KELO STURGEON
10 Units Eagles (-3) over Colts
8:00 PM -- Lucas Oil Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) -3 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-1) Prediction: Eagles by 10-13 Starting Time: 8:00 TV: FOX Comments: This is the ultimate situation play in the NFL pre-season. For openers, Philadelphia coach Andy Reid has said he will play his starting units for the entire first half and that should spell big trouble for an Indianapolis team that has so many new players at so many positions they hardly know one another’s names. The Colts have new receivers, two new offensive linemen, other offensive linemen playing new positions and a new coach. There was a reason starting quarterback Peyton Manning was sacked three times on the six downs he played last week in a 13-3 loss to Minnesota last week. Manning will play a bit more tonight but the Colts will again be without the services of his long-time back up Jim Sorgi who is out another week with an injury. This means once Manning leaves the game Indianapolis will be primarily in the hands of rookie Curtis Painter, fresh out of Purdue, and another rookie or two. This is just one giant bad spot for Indianapolis who will work more to establish chemistry than to win.
Partly cloudy with an 80-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
5 Units Rockies {J.Hammel} (-135) over Nationals {G.Mock}
7:05 PM -- Nationals Park
Colorado Rockies (67-53) -145 over WASHINGTON NATIONALS (43-77) Pitching for Colorado: RH Jason Hammel (7-7, 4.73) Pitching for Washington: RH Garrett Mock (2-4, 5.27) Rockies Trend Profile: Last 10: 7-3, Streak: Won 3, Road Record: 35-30, Against RHP: 47-35. Nationals Trend Profile: Last 10: 5-5, Streak: Lost 2, Home Record: 26-35, Against RHP: 34-59. Starting Time: 7:05 TV: Fox Sports Rocky Mountains, Mid-Atlantic Sports Network2 Comments: The Nationals may have a slight pitching edge ( Mock has an E.R.A. of 1.50 in his last two starts while Hammel is 2-3 with an E.R.A. of 6.65 in his last five starts) in this one but the bottom line says the Rockies are 8-0 against them this season and are hitting the cover off the baseball. My money says Colorado batting trumps Washington pitching in this one.
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.
Indian Cowboy WNBA
4 Unit Play. Take Over 166 between the San Antonio Silver Stars @ Atlanta Dream (Thursday @ 7:30pm est). There has been a sharp spike in the total since its opening. You should be able to find a few 165.5's as well so keep an eye out for that. The Silver Stars are quite good at winning games ouright on the road as evdient by their SU wins at Minnesota and at LA. Given that these two teams have not met each other this year, this game will likely be an up and down game which the Silver Stars don't mind playing on the road. After all, the game in Phoenix totaled 178 on the road and the game in Minnesota totaled 176 on the road - two teams that run the same pace for the most part as the Dream. Atlanta has been playing very well as they have covered their last 8 of 10 and won their last 7 of 10 straight up. The Dream are 4-1 to the Over against the Western Conference of late and San Antonio is 6-1 to the Over against the Eastern Conference. I have this game at 172 today so let's roll with the over.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
50* Play Philadelphia (-180) over Arizona
Arizona has lost 4 consecutive games and they have also lost 13 of the last 15 road games as an underdog of +175 to +200. Doug Davis has lost 7 of the last 8 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he has also lost 21 of the last 27 road games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Philadelphia has won 7 of the last 8 games.
Anthony Redd
10 Dime Patriots
Damon Roberts
10,000 DIME - New York Mets w/Santana over Atlanta
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1000 DIME - Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 over New England
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1000 DIME - Philadelphia -3 over Indianapolis
Eddie Roman
$15,000 NFL Preseason Vegas' Worst Nightmare Lock
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Philadelphia Eagles -3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Jack Burnet
5000 DIME PRESEASON TWO TEAMER
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NEW ENGLAND -6.5 over Cincinnati
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PHILADELPHIA -3.5 over Indianapolis
Bobby Esposito
1000 Dime - New England Patriots -6.5 over Cincinnati
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1000 Dime - Florida Marlins w/Johnson -120 over Houston
Rob Rosenhaus
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2009 Preseason GOY
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Cincinnati +6.5 over New England
Unlocked Sports
We were 1-1 yesterday with a profit of 1.88 units. That makes 6-4 since Friday with a profit of 9.65 units. We have 2 plays today.
1) Florida Marlins vs Houston Astros
Pick: Florida (4 units)
The Marlins are 4 games behind the Rockies in the race for the NL Wildcard. This is a game they absolutely cannot afford to lose. This one is definitely going to be an elite pitching affair featuring Josh Johnson (12-2, 2.85) and Wandy Rodriguez (11-7, 3.05). The Marlins have the advantage in this pitching matchup because Johnson appears to be on top of his game going 2-0 in his last 2 starts allowing only 5 hits and 2 earned runs and striking out 17, against the Phillies and the Rockies, two of the hottest teams in baseball. The Marlins are an impressive 22-4 in Johnson’s last 26 starts following a Quality appearance. Rodriguez on the other hand has struggled as of late with an ERA of 6.60 in his last 3 starts. The Marlins are hot going 8-3 in their last overall. The Astros have not won back to back games in the same series since July 21.
Lay 4 units on the Marlins.
2) Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Texas -1.5 (3 units)
The combination of yesterday’s loss and Boston’s win puts the Rangers 1 game behind the Red Sox in the AL wildcard race. That means that Texas must absolutely win the series closer at home tonight versus Minnesota. After winning the first game of this 4 game series, the Rangers have dropped the last two. Fortunately for them the Twins have not won 3 consecutive games on the road versus the same opponent this season. Additionally, the Rangers have a substantial pitching advantage. Derek Holland (6-7, 4.88) faces Anthony Swarzak (3-6, 5.87). Swarzak has pitched a total of 8 innings in his last 3 starts where he surrendered 25 hits and 16 runs. Playing the runline is a wise investment since the Rangers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home wins as a favorite.
Lay 3 units on Texas runline.
KELSO STURGEON's HIGHROLLER MLB PICK for TODAY
Highrollers Baseball
Thursday, August 20, 2009
15 UnitsMarlins {J.Johnson} (-120) over Astros {W.Rodriguez}
Florida Marlins (64-56) -115 over HOUSTON ASTROS (58-62) Pitching for Florida: RH Josh Johnson (12-2, 2.85) Pitching for Houston: LH Wandy Rodriguez (11-7, 3.05) Marlins Trend Profile: Last 10: 7-3, Streak: Lost 1, Road Record: 31-30, Against LHP: 25-16. Astros Trend Profile: Last 10: 4-6, Streak: Won 1, Home Record: 32-29, Against RHP: 46-47. Starting Time: 8:05 TV: Fox Sports Florida, Fox Sports Houston Comments: The numbers say this will be a real pitchers’ duel but the hidden figures say Florida starter Josh Johnson has all the edges. Johnson comes into this game off an outstanding performance in a 6-5 win over Colorado. In that game he had a no-hitter going for six innings, struck out 11 before going to the showers after 7 ½ innings and picked up his fifth straight win. This means Johnson is 19-3 since coming back from elbow surgery in 2008. The figures say he is yet to pitch his best game. As for Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez, this left-hander has had an outstanding season and I have certainly won plenty of money with him for this, but he has started on the downside of his form and is quite vulnerable tonight. After pitching lights out the entire season, in his last start Rodriguez gave up 10 earned runs in four innings as the Astros lost to Milwaukee, 11-2. Trees do not grow to the sky and Rodriguez figures to be in his down cycle for one or two more games before heading up again.
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to left field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 90.
Wunderdog
Game: Cincinnati at New England
4 units Cincinnati +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
It is rare to see an NFL preseason pointspread in this range except for week three, when you see starters getting a lot of time on the field. It certainly makes you look hard at the abundance of points. History shows it is a good idea to take the points when the situation arises. Since 1995 when a team is getting six or more points in an NFLX game, they have delivered the money on 59.1% of the occasions for their backers, covering 122 occurrences, with an overall record of 72-50 ATS. Those numbers get even larger when you look at the AFC. When an AFC team has been afforded the luxury of six or more points, the win rate increases to an astounding 68%! That number rises even further to 71.4% when the line reaches a full seven points or more! I'm going with the Bengals here as this number is simply too high.
Game: Philadelphia at Indianapolis
3 units Indianapolis +3.5 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
3 units Game Total UNDER 36.5 -110
Eagles Coach Andy Reid has shown disdain for these games and has never taken winning them seriously. Reid has a bad record int he preseason with a combined 15-26 mark in these games as coach of the Eagles and just 7-13 ATS as a favorite. Jim Caldwell lost his opener, and hopefully he is anxious to get a win under his belt at home tonight. Just like Monday Night Football was in its first 15 years or so, the NFL preseason has been characterized by dominating home underdogs as they have turned the points at home into 61% winners over the last decade. This is a excellent spot for Indy at home getting points, under a first year coach playing against a coach that has always puts out good teams - just not in the preseason. Indy gets the call here. I also like this game to go UNDER the total. Andy Reid over the past three years has seen his teams score an average of 13.3 points per game on the road during the preseason. That average if attained, would mean the Colts would have to reach 24 points, something they have done just three times at home in the last six years of preseason play. I also like the UNDER here.
C-Stars Sports
1000 Units ST Louis over San Diego
Doc's Sports
3-Unit Play
Take # 958 New York Mets-125 over Atlanta Braves (7:10p.m.)
Charlie
Bengals +6', Indy +3 & Bengals @ Patriots Under 36 (500* 3 team rd robin).
St. Louis -155 (30*)
Florida -130 (20*)
Mets -115 (20*)
Angels -150 (10*)
Colorado -135 (10*) free play
Savannah Sports
3* Indianapolis Under 36.5
Eric Degarde
3* Atlanta +110
3* Florida -126
HalfBets
Atlanta v. NY Mets
8* Under 7.5
2* Eagles -3
2* Pats -3 1H
BEN BURNS
*7 Annihilator New York Mets
C-Stars Sports
1000 Units ST Louis over San Diego