since Septomber 2007 and he’s allowed just eight earned runs in 25 innings (2.88 ERA), and the Yankees won those four games by a combined score of 30-17.
Toronto has lost 10 of its last 13 games, and its anemic offense (.237 team batting average) just cannot produce runs right now (the Jays have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 games).
Rocketman
3* LA Dodgers +105
LA Dodgers are 44-36 overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 32-49 overall record on the season. LA Dodgers are 22-6 overall this year against division opponents. LA Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games overall. Arizona is 8-16 this year in day games. Arizona bullpen has a 6.89 ERA overall this year and a 6.48 ERA at home this season. Chad Billingsley is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA on the road this year. Dan Haren is 0-2 his last 3 starts. LA Dodgers have won 9 of 11 meetings this year against Arizona. We'll play the LA Dodgers for 3 units today!
KIKI SPORTS
1 Unit Milwaukee +1.45
1 Unit Cincinnati +1.15
1 Unit Seattle -1.20
JASON JOHNSON
Marlins at Braves
Pick: Braves -165
Hudson's been especially effective at home. He lost his first start at Turner Field on April 21, but is 5-0 with a 1.30 ERA in his last five outings.
His lone start against the Marlins (37-43) came May 27 in rain-soaked South Florida. He allowed two runs over four innings, but didn't come back after a 77-minute rain delay in Atlanta's 8-3 win.
Hudson is 8-2 with a 2.99 ERA in 16 career starts versus Florida.
Ricky Nolasco (7-6, 4.84) is 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA in five starts at Turner Field, but plenty of Atlanta's lineup has enjoyed facing him. Jones is a .464 (13 for 28) hitter with four homers against Nolasco, Brian McCann is batting .323 (10 for 31) with four homers and Escobar is hitting .417 (10 for 24). Take the Braves on their home turf in a close game
DAVE COKIN
Seattle Mariners
Arizona Diamond Backs
KELSO
50 Units Philadelphia Phillies -135
15 Units Cleveland Indians -125
10 Units Saint Louis Cardinals -150
Totals 4 U
Top Play
NYY OVER 9
Reg Plays
Det UNDER 7
NYM OVER 8.5
Colo OVER 8
LAD UNDER 9.5
BIG AL
St. Louis Cardinals
Texas Rangers
PLATINUM PLAYS
TOP PLAY
Cincinnati Reds
REGULAR PLAYS
Pittsburgh Pirates
Colorado Rockies
SD Padres
Atlanta Braves
Great Lakes Sports
3* Rockies
Teddy Covers
Mets/Nats Over 8.5
Rays/Twins Over 9
ATS LOCK CLUB
Seattle Mariners
Philadelphia Phillies
Tampa Bay Rays
Wunderdog
5 Units Boston Red Sox -1.5
These two starting pitchers have similar stats (4.90 ERA for Matusz and 4.46 for Lackey). But, their W-L records contrast starkly. One plays for Baltimore and the other, Boston. Matusz is 2-9 while Lackey is 9-3. Boston has won the first two games in this series and there's no reason to think anything different will occur here. The O's are 8-31 on the road this season and 8-27 in division games. They score only 3.1 per game on the road, while Boston gets 5.7 per game at home. Boston has also fared very well vs. LHP like Matusz, averaging 6.0 runs per game vs. southpaws. When facing a victorious team this season, the Orioles are just 9-38. Meanwhile, Lackey has won 17 of his last 18 starts vs. teams that get outscored by 1+ run per game. I like Boston here and will back them on the runline.
Billy Coleman
4* Boston -1.5
3* Seattle
3* Phil Over
3* Angels -1.5
3* Tex Under
FIVE STAR SPORTS
4* LA / Arizona Under 9
3* St Louis
3* San Diego
3* Baltimore