BOB BALFE
Italy -1.5
Although Italy has only scored four goals in their last six matches, they will be able to give their offensive stats a couple of boosts against New Zealand today. Italy is the defending champion and losing or tying today could jeopardize their advancement out of the first round. We saw what Italy is capable of when they were in panic mode and scored to force a tie during stoppage time, so they are definitely a team that plays best when their backs against the wall. Look for them to come out swinging today. Take Italy in a lopsided win.
Ivory Coast/Brazil over 2.5
Look for Brazil to open a big first half differential and then Ivory Coast to play desperately and sloppy. Brazil should see be able to capitalize on IC's mistakes and get plenty of opportunities to run away with the group. They may win this game and hit the over themselves without any assistance from IC. Take Brazil -1.5 and the Over.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
After a demoralizing loss last night in the 9th inning, the Phillies will collectively outplay the Twins this afternoon. All of the bats are starting to operate and they have their best pitcher on the mound. This should be an extremely easy win for the Phillies as they go against a mediocre-at-best Carl Pavano (7-6, 3.92 ERA), so let's take advantage of the runline and go with the Phils -1.5.
Paul Leiner
50* NYY/NYM Over 8.5
25* Cubs -130
KIKI SPORTS
1 Unit Tampa Bay +111
1 Unit Cubs -128
1 Unit Mets +160
Dwayne Bryant
TB Rays +112
Josh Johnson has been absolutely dominant of late, but I kept getting pulled back to the Rays in this one. And when it comes right down to it, if I don't "feel it," then I can't pull the trigger. Back to Johnson. Johnson has been nearly flawless in his last seven starts, going 4-1 with a 0.55 ERA. But a few Rays have had success against Johnson, including Evan Longoria (3-for-7, 1 double), B.J. Upton (2-for-6 with a double and a triple), Carlos Pena (.500 OBP), and Carl Crawford (a double and a .333 OBP).
David Price has been almost as "lights out" as Johnson. And when it comes to daytime starts this season, Price (5-0, 2.16 ERA & 1.11 WHIP in 5 starts) has been even better than Johnson (3-1, team is 3-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). Only ONE key Florida hitter has had any success against Price and that was Hanley Ramirez, who is 1-for-3 with a single. And Ramirez is not expected to play due to a hamstring injury. Cantu, Coghlan, Paulino, Ross, and Uggla are a combined 0-for-11 against Price.
Even with two great hurlers on the bump, we should still see an inning or two from the bullpens. MAJOR edge to the Rays here (even though they stumbled last night). The Rays bullpen owns a 2.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .212 BAA on the road. Florida's pen sports a 5.23 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and .266 BAA at home. Over their last 5 games, that Marlins pen has produced a 7.16 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, and .295 BAA. Yikes!
I expect a tight, low-scoring game with the bullpens deciding it late. That should lead to a win for the Rays. Take Tampa Bay/Price over Florida/Johnson.
Cal Sports
4* POD TB Rays
JR O'Donnell
2* Los Dodgers + 145
Just way to much value here boys as the Los Dodgers Kuroda has smoked 2 National league contenders the Cards and Hot Cinncy Reds. He is not afraid to pitch in vaunted Fenway and the 38-30 Los Dodgers are patient enough to scratch out some runs off C Buchholtz. The Dodgers need to steal one here vs the Bosox and we feel that the Manny R lead crew is ready to win on Sunday Night in front of the National TV venue.
Lenny Del Genio
NY Yankees -135
The Yankees snapped the Mets eight game winning streak last night with a 5-3 win. Great pitching matchup this afternoon when Santana takes on Sabathia. These two lefties hooked up back on 5/23. Pitching in front of his home crowd Santana got the best of Sabathia beating the Yankees 6-4. Santana went 7 2/3 strong innings allowing only six hits and one run. Sabathia was beat up by the Mets allowing 10 hits and five earned runs in only five innings of work. However, this game today is in Yankee Stadium. This will be the first time that the Mets face C.C. here. Meanwhile, Santana pitched on the road against the Yankees last year and it wasn’t pretty as he was roughed up for 9 hits and 9 runs in only three innings of work. June hasn’t been a good month for Santana as the Mets lefty has a 4-11 team start record in June. Sunday is the Yankees day. The Bronx Bombers are an incredible 27-4 at home on Sunday over the last three seasons. Sabathia gets revenge today at home and pitches the Yankees to a win.
Marc Lawrence
4* Florida -130
Note: When the Marlins close out their three game series with state rival Tampa Bay they will send ace right-hander Josh Johnson to the hill against David Price and the Rays at Sun Life Stadium in Miami this afternoon. Johnson takes the mound knowing he is 5-2 in his last seven team starts with an eye-opening 0.55 ERA. He's also 4-1 in his last five home team starts in June and 2-0 in his career team starts in this series. With Price in off an inside out win in his last start when he allowed eight hits while surrendering three walks in five innings of work in a 10-4 win over the Braves at Atlanta on Tuesday, look for Johnson to continue his winning ways here today. We recommend a 4-unit play on Florida.
Scott Rickenbach
8* Boston / Dodgers Over
The Red Sox start Clay Buchholz tonight and he’s got a 9-4 record and a 2.67 ERA on the season. The Dodgers start Hiroki Kuroda and he’s got a 6-4 record and a 3.10 ERA on the season. As a result, many are likely surprised to see that the posted total on this game is 9.5 runs. However, don’t be fooled. On a warm evening in Boston with favorable weather conditions for an over, we would not be surprised to see both lineups hammering the ball this evening. Yesterday’s game stayed under the total but it was the 8th time in 9 games that Boston reached double digits in hits. In fact, during this 9-game stretch the Red Sox have averaged nearly 12 hits per game! In their last 10 games, Boston’s pitchers have allowed nearly 9 hits per game and their bullpen has not been the strength it’s been in recent seasons. The Red Sox bullpen ranks 19th in the majors while the Dodgers bullpen ranks 12th based on team ERA. Before yesterday’s under, the Dodgers had seen 9 of their last 13 games go over the total. The Dodgers are 10-5 to the over this season when the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. The Red Sox are 6-3 to the over this season as a home favorite of -150 to -175. At home, with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Red Sox have gone 14-10 to the over this season. The Dodgers have allowed an average of 10.5 hits per game in their last 8 games. Now, more on those starting pitchers. Though Kuroda shows solid full-season numbers, note that his last two starts were preceded by an unimpressive stretch. From early May through early June, Kuroda made six starts where he allowed 25 runs (20 earned) on 45 hits in 34.2 innings of work. We simply are not “sold” on Kuroda…especially in terms of shutting down one of the best offenses in baseball.
The Red Sox, even without JD Drew, have a very potent lineup that is known for huge performances at the plate at Fenway Park. The issue tonight for Boston, surprising to some, is that Buchholz may indeed struggle in this match-up. Yes, his full-season numbers are great but Buchholz has walked four batters or more in four of his last eight starts and the Dodgers lineup ranks 2nd in the National League for team batting average on the road. Also, Buchholz did allow 7 hits to the Diamondbacks in his most recent start and he only completed 5.2 innings in that outing. In fact, the Red Sox right-hander has allowed 39 hits in his last 38 innings at Fenway Park. It’s not like this guy is unhittable here. Additionally, in his last 44 innings on the mound in Boston, 22 runs have crossed the plate. Not all of those have been earned runs but you can see the point. This is a hitter-friendly park, it’s a hitter-friendly night in terms of the weather, and we’ve got two solid lineups squaring off. The Red Sox are hitting .278 against right-handed pitchers this season (ranks 3rd in the American League). The Dodgers are hitting .274 against right-handed pitching this season (ranks 2nd in the National League). There will be a lot more offense than many are expecting on this warm evening at Fenway Park. Play OVER the total in Boston as an *8* Regular Play selection.
10* Seattle / Cincinnati Over
The Reds have struggled to score runs so far in this series but they’ve faced two very tough pitchers, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez. Now, on Sunday, Cincinnati finally catches a break. The Reds will be facing Ryan Rowland-Smith of the Mariners. The southpaw is 0-6 this season with a 6.63 ERA and a .332 BAA. He has as many walks as strikeouts this season and Rowland-Smith comes into this outing having allowed 11 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in his last 9.2 inning on the mound. The Mariners left-hander is facing a Reds team that is tops in the National League for team batting average and slugging percentage. Yes, they’ve been held quiet so far in this series but they’ve faced Seattle’s top southpaw and top right-hander and today should prove to be a major reprieve for the Reds sticks. Look for them to come back to life against Rowland-Smith. The under yesterday was just the 5th for Cincinnati in their last 13 games. As for Seattle, they are 11-8 to the over in day games this season and the Mariners are 28-18 to the over the last three seasons when they are a home dog of +100 to +125. The Reds are 20-11 to the over this season when the posted total on their game is an 8 or 8.5 runs. With Aaron Harang on the mound, we look for the Reds to end up adding another winner to the over column in that year to date record.
Cincinnati’s Harang got rocked for five earned runs in 4.1 innings in his most recent start and that was at home! Note that, on the road this season, the Reds right-hander has recorded just 1 win in his five starts while compiling a 6.58 ERA and getting crushed at a .363 clip! We are well aware of the fact that Harang has good numbers against the Mariners in his career but he’s struggled this season. As for Seattle’s recent stretch of unders – four straight – note that it was preceded by a stretch where the Mariners only had one under in ten games! Part of this is due to poor bullpen work and that is likely to be an issue again for each of these teams as they send two struggling hurlers to the mound this afternoon. Note that Cincinnati and Seattle have bullpen ERA’s that rank them 24th and 25th, respectively, out of the 30 MLB teams. The point is that both bullpens have been a weakness for these teams this season! Couple that with the fact that both starters are likely to struggle in this afternoon affair and you have the makings of a match-up that is likely to easily get into double digits in runs scored. Play OVER the total in Seattle as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Yankees / Mets Over
We lost with this play yesterday and we won’t hesitate to come right back with it today. Saturday’s total was an 8.5 and the game was 5-3 through 4 innings and looking great. Inexplicably, those holding over tickets (like us) ended up holding a losing ticket! In the top of the 6th the Mets had 1st and 2nd and just one out but then grounded into an inning-ending double play. In the bottom of the 6th the Yankees had 1st and 2nd and just one out but failed to score. In the top of the 8th the Mets stranded a man in scoring position while, in the bottom of the 8th the unthinkable happened. The Yankees had 2nd and 3rd and NO outs and yet didn’t score. Yes indeed, it was just one of those games that is so frustrating to deal with. There is a lot of pop in both of these lineups, even if Derek Jeter sits out again today, and that is why we won’t hesitate to come right back with this play. The Mets have been on a long-term red-hot run, Yankee Stadium is a hitter-friendly park, the Yanks hit the ball very well at home, and we’re getting a very low total to work with here on a very warm afternoon in the Bronx. Of course the reason for the low total here is the pitching match-up but we feel there is absolute justification for expecting each of these hurlers to struggle in this spot.
Johan Santana of the Mets has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts. Also, in the span of his last three starts, the southpaw has walked 11 while striking out just 5 batters. That is certainly not vintage Santana and note that the southpaw was absolutely crushed in his only career start in the new Yankee Stadium. His counterpart today is CC Sabathia and he got absolutely crushed earlier this season when he faced the Mets. By the way, this is another edge in today’s match-up: these lineups have already faced these pitchers this season and that takes away the normal edge of a lack of familiarity for hitters with the pitchers in an interleague match-up. As for Sabathia, he not only struggled against the Mets earlier this season, he’s allowed 28 earned runs on 51 hits and 14 walks in his last 49.2 innings of work. That equates to a 5.07 ERA over his last eight starts. As you can see, he’s certainly not been dominant and he’s facing a Mets team that has averaged 5.5 runs per game in going 8-1 in their last 9 games. Also, the Mets are 8-2 to the over on Sundays this season and 33-18 to the over the last three seasons when they are on the road and the total is an 8 or 8.5 runs! Note that the Yankees are 7-3 to the over on Sundays this season. The Yanks have averaged 5.3 runs per game in their last 11 games and are the top hitting team in the league in home games! Play OVER the total in New York as an *8* Regular Play selection.
KELSO
25 Units White Sox -105
10 Units Rangers -155
3 Units LA Angels +120
5 Units Mets +160
5 Units Mets/Yankees UNDER 8.5
5 Unit Parlay Both
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Oakland at St Louis
Time: 2:15 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CAHILL, T vs. (R) SUPPAN, J
Play: Oakland (ML +107)
Jeff Suppan had a mildly successful outing in his return to St. Louis, but I refuse to believe there's anything of substance left in the veteran righty. The A's have not been good lately, and have dropped four in a row heading into this series finale. But I really like what I'm seeing from Trevor Cahill. He came up short in his rookie campaign as his curve just wouldn't work, reducing him to basically a two-pitch starter. Now he's commanding all three of his best pitches and his status as a high-level prospect has gone back up. Cahill is the best starter on this staff right now and I like his chances of helping the A's salvage the finale of the series. Take the available dog odds with Oakland.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matchup: L.A. Angels at Chi. Cubs
Time: 2:20 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) SAUNDERS, J vs. (R) ZAMBRANO, C
Play: L.A. Angels (ML +122)
Joe Saunders has been a money machine on the road for the Angels again this year. He's 4-1 in away games with a stellar 2.45 ERA, and it's not a fluke. Saunders is now an amazing 29-11 career in road games. The Halos lefty is also a day game stud racking up a lifetime 15-6 ledger under the sun. I'm basically on Saunders automatically as a road dog, so this one is house money for me. So is going against Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano. I'll admit that he's getting closer to what the Cubs are hoping to see from the Z-Man, but until he breaks through and wins something, taking any plus price against him is something I will continue to do. The Angels fit as a road dog trying for the sweep as well, so loots of good variables to support this selection. Take the price with LAA.
Craig Trapp
LAA Angels vs. Chicago Cubs
Pick: LAA Angels
This should be even money at worse and its such a bonus to get this hot LAA as this big of underdog. LAA have won 5 in a row on the road and 16 of last 21 games overall. Today they turn to Saunders who has been great in interleague play in his career. 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last three road starts, even hotter 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA in nine career interleague outings. He takes on one of the most up and down pitchers ever Zambrano. Big Z has not had a win since returning to the lineup and even worse has walked 11 in 15 innings. If the pitching matchup was not enough then think about the hottest hitting team in the league the last month verse one of the worst. Enough said this one is another easy win as LAA finish off the sweep.
Rob Vinciletti
Athletics vs. Cardinals
Pick: Under 9
What we want to do is play the under for all home teams with a total of 8 or less off a home favored loss by 1 run, with 0 or 1 errors vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog win, if both teams scored 4 or less runs. Teams in these game only combine to score 4.4 rpg. The Cardinals have gone under 7 of 8 times when the total is 9 to 9.5 and have an excellent home bullpen era at 2.59. Oakland has gone under 16 of 23 times in day games and only average 3.3 rpg in Inter league games. In the pitching matchup. J.Suppan looks to build on an encouraging first start back with St. Louis. Oakland counters with righty T.Cahill. Cahill has gone under in 7 of 10 stats this season. Look for this one to go under.
Hollywood Sports
25* Rangers / Astros Under
We look for two strong efforts from these starting pitchers. Wilson has made a strong transition from the Rangers bullpen to starting rotation this season with his 5-3 record and 3.48 ERA. This day game on the road is a situation where Wilson does his best pitching. On the road this season, Wilson has a 3.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .196 opponent's batting average -- as opposed to his 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .225 opponent's batting average at home. And during day games this season, Wilson has a 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .208 opponent's batting average versus his 3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .219 opponent's batting average during night games. Wilson's deeper sabermetric statistics also paint a very good picture for this left-hander. His extremely low .082 ISO (ISOlated power, slugging pct minus BA) number indicates that he is not giving up many extra-base hits. We also take note that only .610 of the line-drives Wilson is allowing are falling for base hits -- as opposed to the current .728 LD BABIP (Line Drive Batting Average for Balls put Into Play) American League average. Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the hitter-versus-pitcher battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The fact that Wilson has a significantly lower LD BABIP then the AL average is strong evidence that he is legitimate. Wilson scattered two runs on just two hits in his last start in Florida against the Marlins -- and the Rangers have played 7 of the last 8 games Under the Total when Wilson was pitching after a Quality Start in his last outing. The Astros (26-43) are hitting only .240 against left-handers and they have played 6 straight Unders against lefties. Additionally, the Rangers (40-28) have played Under the Total in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.
The Astros' Paulino is 1-8 with a 4.50 ERA this season. Paulino's sabermetrics look good. His .110 ISO indicates he is not giving up many extra-base hits. Paulino has a groundball BABIP of .320 which is much higher than the .275 GB BABIP that the Astros have overall this season. This is good evidence that Paulino has actually been very unlucky regarding allowing those seeing-eye groundball base hits. His GB BABIP should regress down towards the Houston's mean over time. Paulino pitches much better at home: 3.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and a .213 opponent's batting average versus a 5.79 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .303 opponent's batting average on the road. Further, Paulino thrives in day games with his 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .204 opponent's batting average as compared to his 4.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .267 opponent's batting average at night this season. This is consistent with Paulino's '09 spit stats during the day given his strong 2.64 ERA and 1.24 WHIP during the day. And with Paulino on the hill with Houston as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range, 8 of those last 10 games have gone Under. Together, these team trends produce our specific 25-4 combined winning angle for this game.
Roz Juarbe
1st Half Total Game of the Year
Reds / Mariners Over
My eyes got really big when I saw this matchup on Sunday. A Cincinnati Reds team that is in the top 5 in just about every hitting category (Hits, Runs, Home Runs, RBIs) has just got held to one run on Friday and one run on Saturday to the Seattle Mariners. Ok, I'll give you Friday's game, that was against Cliff Lee who is having a great season. Saturday, well that one is a stretch. But Sunday, there is no way the Reds are held below six runs here. Likewise, I don't see the M's getting held down either.... therefore, I'm loving the OVER in this matchup. Ryan Rowland-Smith for the M's hasn't won a gamne yet in 11 starts (0-6) and has a lofty 6.63 ERA and sky high 1.78 WHIP. He's allowed as many walks as KO's (23) and opponents are hitting .332 against him this season. Now he faces one of the best hitting teams in baseball... Yikes!!! Aaron Harang isn't exactly been stellar either. He's 5-6 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He's coming off a terrible outing against the Dodgers where he allowed five earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Sit back, enjoy the show, this one is going OVER on Sunday.