Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday August 13,2009

Rob Vinciletti
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New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Under 8½
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The Mariners fit a nice under system that pertains to large home dogs coming off a home game taking on an opponent who is also off a home game.In the series here in Seattle these two teams have gone under 5 of 6 times over the past three years.Tonight the Yanks have their ace going in CC.Sabathia.In his only start here over the past 3 years he was solid going 8 innings without allowing a single run.This is Sabathias time of the year.While August is the dog days of summer for some.Sabathia relishes this month.Matter of fact he performs better in August then any other month over the past few years.He has come into 09 with a 1.82 August era.Tonight he takes on a Seattle squad that has trouble with Leftys.They are averaging 3.7 runs per game vs south paws this year and were stymied last night by Chicagos Buehrle.In general Seattle has struggled at home this year averaging under 4 rpg.Sabathia will be no help for them tonight.Seattle has historically been an under team when installed as such a large home dog.When Seattle is +175 to+200 they have gone under in 16 of 19 games.Thursdays are also an under number for Seattle as they have gone under 11 of 14 times this year.Seattle will have recently acquired Ian Snell making the start for them tonight.In his favor he will face a Yankee team that usually struggles vs a pitcher they have never faced.Not to mention they will have to travel in from New york after going extras with Toronto.This one looks like a low scoring game.

The Miller Group

7* MLB EARLY AFTERNOON HAMMER *52-36 RUN*

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox Aug 13 2009 1:35PM
PICK: Boston Red Sox
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Let's get this straight. The Tigers are 23-36 on the road and have lost the first three games of this series, while the Red Sox check in at 38-17 at Fenway Park and are still highly motivated after that weekend sweep at the hands of the Yankees, yet the Tigers are the ones favored this afternoon?

It just doesn't add up.

Perhaps even more interesting is the fact that the public isn't jumping all over the Red Sox. Boston has already gone 6-0 against the Tigers this season and that's not a trend we see turning around on Thursday.
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Yes, the Tigers have their ace going in Justin Verlander, but he has looked like anything but lately, allowing five earned runs in back-to-back starts. The Red Sox have tagged him for five earned runs in two of their previous three looks over the last three seasons. Also note that the Tigers are just 6-7 in his 13 road starts this season.

Red Sox starter Clay Bucholz hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire, but is coming off a fine outing against the Yankees, in which he allowed just six hits and two runs over six innings. This is a guy whose numbers have become skewed, as he's pitched only once at Fenway Park this season. You'll remember that he pitched a no-hitter here back in his second MLB start in 2007. He allowed one earned run or less in each of his first three starts at Fenway Park last season.
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The Tigers are still holding on to the A.L. Central division lead, but only by two games. We don't believe that this is a team that performs well under pressure, and on this day, we look for the Red Sox to complete the 4-game sweep. Take Boston (7*).

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Power Play Wins
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Philadelphia Phillies -130
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New England Patriots +3
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Redskins/Ravens Under 31.5
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Pittsburgh Steelers -3
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Dallas Cowboys +2

HalfBets

Phillies v. Chicago
7* Under 8

Premier Cappers

Twins and KC Over 9 –115 for 3 units

When we bet totals we have to look for good and bad spots for teams and I believe due to the pitching in this game we should have no problem for this game to go over 9 runs even though it is a day game. Meche will be taking the hill today for Kansas City and he has not pitched in just over a month now due to an injury so I am seeing him struggling with control in this game. The bad news for the Twins is that they have Pavano not starting against Detroit in this game who he had mowed over 2 straight games in a row. Pavano has been inconsistent at best this season looking great some games then other games he has gotten killed in which against KC this season he has already faced 3 times giving up 16 ER in 16.2 innings pitched. Meche has faced the Twins 2 time this season already as well giving up 7 runs in 12 innings pitched but I see the Twins taking advantage of his control problems that I see him having in this game today. The Royals are on a 7-1 run to the over in their last 8 games overall while the Twins are on a 8-2-1 run in their last 11 games overall to the Over.

igz1 sports

NFL
3* Philadelphia -3
3* Arizona vs Pittsburgh Under 33.5

MLB
3* Philadelphia -135 (Lee)

C-Stars Sports

1000 Units MILWAUKEE OVER San Diego

Mean Green Profit Machine

Cleveland Indians

Jack Jones

15* on Astros/Marlins OVER 10
I like the over with two of the hottest offenses in the National League playing against two starters with mediocre numbers. The Astros are putting up 6.7 runs per game and hitting .298 as a team over their last 7 games, while the Marlins are hitting .327 as a team and scoring 7.4 runs per game in their last 7. Astros starter, Mike Hampton has a 9.75 ERA and 2.12 WHIP over his last 3 starts, while Marlins starter, Sean West has also struggled, posting a 7.36 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in his last 3. In the first three games of this 4 game series, the combined scores have been 14, 17, and 20 runs. The final game of the series should be no different.

20* No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -135
Take the Phillies with Cliff Lee on the mound and the Cubs struggling. Lee if finally starting to rack up wins now that he's with a winning team. He's only started 2 games for the Phillies so far this season, but has won them both, giving up just one earned run in each game. If you go back over Lee's last 3 starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Looking at Ryan Dempster, the Cubs starter this afternoon, he is 6-5 on the season with a 4.04 ERA, including a 4.62 ERA when he pitches at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7, hitting only .267 as a team and scoring just 3.7 runs per game over that span. The Phillies are now 34-19 on the road this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game offensively. Jump on the Phillies as this line is only going to go up before game time.

Insider Sports Report

4 Star Philadelphia Phillies

Seabass

20* phillies.
50* texas/clev under.
50* kc/minn over.

Chris Jordan

300♦ N.Y. YANKEES RUN LINE (WITH Sabathia over Snell) - Keep riding the pinstripes, and lay the run line with apparent-ace C.C. Sabathia toeing the slab. He is in search of his 13th win of the season after turning in 7-2/3 outstanding innings against the Red Sox in his last start, in which he struck out a season-high nine while allowing just two hits. It was a game in which he proved his worth.And for as strong as he looked last night, I have to believe he is going to lead the team once again, despite the team traveling cross-country after finishing up with Toronto yesterday. And let’s not forget, the M’s went to extra innings against the White Sox last night, and could be just as tired as the Yanks.Sabathia was too dominating for Boston, retiring the first 13 batters he faced before allowing a two-out single to Jacoby Ellsbury in the sixth and is now 17-2 in the month of August since 2005 - the most wins in the bigs for that month over that span.He’ll get the run support against Ian Snell, as he couldn’t throw strikes in his last outing, against Tampa Bay, which chased him after just 1-1/3 innings after walking six batters. He showed no command of his fastball and admitted to being nervous and jittery in his first career appearance at Safeco Field. How nervous will he be in his first career start against the Yankees?

50♦ REDSKINS
50♦ RAIDERS -

50♦ PADRES (LIST Carrillo) - Let’s start the day with a solid matinee pup in the San Diego Padres. Basing this all on the fact that right-hander Cesar Carrillo will make his major league debut this afternoon in Milwaukee. The Padres' first-round pick in 2005, who stands a prototypical 6 feet 3 and 175 pounds, will be the 13th starting pitcher employed by the Padres this season. He replaces Chad Gaudin, who was traded to the Yankees.Now I know he has struggled since being promoted to Triple-A Portland, going 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in three starts, but he also opened this season with Double-A San Antonio and was 8-4 with a 4.24 ERA in 20 starts. The levels have been different, I know this, but there is no scouting report at the big-league level for the Brewers to go off of. And many lineups tend to step up for someone new in the rotation, while the opposing lineup tries to hard and comes in a little too overzealous in trying to get to a rookie.No need to worry though, I know where to go get my own scouting report. And the fact is as long as this kid is able to command his two- and four-seam fastball – which ranges low- to mid-90's – he’ll be able to call upon his above-average curveball, not to mention a changeup he’s worked on effectively. Love the price of this game, and will list Carrillo only.

50♦ ROCKIES RUN LINE (LIST Marquis and Maholm) - Your other matinee contest will feature a pitching matchup that I give the nod to Jason Marquis in. He’s been stuck on 12 wins for nearly a month now, and this is the right spot to get him his win. The lineup will make a mockery of Paul Maholm, providing Marquis a huge lead, and then the right-hander will activate that herky-jerky delivery that tends to induce ground-ball outs.
Marquis had been pitching with a blister problem as recently as July 19, when he picked up his 12th win, which is probably why in his three starts since then he's 0-2 with a 4.74 ERA. Word is out of Denver, he’s more than ready to notch No. 13.Meanwhile, Maholm is 0-2 in his last five starts after a no-decision in his last outing, one in which Maholm allowed four runs in seven innings. He’s now allowed at least four runs in each of his last four starts and continues to get hurt by the long ball, as he’s now given up two homers in a game twice in his last four starts. He strolls into this one with a 1-3 mark and a 4.50 ERA in five career starts against the Rockies. Lay the run line, as Maholm gets pounded and Marquis stifles the Bucs.

Matt Fargo’s

**7** NFLX THURSDAY INFO SIDE **BEST BET**
Oakland Raiders

Keith Fredrick
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CARDINALS vs. STEELERS
PICK: ARIZONA +3
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This is, of course, a Super Bowl rematch, and will be the sixth such opening week preseason rematch of this decade. Interestingly, of the previous five, four of them came after very competitive Super Bowls, and in those four cases the team that lost the Super Bowl is 3-1 SU in the first preseason game. Those teams are 1-1-2 ATS, but all were chalk, and of course the Cardinals are dogs here, so the 3-1 is the more meaningful number. That NFL mini-system aside, Cards have other things going for them as well, most notably an honest to goodness battle for the #2 QB job between Brian St Pierre and Matt Leinart. Both will play a lot, and both know they need to do well. On the other hand the Steelers QB rotation consists of Dennis Dixon and Mike Reilly after Big Ben and Charlie Batch, and much prefer Leinart and St Pierre. One more personnel note is that the Cards will have a decidedly Pittsburgh flair late in the game with Tyler Palko (QB) and Rowland-Smith (RB) playing back on their home stomping grounds. Finally a word about the coaches, and as such it is notable that Tomlin has "led" him team to a 2-0 record in preseason openers he really had no choice to win those two games, as Sean Payton came right and said prior to the 2007 opener that he did not care about winning, and last year Tomlin beat Andy Reid, one of the worst Week One coaches in the NFL, and even then the Eagles had a 19-9 FD edge. Just not convinced Tomlin cares, but Whisenhunt will - especially back in Pittsburgh - and the Cards did win both preseason road games last year. Take the points in this one.