Hot Shots
3* Red Sox/Dodgers Under
Jeff Benton
20 DIME PHILLIES -1½
10 DIME Rays-Marlins UNDER
Phillies -1½
Time for the real Roy Halladay to come back to the mound. Halladay got his butt whipped at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, giving up six runs on eight hits – including three cheap home runs – an 8-3 loss. He’s now dropped back-to-back games (including a 2-0 home loss to Florida) and Philadelphia is just 2-5 in his last seven starts (even though Halladay gave up two runs or fewer in five of those seven games).
The reason the wins have been few and far between for Halladay lately? Check out the run “support” he’s gotten in his last seven outings: 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 0 and 3. However, after a LONG offansive drought, the Phillies’ bats have finally woken up, as they scored 13 runs in their last two games at the Yankees on Wednesday and Thursday, then came home and pounded out a total of 19 runs against the Twins the last two days. Today, the Phils get to take their hacks against Carl Pavano, who’s lost his last three road starts by scores of 4-1, 11-2 and 3-0, giving up 13 runs (12 earned) in 19 innings (5.68 ERA).
Back to Halladay. He’s had just three subpar starts all season, giving up five runs in seven innings at San Francisco, six runs in 5 2/3 innings at Boston and then Tuesday’s outing against the Yankees. Well, he not only bounced back from his first two poor performances, he pitched complete-game gems (a three-hitter in a 10-0 home win over the Mets and the complete-game at Florida). If he stays true to form, the Twins are in deep trouble – especially when you consider what Halladay did against Minnesota when he was with the Blue Jays: 13 games, 11 starts, 8-1 record, 2.90 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .226 batting-average-against.
Talk about dominant!
Meanwhile, Pavano has faced the Phillies 20 times in his career, going 5-7 with a 4.86 ERA, and the Phillies are batting .283 against the veteran right-hander. Even better, he’s pitched twice at Citizens Bank Park and given up 11 runs and 19 hits (three home runs) in 11 innings, as Philadelphia hit nearly .400 in those two games.
Finally, while the Phillies haven’t won much lately, when they have, it’s been convinecing, as their last six victories have been by multiple runs. In fact, 18 of their last 23 wins have covered the run line.
Rays-Marlins UNDER
Can Vegas set this total low enough? I doubt it, not with these two pitchers on the mound.
Florida’s Josh Johnson is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and he has been unbelievable over his last seven starts, allowing a grand total of four runs (three earned) in 49 innings (0.74 ERA), giving up just 32 hits and 10 walks while striking out 42 in those 49 innings. Johnson has been ridoculous at home, too, going 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA in nine starts. In 61 home innings, Johnson has allowed 58 combined hits and walks – and nary a home run! – with 74 strikeouts.
Now check out the final scores of Johnson’s last four starts: 1-0, 3-2, 2-0 and 3-2.
Meanwhile, David Price’s numbers aren’t quite as sick as Johnson’s, but about 98 percent of the pitchers in the big leagues would trade their stats for those of the Tampa lefty. Price is 10-2 with a 2.31 ERA, including 6-1 with a 2.66 ERA in seven road games. Only once this year has Price given up more than three earned runs; he’s yielded two earned or fewer nine times; and he’s gone at least six innings in 10 of his 13 outings. Over his last three starts, Price is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA, and two of those wins came on the road.
Price’s only previous start against the Marlins came last year in Tampa Bay, and he surrendered just one run on two hits and five walks in 6 1/3 innings, rolling to a 5-2 victory. As for Johnson, he’s 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA in four career starts against the Rays, but never in those four outings was the big right-hander going as good as he is right now.
Throw in the fact that this is a day game after a night game in late June under the searing heat and humidity of South Beach – read: the hitters are going to be sapped – and I’ll be shocked if there are more than three runs scored in this game. Play it low
Ken Jones
Brewers at Rockies
Pick: Brewers +140
The Milwaukee Brewers call on their left hand hurler Randy Wolf who had a bounce back win in his last start versus a tough Angel lineup after getting rocked in his last two starts really showing his confidence. In the last start he just surrendered two runs on three hits in seven solid innings of work. Colorado’s Aaron Cook has allowed fifteen runs in his last twenty six frames. Play: Milwaukee
BIG AL
5* INTERLEAGUE BASEBALL GAME OF THE YEAR
Florida Marlins over the Tampa Bay Rays.
ANTHONY REDD
75 Dime Padres Under
Frank Patron
Florida Marlins +130
EXECUTIVE
250% St.Louis
2-Minute Warning
Phillies - 1.5
Joel Tyson
30 Dime Tampa Bay-Florida UNDER
Michael Cannon
25 Dime OAKLAND A's
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units TB Rays Under 7.5
4 Units Cleveland Indians
4 Units Cincinnati Reds
NSA
20* RED SOX -160
20* YANKEES-170
20* ANGELS+ 120
Al DeMarco
15 Dime Phillies -1.5
5 Dime Blue Jays
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Sunday Baseball 100* Play San Diego (-155) over Baltimore
Baltimore has lost 6 of the last 8 games and they have also lost 28 of the last 35 road games as an underdog of +100 or higher. Baltimore has lost 15 of the last 18 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have also lost 75 of the last 109 day games.
50* Play Philadelphia (-185) over Minnesota
Philadelphia has won 5 of the last 7 games and they have also won 30 of the last 42 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Roy Halladay is 8-1 vs. Minnesota over his career with an ERA of 2.73 and he has an ERA of 2.36 in all games this season.
50* Play Ivory Coast (.5 goals) over Brazil
MIKE LINEBACK
Phillies -1.5 +105
Twins/Phillies Over 8
Cardinals
SPORTS UNLIMITED
2* ST LOUIS
1* CHICAGO CUBS
Scott Spreitzer
KO - LA Angels