CRAIG DAVIS
30 DIME NY Yankees RL
Cal Sports
5* S Fran
Scott Spreitzer
4'* Texas Under
3* Minn
3* Phillie
3* Col
Scott Rickenbach
8* Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies perfect game from Roy Halladay made headlines yesterday. The key today will be another pitching match-up that favors the Phillies. No, we certainly don’t expect a perfect game from Jamie Moyer of the Phils but we do expect is another solid outing from the Phillies southpaw while Anibal Sanchez sees his history of struggles against the powerful Phillies lineup continue. Note that Moyer is making his first day game start in 2010. However, from 2005 to 2009 – the last five seasons – Moyer is an amazing 27-8 in day games! He’s also 13-5 with a 3.18 ERA in his career outings against the Marlins. Even though Moyer lost to the Marlins earlier this season, he did allow just six hits in six innings and he struck out seven in that start. Although his overall numbers haven’t been that impressive this season, Moyer is still holding hitters to a .243 batting average this season and that says a lot about just how deceptive the 47 year old southpaw still is on the mound! The Phillies are 31-18 this season as a road dog of up to +125 and that includes a perfect 3-0 this season! The Phillies are also 13-6 this season in games where the posted total is a 9.5 or a 9. Also, that includes a stellar 6-2 mark when on the road and the total is in the 9 to 9.5 range.
The Marlins have lost four straight games and things are unlikely to improve with Sanchez having to face a lineup that has given him a lot of trouble in his career. We realize the Phillies haven’t been hitting the ball well recently but the Marlins struggles at the plate have been evident in this series as well. Without a doubt, it’s the Phillies that have the much more dangerous lineup and note that Sanchez is just 2-5 with a 5.70 ERA in eight career starts against Philadelphia. Also, though the Marlins right-hander is off to a solid start to this season, he came into this season with a combined record of 6-13 the last two seasons. Also, Sanchez has not enjoyed pitching in day games in his career. Unlike Moyer’s amazing run the last five seasons in day games, note that Sanchez (whose career began in 2006) has gone 3-5 with a 4.95 ERA and a .291 BAA under the sun in his MLB career. One final note here is that the Phillies also have a big bullpen edge over the Marlins with a combined relievers ERA that is a full one run lower than that of Florida’s. Look for the Marlins to lose for the 8th time in their last 10 games as their slump continues while the Phillies get their sweep in Florida as they have put an end to their recent losing ways. Play Philadelphia on the money line as an *8* Regular Play selection.
8* Seattle Mariners
A ton of line value here with the underdog Mariners. The Angels just are not the same powerful lineup this season that they’ve been in recent seasons. Keep in mind, they lost Vladimir Guerrero before the season. Now, in yesterday’s game, Kendry Morales got the huge game winning grand slam in the bottom of the 10th but broke his leg in the celebration at home plate! Also, Torii Hunter suffered a bruised hand after being hit by a pitch from Felix Hernandez. Note that Morales and Hunter are two of just three Angels regulars that are hitting better than .256 this season! So, with Morales out and Hunter hurting and Guerrero long gone, the Angels lineup that Snell will be facing today is not near as imposing as those he’s faced in the past. While Snell’s overall numbers this season are not that impressive, he did produce a solid start against San Diego on Saturday the 22nd as he moved back into the rotation after a short stint in the bullpen. Note that, before yesterday’s win in extra innings, the Angels had gone just 5-6 in their last 11 games while the Mariners were 5-2 in their last 7 games before coming up short in yesterday’s game. Before struggling at the plate, against Jeff Weaver, yesterday, Seattle had averaged 9.4 hits per game in their last 9 games.
The Mariners, though yesterday was a struggle, have been on one of their best runs of the seasons and we expect them to resume their run against Joe Saunders of the Angels. Saunders has pitched better in his last three starts but he’s still an ugly 3-6 on the season. Also, in his most recent start the southpaw gave up four hits and five walks in his 6.1 innings and the damage easily could have been much worse than what it was. Also, the Mariners are getting a second look at him after having just seen him three weeks ago. Though he only allowed 1 earned run in that outing, Saunders was reached for three runs on five walks and five hits in 5.2 innings of work. Overall, Saunders has now walked 22 batters in his last 37.2 innings of work and the Mariners lineup has been producing much better recently than it was earlier this season. Seattle had scored 18 runs in their last 3 games before getting held in check by Weaver yesterday. The Mariners are 3-1 in their last 4 games against southpaw starters and the lone loss saw Seattle outhit their opponent but fall just short on the scoreboard. Look for the Mariners to resume their recent run against lefties as Saunders is simply over-rated and so too is an Angels lineup that is damaged goods at this point. By the way, while the Mariners bullpen ERA ranks 13th in the majors, the Angels rank 28th! Play Seattle on the money line as an *8* Regular Play selection.
10* Minnesota/Texas Over
We rode the over to victory in yesterday’s game between these teams and we’ll look to do the same today. Yes, yesterday’s game was somewhat quiet until the Twins broke through in the 7th inning. However, the big inning did not come as a complete surprise. Minnesota loves hitting in their new home park. The Twins are hitting .283 at home this season and they’ve averaged 5.2 runs per game there. They should have very little trouble with the offerings of Derek Holland tonight. Facing back to back southpaws (they faced CJ Wilson yesterday afternoon) will only help the Twins and, keep in mind, the lefthanded bats of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Denard Span have all hit southpaws extremely well so far this season. The rest of the hitters Holland faces will nearly all be stepping in on the right-hand side and the southpaw, while stellar against lefties this season, has been hit at a .284 clip by right-handed hitters in his young career. Keep in mind, Holland is just 2-6 on the road so far in his career. Also, he has a solid 3.86 ERA against the Twins in his two career starts against them but Minnesota has hit .316 against Holland! The Twins have averaged nearly 6 runs per game in their first 8 games of this 9 game homestand. Also, the Rangers are hitting .267 this season and have pounded out at least 9 hits in 9 of their last 12 games. Yes, we know their road numbers have not been good this season but look for that to improve against Scott Baker of the Twins.
Minnesota’s Baker has enjoyed some solid outings so far this season. However, he had been hit quite hard in 4 of his last 6 starts before coming up with a solid effort against the Yankees in a suspended game earlier this week. Also, Baker has an unimpressive 5.25 ERA in his six career starts against the Rangers. Texas will have a number of hitters in their lineup tonight that have plenty of experience with Baker. Also, of the few who have not had much success against him, note that the list includes some of the Rangers better hitters and Texas had scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games before what has happened in these last three games. However, after only producing 6 hits against the Royals (Luke Hochevar started) on Wednesday, the Rangers got 7 hits Friday (Kevin Slowey started for the Twins) and then 9 hits in yesterday’s game. Texas is starting to head back the right direction offensively and they will step into the batters box with plenty of confidence tonight since they’ve enjoyed quite a bit of success against Baker in his career. Baker is getting a little too much respect here. He’s got a 4.48 ERA this season and that means that, over the last five seasons, he’s only record one season with a better than 4.26 ERA. The point is that we’re getting to play an over 8.5 here, not lay any juice, and yet we’re fading a guy (Baker) who is not dominant and a guy (Holland) who is still young and unproven. On a mild night in the Minneapolis area, we won’t hesitate to step up the level on this one! Play OVER the total in Minnesota as a *10* Top Play selection.
Dwayne Bryant
Tigers -125
At first glance, the public will look at this game and see the following: The A's have won 4 straight (including the first two in this series), while the Tigers have lost 4 straight. Dallas Braden, the owner of a perfect game this season, owns a 3.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2010. Max Scherzer owns a 7.29 ERA and 1.67 WHIP on the season. So let's pound the A's today, right? As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast!"
I see this game a little differently. First, Dallas Braden has struggled on the road this season, sporting a 5.32 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in four road starts. The A's won just one of those games. Braden is also suffering from an ankle injury. The injury has been lingering since May 3rd and bothered him enough to force him to leave his last start after four innings. So he's definitely NOT 100% and there's no telling how much this injury will affect him today.
Several Tigers have had success against Braden in their careers. Amongst those with more than a handful of at-bats: Johnny Damon (2-for-7, .286 BA, 1 double), Gerald Laird (6-for-15, .400 BA, 2 doubles), Ryan Raburn (6-for-12, .500 BA, 2 doubles, 1 homer), and Magglio Ordonez (4-for-13, .308 BA, 1 double, 2 homers). A couple other Tigers with limited AB's against Braden have hit him well, including Ramon Santiago, who has a double and a triple in two at-bats against the lefty.
Max Scherzer has put up some awful numbers this season (some listed above), but he has a couple things going for him today. First, Scherzer has been called up from Triple-A Toledo to make his first start for the Tigers since May 14. Scherzer posted a 0.60 ERA while winning his two starts with Toledo. He should have regained some confidence and now he's bringing that confidence with him on the mound today against an A's lineup that has never faced him with the exception of Kevin Kouzmanoff (1-for-6). That's a nice edge for Scherzer and Detroit.
Bottom line: Braden is not 100% and several Tigers have hit him well. Scherzer's trip to Triple A was a success and should've given him the confidence to have success against a team that hasn't faced him. Oakland is 9-14 on the road while Detroit 14-8 at home. Look for Detroit to avoid the home sweep and get the W today. Take Detroit/Scherzer over Oakland/Braden.
Teddy Covers
AZ/SF Over 8.5
Power Play Wins
St. Louis Cardinals -114
MIKE LINEBACK
4* (POD) Astros / Reds Over 8.5
4* San Diego Padres -142
EXECUTIVE
250% Rockies
igz1 sports
4* Oakland +105
4* NY Mets +115
3* Cincinnati -1.5 -105
3* Florida -125
3* NY Yankees -1.5 -150
3* LA Angels -155
3* LA Dodgers/Colorado Under 9
BEN BURNS
10* Angels
10* Marlins
8* Yankees/Indians Under
KELSO
20 UNITS Boston Red Sox -1.5 -140
20 UNITS SD Padres -145
10 UNIT Parlay
15 UNITS Twins -140
10 UNITS Reds -1.5 +110
3 UNITS Marlins -125
3 UNITS LA Angels -155
Jason Johnson
Dodgers at Rockies
Pick: Rockies -107
Manny Ramirez takes a rest today which won't help a Dodgers lineup that has scored three runs or less in four of ther last six games. Consider that Colorado starter Jhoulys Chacin has already beaten the Dodgers once this season, an 8-0 Rockies win in LA, and you can see why I'm on the Rockies today. Chacin was sharp in that game striking out seven in 7 1/3 innings of work.
Clayton Kershaw has pitched well lately but he has an awful background at Coors Field where he's 2-2 with a 6.92 ERA in five starts. You can expect Colorado slugger Brad Hawpe to hit well today; he's 4-11 with two runs against Kershaw.
Big Al McMordie
BIG AL's 3-GAME PACKAGE; 3-1 Sat; 111-77 This Year
Our 3 selections include the Tigers, the Under in the Phillies/Marlins game, and the Over in the Yankees/Indians game.