Jeff Benton
20 DIME: PHILLIES (over Cubs) ... NOTE: List Cliff Lee as Philadelphia's starting pitcher. If Lee does not start, this play is VOID!
5 DIME: EAGLES (minus the points vs. Patriots)
5 DIME: RAIDERS (minus the points vs. Cowboys)
Phillies
The Chicago Cubs are on the verge of seeing their season officially go down the drain. Their top two pitchers (Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly) are on the shelf; one of their top sluggers (Aramis Ramirez) can’t stay on the field because of a shoulder injury; and their bullpen (which was shaky anyway) has been taxed beyond belief in recent days because the starters are struggling to go deep into games.
If that’s not bad enough, Chicago this week is hosting the defending champs who just happen to be the best road team in baseball. And for the cherry on top of THAT, the Cubs have to deal with Cliff Lee this afternoon. Since being traded to the Phillies, all Lee has done is bring a huge-ass grin to the face of Philadelphia’s front office. In two starts against the Giants (5-1 win) and Rockies (3-1 win) – two teams leading the N.L. Wild-Card standings – Lee gave up a single run in each contest, pitching 16 total innings, allowing 13 total baserunners while striking out 15.
Going back to his final starts with Cleveland, Lee is on a 5-0 roll with a microscopic 1.32 ERA. How good has the southpaw been since the All-Star break? During his 5-0 run, he has as many complete games (three) as walks allowed (three).
After last night’s 12-5 romp behind Pedro Martinez, the Phillies have now won four of five against the Cubs this season, and they’re 6-1 against Chicago since the end of last August, going 4-0 in Wrigley Field. They’re also on a 37-15 roll against teams from the N.L. Central. Then of course, there’s Philadelphia’s incredible success on the highway this year, as they’re now 34-19.
Meanwhile, the Cubs have now lost six of seven overall, and although starter Ryan Dempster has been decent this season, Chicago is just 7-13 in his 20 starts, losing seven of his last nine overall and seven of his last eight outings as an underdog. Considering Dempster hasn’t pitched as many as seven innings in seven straight starts, were almost certainly going to see the Cubs’ beleaguered bullpen for an extended period – yet ANOTHER advantage for Philadelphia!
Add it all up and all signs point to an easy Philadelphia victory as the champs break out the brooms at the Friendly Confines.
Eagles
I don’t know for sure if or how long Tom Brady is going to play tonight, and that’s because coach Bill “the dictator” Belichick never tips his hand, even in the preseason. I can surmise that Brady, no matter his desires, won’t be on the field for more than a couple of series, if that. There’s just no way Belichick is going to put his franchise player who missed all of last season with a knee injury at risk.
And while I’m sure Brady’s going to do his damndest to get his team in the end zone (and he probably will), when he leaves, there’s going to be more than three quarters of football left to play. And when he does depart, the Pats will be left with second-year pro Kevin O’Connell, Brian Hoyer (a rookie from Michigan State) and Raiders reject Andrew Walter, all going up a solid Eagles defense that is very strong and very experienced beyond its first string.
By comparison, the Eagles will have just two QBs playing tonight: starter Donovan McNabb, whom coach Andy Reid says is going to play till the midway point of the second quarter along with the rest of the first string (which is huge!); and A.J. Feeley, who has been around the NFL forever, all with the Eagles (meaning he knows the system). The reason Feeley will play so much tonight is because No. 2 QB Kevin Kolb suffered an injury this week and won’t play.
Now, the thought of Feeley going up against a Patriots defense isn’t all that appealing (even though, remember, Feeley was the one who almost ended New England’s perfect season in 2007). However, the thought of Feeley picking apart third- and fourth-string Patriots in the fourth quarter? I have NO problem with that! For that matter, I love the fact McNabb and the first-team Philly offense will get to go up against New England’s second-string D for half of the second quarter.
Finally, we now can conclude with virtual certainty that Belichick doesn’t give a hoot about the preseason anymore. The Pats went 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason last year, losing their opener at home to the Ravens and their Week 3 dress-rehearsal to these Eagles at home (27-17). The Pats haven’t had a winning August in five years; they’re 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six preseason roadies; and they’ve lost three straight preseason openers. Meanwhile, the Eagles have won and covered four of their last five exhibition home games.
Bottom line: I have no clue why this number dropped below 3 in some spots yesterday, but if it goes off at 2½, I’m going to be VERY happy. Whatever the number, lay it Philadelphia, which should dominate the second half of this game and win comfortably.
Raiders
We’ve got a ton of very strong, very lengthy trends that point in Oakland’s direction in this game, and I’ll get to all of them. But first, I want to point out the obvious: The Raiders have been absolutely horrific – by far the worst team in the league – since losing the Super Bowl following the 2002 season. So if any squad is desperate to cultivate a winning culture in the preseason, it’s the Raiders, particularly since they’re on their third coach (Tom Cable) since losing the Super Bowl. Thus I expect to be backing Oakland on a few occasions just because I believe Cable, unlike most of his coaching counterparts, will be playing to win this month.
And that brings me to those aforementioned trends, and it starts with Cowboys coach Wade Phillips. In his first two seasons in Big D, Phillips has won all four of his exhibition home games (covering in three of them), but he’s lost all four road games (both SU and ATS). Not only that, but the Cowboys weren’t even been competitive in those four road losses, losing by a total of 45 points, including three double-digit defeats.
On the other hand the Raiders have been very strong over the past three preseasons at home (5-1 SU and ATS) and as a favorite (4-1 ATS). They’ve also gotten out of the gate fast, winning and covering their last three in Week 1 of the preseason.
Granted, I’m still not a big fan of Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell and I really wish newly acquired veteran QB Jeff Garcia (who is injured) was going to play tonight, because I’d love to see him facing Dallas’ backup defenders for a couple of series. At the same time, though, I’m giddy about the fact that the Cowboys’ offense will be guided by two rookie quarterbacks for the entire second half (Stephen McGee and Rudy Carpenter). Can you say “pick 6”? Back the Raiders, who again, have much more to prove tonight than Dallas does.
Paul Leiner
250* Tigers -115
50* Brewers RL -1.5 +105
25* NFLX Raiders -2
25* NFLX Over 33 NE/Phi
25* MLB Rangers -120
Savannah Sports
Todays Selections
NFL Preseason
3 (***) Pittsburgh -3
Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
MLB Baseball
2 (**) Detroit +105
Robert Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (-140) over Chicago Cubs (2 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #906 Colorado (-1.5, -125) over Pittsburgh (3 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #917 N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -120) over Seattle (10 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #915 Detroit (+100) over Boston (1:30 p.m.)
Today's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 N.Y. Yankees at Seattle (10 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 10.0 Houston at Florida (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Kansas City at Minnesota (1 p.m.)
Tony Bruno Wins
20 Dimes Cubs
Scott Rickenbach
Minnesota / Kansas City Over
Lee Kostrowski
Minnesota / Kansas City Over
Mean Green Profit Machine
Cleveland Indians
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Minnesota Twins -1.5
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Boston Red Sox
BOB BALFE
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Redskins/Ravens Under 31.5
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Both teams are recognized for their defensive play before offense, The Redskins O-Line is banged up and will be playing in a very tough stadium against a team that prides themselves on tough home defense. Jason Campbell wont play to long nor will the rest of the Redskins offensive starters. I just do not see Washington putting up many points. The Ravens on offense will be without a few key receivers and tight ends. I do not see the Baltimore backup QB's doing much. The Ravens have lost Matt Stover and will be going with a guy who is unproven in that category. This will be a huge lost this year for Baltimore who is always a team that has settled for 3pts opposed getting the ball in the endzone for 7. With a new kicker they might chew up a lot of clock this year and come up with zero points. Take the Under.
IndianCowboy
4 Unit Play. Take Under 9 between the Twins vs. Royals
Gil Meche comes off a start where he was rocked in Fenway for six runs in less than four innings against the Redsox. He has been a solid bounce-back all year and he looks to bounce-back against the Twins on the road. Although he pitched well, the Twins defeated him 1-5 as he gave up 2 runs in 6 innings. I suspect he will have a similar solid outing as he looks to avenge that loss and he comes into the game on a bounce-back. Since coming over from the Indians, Pavan is looking to continue to pitch well for his new ballclub. I suspect he will have another solid effort based on that. Pavano was rocked by the Royals earlier this year for 9 runs and he is in a similar boat with Meche. They are both looking for revenge so to speak and as Meche comes off a bounce-back, Pavano looks to help his new ballclub in just his second start for them this year. The Under is 9-3-1 for Meche against the AL Central and the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Good luck, Indian Cowboy.
Teddy Covers
Colorado Rockies RL
Mike Neri
**SINGLE PLAY**
Philadelphia w/Lee -135 2:20 EST
Risk 1 Unit to make .74 Units
Bob Akmens
Red Sox
Doc's Sports
6 Unit Play.
#915 Take Detroit +105 over Boston
Lines at Pinnacle SportsBook
for the Last Two Hours
Tigers - $1.06
I Watch All Line Movements in MLB
Pinnacle SportsBook Over Night Lines
Tigers - $110
Adam Meyer
Texas -110 6 units
Boston under 9 4 units
Chicago Cubs +120 3 units
Florida Marlins over 10 3 units
Oakland Raiders -2 3 unit