Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday August 20,2009

BIG AL
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CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND
PICK: BENGALS +7
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At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points over New England. Bill Belichick's men certainly were impressive last week as New England went into the City of Brotherly Love and upset the Eagles 27-25. Unfortunately, Week 1 offensive success often doesn't transfer to the following game in the Preseason. And in the last 10 years, NFL teams off a 27-point (or better) performance in a Week 1 victory fall off dramatically in Week 2, and especially when installed as a favorite. Out of 24 teams, NONE were able to match their previous point total, and only five of the 24 covered the spread, including 1-10 ATS vs. a foe that scored 14 or less! With Cincy in off a 17-7 loss, grab the points with the Bengals.

Vegas Sports Experts
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10* Take Indianapolis (+3) over Philadelphia (NFL Power Play)
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• 1-6 SU & ATS in non-conference pre-season games the last 3 years
• 0-3 SU & ATS in pre-season as a road favorite the last 3 years
• 7-24 SU in pre-season road games

We Cover Spreads

1* Eagles-3
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We are aware of the hoopla surrounding the Eagles camp this week regarding the recent signing of Michael Vick. If their is any coach in the league that can keep his players from distractions from the media circus it is Andy Reid. He has dealt with his own off-the field personal family issues which were under the microscope of the media and it never took away from the quality of his job on the sidelines nor his teams play. Vicks' highly anticipated debut won't happen this week since he won't be traveling with the team.
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Andy Reid doesn't take these preseason games lightly. Reid said the starters will play the entire first half in this game. As three point favorites the Eagles couldn't secure a comeback against the Patriots as they fell 27-25 as David Akers missed a potential game winning field goal. We expect a full rebound from Philadelphia this time around. As a matter of fact since 2004 in preseason games Reids' teams are 7-1 ATS in their next game after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. Even in the regular season his teams are known to bounce back after a loss. Statistically Philly outplayed New England; they out gained the Pats 420 total yards to 257 total yards.They won the first down battle, ground game, passing game,and time of possession but failed to come out the victor. The offense was obviously clicking as the Quarterbacks hooked up with 16 different receivers in the game.
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The other big news out of Philly is running back Brian Westbrook is back this week practicing for the first time with the first team offense. He will miss this game but; rookie phenom LeSean McCoy of Pittsburgh is almost a mirror image of Westbrook. McCoy carried the ball 10 times for 55 yards and caught 2 passes out of the backfield in his debut with the Eagles. Reports are that the Philly coaches are saying that second round pick McCoy got the most out of training camp; more than any other player on the team and we can expect to see a lot of him Thursday evening.
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Reid was definitely playing to win against New England because after McNabb was done A.J. Feeley finished the game and he never put in 4th string rookie Adam DiMichele. Feeley had a huge game passing for 211 yards and a TD and Feeley most likely will be closing this game out for the Eagles too. With the recent signing of Vick we should see a valiant effort from Feeley who now finds himself competing for a spot on this roster.
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Colts first year coach Jim Caldwells team showed an all around poor performance in their 13-3 loss to the Vikings. The Vikings had 24 first downs to just 8 for the Colts. The Vikings owned the time of possession battle with a 38:59 to 21:01 edge. We don't know where to start with the Colts performance;the pass protection was atrocious as Peyton Manning was sacked three times on his first series. The line was dominated the whole game giving up six sacks total and never establishing the run. The offense actually never made it into the red zone in the opener. The first unit only played six plays but we should expect to see them out there a little longer this game to get some more reps but we doubt he'll leave Manning out there the whole first half as the Eagles are doing with their first team.
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Their defense has some issues as well. Their whole starting secondary missed the opening game and the defense has been plagued with injuries all of camp.We think the Colts mind frame is get out of the preseason as healthy as possible for their opener with Jacksonville in September rather then rack up some wins. Their are quite a few guys who are questionable but back up QB Jim Sorgi(hamstring), safety Bob Sanders (knee), cornerback Kelvin Hayden(hamstring), tight end Dallas Clark(concussion), defensive end Raheem Brock (fractured hand) and kicker Adam Vinatieri (hip, knee) are the notables among the guys who won't be suiting up Thursday.
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The Colts are still learning to trust and gain confidence in their new coach Jim Caldwell and it will take a couple more games to get in sync with each other. The Colts in the past few seasons are known not to put much emphasis in preseason games. The Colts are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 preseason home games. Since 2005 they've only won 3 of their 20 preseason games.

Power Play Wins
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Colorado Rockies -135

HalfBets
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Atlanta v. NY Mets
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8* Under 7.5

2* Eagles -3

Chris Jordans
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200♦ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE
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100♦ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -

Dominic Fazzini

15 Dime -- Angels (Lackey) -1 1/2 runs over INDIANS (Masterson)
5 Dime -- Eagles (minus the points over COLTS)

ANGELS

NOTE: List only Lackey as Los Angeles' starting pitcher
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John Lackey has reassumed his place as the ace of the surging Angels.

The veteran right-hander is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his last seven starts. He allowed one run and seven hits in seven innings Saturday in Los Angeles' 5-1 victory at Baltimore.

Lackey is 6-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 outings against Cleveland, but has won his last three starts vs. the Tribe. He gave up one run and three hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts on July 29 in a 9-3 win over the Indians.
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Cleveland starter Justin Masterson (3-4, 4.70) has been ineffective since coming over from Boston as part of the Victor Martinez trade. The right-hander is 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA in two starts with the Indians. He allowed seven runs (six earned) on six hits and five walks in 3 1/3 innings Friday in Cleveland's 11-0 loss at Minnesota.

Masterson made two starts against the Angels while with the Red Sox and went 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He has allowed five runs and nine hits in seven innings vs. Los Angeles in two appearances (one start) this year.
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The Angels have won their last five games, all on the road, and are 22-6 in their last 28 games away from Anaheim. They are also 24-8 overall since the All-Star break. With Lackey on top of his game and L.A.'s offense leading the majors in runs scored and batting average, this one could get ugly, especially since Masterson hasn't been able to pitch deep into games, which will mean lots of work for Cleveland's dreadful bullpen. Take the Angels on the run line.

EAGLES

Yes, I know Michael Vick is not going to be suiting up in today's game. But there's plenty of other reasons to like Philly in this one.
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One big reason is Indianapolis' quarterback situation. While Peyton Manning and the Colts' first-team offense is expected to play about 20 snaps, there is a significant dropoff after that. Backup QB Jim Sorgi is still injured, so rookies Curtis Painter and Chris Crane will get the majority of playing time tonight.

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb and Philadelphia's first-team offense is expected to play the entire first half. After that the offense will be in the capable hands of veteran backup A.J. Feeley, who was 18 of 24 for 211 yards and a touchdown pass in Philly's 27-25 loss to New England in the teams' preseason opener.
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While the Eagles are just 4-6 against the spread and 2-8 straight-up in exhibition road games the last five years, Indy is even worse during the preseason. The Colts are 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS in preseason games since 2005, and have lost eight of nine home games SU and ATS.
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I don't see Indy generating much offense after Manning & Co. come out of today's game. Take the Eagles to cover as a road favorite.

Tony Weston

30 Dime Patriots

PATRIOTS - If you’re a New England Patriots fan, or you just like to get down on the Pats, you absolutely loved what you saw from Tom Brady last week.

The guy played longer than most people figured, he hit 10 of 15 passes and, most importantly, when he threw his one interception (he also threw two touchdowns) he got pretty pissed off. That actually bodes well for everyone with an interest in the Pats because if Brady gets pissed off in the preseason that means he’s actually trying and is actually competing, unlike the more than 100 guys out there who are just going through the motions.

So, tonight, in his first home game since destroying his knee, he’ll have a little something for the Bengals as he leads New England to an easy victory as about a 7-point favorite.

Last week against the Eagles the Patriots were catching 3 points and ended getting the outright win, beating Philadelphia 27-25 in Philly.

Almost surprisingly, it was the Pats’ first preseason win and cover since 2007. On the other side, the Bengals come into this game just 3-6 SU and only 4-5 ATS their last 9 preseason games, including last week’s 17-7 loss at New Orleans as a 3-point underdog.

Also keep in mind that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is hobbling around, nursing what is being called a “mildly sprained ankle.” Reports out of Cincinnati indicate Palmer will not play tonight, which means backups J.T. O’Sullivan and Carson’s younger brother, Jordan Palmer, will get extra reps.

Yeah, that doesn’t really strike fear in my heart either.

Lay the points and take the Patriots at home in this one.

Wunderdog
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Game: Seattle at Detroit
2 units Detroit -165 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.2)
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The Seattle Mariners hung in the wildcard race for quite awhile, but are slipping fast. This team that lost over 100 games last season is vastly improved, but now face the rest of the season without ace Eric Bedard, leaving a gaping hole in the rotation. The Mariners are just 11-14 in their last 25 games, and four of them were won by Felix Hernandez. Ryan Roland-Smith has done a very good job coming back off an injury, but he is facing a team that eats up lefthanders at 89-57 the last four years, and is also winning two of every three at home, and an even better 24-9 in their last 33. The Tigers have not lost more than one in a row at home in their last 16 played in Detroit, while the Mariners are now just 17-37 in their last 54 as a road dog. I'll go with the Tigers in this one.

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Game: Seattle at Detroit
2 units Detroit -1.5 runs +130 (runline) (risk 2 to win 2.6)
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The Tigers are winning their way to the AL Central title at home, as they are 24-9 here over their last 33. They have an above .500 record playing to a would be -1.5 runline in those 33 games, making the + odds on the runline spill value on the Tigers. When you consider that the Mariners, in their last 11 road losses, that 10 of them have been by two runs or more it just adds to the value here. I'll go with the Tigers on the runline here.

Early Game More Later

Rocco Spacamuro

100* Colts +3

TONY BRUNO WINS

10x HOUSTON ASTROS

Kiki Sports

3* SF Giants GOY

Vegas Informer
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4 Unit Play. Take LA Dodgers –125 over Chicago Cubs
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The West Coast hasn't been very kind to the Chicago Cubs and it seems like the Cubs always struggle against NL West teams (especially in the playoffs). Chicago is 8-20 in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Cubs.

INDIAN COWBOY
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4 Unit Play. Take the Texas Rangers -1.5 (-105) over the Minnesota Twins
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I'm not a huge fan of the run-line but given that the Rangers come off back to back losses to the Twins and with Holland on the mound for them I expect them to do well. Bear in mind the Rangers were up 4-1 yesterday prior to Millwood giving up four runs before his exit and ended up losing 4-5. This team is in the playoff hunt and certainly cannot afford to drop 3 of 4 games to the Twins at home. I look for them to bounce-back today behind Holland who has pitched very well of late including a complete game shutout of the Angels on the road and defeating Boston by going 6 innings and yielding just 2 runs. The Rangers are 10-2 in their last 12 home games and the Twins are 0-4 vs. a left hander of late. The Rangers have quite a bit of frustration of late and they will look to take it out on Swarzak who has given up 16 runs in his last 8 innings.