Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday August 27,2009

Sam Clayton

20 DIME - ROCKIES
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Big bounce back spot for Colorado as they look to win the series rubber match and draw even closer to the Dodgers in the NL West standings. Los Angeles has seen their once impressive division lead shrink to three games and they've fallen into a slight rut as of late. Meanwhile, the Rockies haven't skipped a beat and they keep on winning, having notched a 'W' in 52 of their last 75 games. Yes, the offense looked dead last night against Randy Wolf, but it's no secret that this group doesn't stay down for long. Thanks to excessive research, I found out that since Jim Tracy took over, Colorado is 5-2 in games following a 0 or 1 run output, and in the five wins, they've averaged 6 runs per game. That sounds like a mouthful and I usually hate statistics like that, but the proof is in the pudding. You might be able to contain Colorado's bats one game, but it rarely happens twice in a row.
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The biggest reason for my selection today though is the pitching matchup. Los Angeles, desperate for a fifth starter trots out Vicente Padilla, who hasn't pitched since August 5 with the Rangers before being cut. Padilla is an average pitcher, sure, but he was trimmed from the roster because he wasn't getting the job and he's a nutcase (irrelevant but true). Since the All-Star break, the right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and he's allowed 5 runs or more in three of his last five starts. More importantly though, he has been absolutely lit up against left-handed hitters (.319 BA vs LHB) and luckily for Colorado, their lefties have been tearing it up in the month of August. You have to believe that Jim Tracy will adjust and play Carlos Gonzalez (.381 BA in Aug.) and/or Seth Smith (.318) to go along with regulars Todd Helton (.310) and Brad Hawpe (.269). Even new centerfielder Eric Young is hitting .375 with three hits in eight at-bats. Parlay those numbers with the band box that is Coors Field and you've got a great chance that Padilla could be chased very quickly.
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Jorge de la Rosa gets the call for Colorado and he's been on an absolute tear the past two months. The southpaw is 6-1 with a 3.80 ERA in the second half and he's 3-0 with a 3.26 ERA his last three outings. Jorge has allowed three runs or less in 9 of his last 11 starts and I like the way he matches up against the Dodgers lineup. Being he's a lefty, Furcal and Hudson flip around to the right side (where they are less threatening). His blazing fastball and sharp breaking ball have been neutralizing left-handed hitters all year, which doesn't bode well for Ethier and Loney. And most importantly, the Dodgers' No. 3 and 4 hitters -- Either and Ramirez -- are hitting .195 and .244 respectively against southpaws this season. Whew. I hope your brain hasn't exploded with all these intangibles.
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Colorado is 8-2 their last 10 and they've won 9 of 13 at Coors Field. I'm very confident that they use home field advantage to the fullest and knock off the Dodgers, losers of 6 of their last 11 games. I'm rolling with the hotter bats and the much hotter pitcher, not to mention fading the swine flu (chuckle). Play the Rockies.

Brandon Lang

5 DIMER - CLEVELAND INDIANS - They were good to me yesterday, and I will gladly ride them again today behind Laffey.
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Now I used Laffey 2 Sunday's ago as a free pick winner and he delivered a nice underdog win at Minnesota. His next start out I rode the UNDER between he and Fister and he delivered for me again 4-3.

Now I come back with him on the road at Baltimore and as a added incentive, he is from the Maryland area so pitching for family and friends should be an added bonus.

Bottom line is Laffey has just been solid his last 10 starts allowing more than 3 earned runs just twice, and has won 2 of his last 3 on the road over the aforementioned Twins and Mariners.
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Hernandez has been struggling a bit giving up 14 earned his last 15 1/3 innings and he has gone 1-4 in the process.

We all know one of the worst teams in all of baseball the 2nd half of the season is the Baltimore Orioles while the Indians continue to play well and win, as evidenced by their 24-14 mark the last month.
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I will go to the well one more time with Laffey tonight at a very good value price.

I'm riding the Indians.

5 DIMER - CHICAGO WHITE SOX - Living on borrowed time.

That is all I can say about rookie Tawaza of the Red Sox. He shut out the Yankees for 6 innings his last start but it wasn't so much him as it was the Yankees not being able to get the big hit with men in scoring position.
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How does 0-8 suit you for the pinstripers in that game?

In fact, it has been a common theme with this kid as major league hitters are 2 for 22 with men in scoring position against him. So the question is how do you break through? Glad you asked.

You do it with veteran hitters, a veteran lineup trying to avert a 4-game road sweep as the White Sox are trying to do tonight.
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Danks is just the kind of guy to get them there and also breakthrough against Boston who has beaten him 3 in a row. He comes in pitching very well giving up 4 earned over his last 21 2/3 innings.

Folks, this is a big game for Chicago as they are 4 1/2 games back of the Tigers in the Central and off a tough loss last night, I look for the White sox to rebound with Danks and get to this rookie early and often.

Chicago is the play.

5 DIMER - ST. LOUIS-CINCINNATI UNDER - I just don't see these two teams getting over the total tonight.
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You have the # 1 defenses playing well into the 3rd quarter and both starting QB's sitting on the bench with injuries. So it's up to guys like Kyle Boller, J.T. O'Sullivan, Brock Berlin and Carson Palmer's younger brother Jordan.

I was so impressed with the Bengals defense at New England last week holding the Patriots to just a touchdown and head coach Lewis is preaching defense like never before.

At home in this preseason game I look for him to unleash as impressive a defense for the home crowd as they have seen in quite sometime. Defense wins championships and the Bengals have a pretty good defense as you will see again tonight.
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Rams new head coach Spagnola is all about the defense and tonight is a good matchup for his defense and a great opportunity for him to find out just where they are at.

With the quarterbacks in this game less than average and both defenses ready to get after it, I am rolling with the Under in a smash mouth defensive battle.
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Ride the Under.

FREE SELECTION - SEATTLE MARINERS

Doc's Sports

3-Unit Play Take Seattle Mariners -145 over Kansas City Royals

Hot Shot Sports

4* Cleveland

Dave Malinsky

4* NY YANKEES Run Line over TEXAS

Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Texas pitching staff so far this week the steady Kevin Millwood got racked for five runs in 5.2 innings, the excellent current form of Derek Holland got turned around into six runs in six innings last night, and in the only appearance from first-rate closer Frank Francisco he was tagged for two runs in a single inning. Overall the Yankees have scored 18 runs, including drawing 11 walks and hitting four home runs. So what happens now that the Rangers have to reach back to the bottom of their rotation We see a long afternoon coming, and with the markets actually helping us with this one in the early trading, New York will be available in a pick em range with the Run Line as the method.

Some of that move is understandable, based on the 4-2/3.95 that Dustin Nippert shows since being called up in July, but that is not who he is. In 141.2 innings prior to this season he had worked to an uninspiring 6.42 count, and it just becomes a matter of time before the current numbers move towards that level ? a guy that lacks good control, and gets too many of his outs in the air, is going to find it difficult to deal with this class of offense on the road. And having averaged just 5.1 innings per start, it will bring the inconsistent Texas middle relief corps firmly into play.

We could also say that some of the early market trading was against A. J. Burnett, since the last time the public saw him he was being belted around by the Red Sox. But there was no cause for alarm there.Burnett has been crushed on both outings at Fenway this season, but following the first he responded to lead the Bronx Bombers to a win over the Angels, and he has bounced back well all season. Burnett has had five starts in which he has allowed five runs or more, and after the first four followed up with a 1.98 over 27.1 frames, with the Yankees winning all four of those games, by a collective 28 runs.Note that he is one pitcher that is not bothered at all by the short porch in right field, since he throws hard enough to prevent the ball from being pulled, and in working to a 3.39 over 12 starts from this mound he has led the Yankees to a 10-2 mark in those games, out-scoring the opposition by 36 runs. The latter stages are also in good hands, with Mariano Rivera completely rested and no fatigue rating of significance anywhere.

3* L.A. ANGELS over OAKLAND

A game that we project into the -240 to -260 range has been set far short of that plateau here, a case of some stale numbers impacting market perceptions. It means that we have plenty of room to step in as we get behind the Ervin Santana resurgence, although at this range the investment rate must be altered because of the outlay.The gap between the Angels and A?s is every bit what the 20.5 games in the standings shows, with the Angel offense holding a commanding advantage of 152 runs, a major defensive edge (in a development we would have thought impossible early in the season, Oakland is now threatening Washington for the bottom of our charts), and Santana brings much more to the table than Trevor Cahill. But with Santana?s full-season ERA sitting at 6.13, and Cahill at 4.86, the last point is not in evidence, and that sets this up well for us.

Santana was brought back into the rotation before he was fully healthy, and as such had some truly ugly early moments. But we see him being back to full strength now, and the current 3-0/2.57 over this last three starts carries more weight with us than anything else he has done this season. The last time he worked from this mound was a sparkling complete-game shutout vs. Tampa Bay, and he followed that up with back-to-back road wins to build his confidence even higher.Now he faces an opponent that he has absolutely dominated, with a 10-1 lifetime mark that includes a 3-0/1.29 the past two seasons, and while the faces are changing a lot in the Oakland clubhouse these days, those that are still around to not bring much for this matchup ? holdovers Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, Kurt Suzuki and Jack Cust are a 13-96 lifetime against him (.135), with 22 strikeouts and the stunning total of just one rbi.

Meanwhile this will be the third go-round for Cahill against the Angels, and while his 4.66 ERA for the first two is not disastrous, take a closer look ? he allowed 20 base-runners in 9.2 innings but only got tagged with five earned runs, and he sported an unholy ratio of nine walks vs. only one strikeout in those games. He does not match up well at all here, and with the team behind him just getting swept in Seattle, despite the fact that Ichiro did not play, and the Mariners sent Ian Snell, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Lucas French to the mound, it tells us that the visitors bring an awfully weak package to this table.

Destroy The Book Sports

10* Fla/NYM Over 9
10* Philly -183
7* LA/Col Over 10
7* Cleveland +101
5* LAA RL
5* Hou/StL Under 7.5

Robert Ferringo

1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-1.5, -125) over Houston

1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-1.5, -120) over Pittsburgh

1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-1.5, -115) over San Diego

1-Unit Play. Take L.A. Angels (-1.5, -105) over Oakland

1-Unit Play. Take Florida (-1.5, -115) over N.Y. Mets

Today's Totals

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Chicago White Sox at Boston

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Houston at St. Louis

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Texas at N.Y. Yankees

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 L.A. Dodgers at Colorado

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 N.Y. Mets at Florida

Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd

NFL Football Premium Picks
NFL | Aug 27 '09 (7:00p)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles Jacksonville Jaguars
+7½-109 at 5dimes
4* Major Thursday Night NFLX *BEST BET* on Jags +7.5
Both of these teams are 0-2 in the preseason, but a win tonight will mean much more for a Jaguars team that is coming off a very disappointing year. That's why these 7.5 points are looking mighty tasty. Rarely do you see spreads this large in the preseason and it appears the odds makers are trying to trap the public here, playing on Michael Vick's debut. But I just can't see Vick putting together a game-changing performance yet. Tonight, will basically be about getting his feet wet. The Eagles have some key guys banged up so I don't expect them to push it as they know they have a whole lot more to play for this season. The Jags are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the preseason in their last 4 games following two or more consecutive defeats. The Jags are also a terrific 12-2 ATS in road games in the last two weeks of the preseason since 1993, with an average margin of victory of 6.8. Take the Jags.

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MLB Baseball Premium Picks
MLB | Aug 27 '09 (10:10p)
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners
-143 at 5dimes
3* Thursday Night MLB Crunch Time Bailout on Mariners -143
I'll back the Mariners at home against the ice cold Royals tonight. The Royals are just 5-16 in their last 21 meetings in Seattle and they face a Seattle club that is 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 23-9 in their last 32 games as a favorite period. The Royals are just 3-14 in their last 17 vs. the American League West, 3-9 in Davies' last 12 starts, and 3-11 in his last 14 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Royals have dropped their last 4 series openers and it's going to be tough for them to steal game 1 here after making the long trip out west against a good Mariners home club. Take the M's.

HalfBets

8* Dodgers +130 BEST BET

7* NYY -1.5 (-120)

2-TEAM PARLAY, $200 to pay $620

Pirates +1.5 +105
Indians +100

Tony Salinas

24* Jaguars (+7) over Eagles
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

25* Redsox (-120) over Whitesox
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.

24* Mariners (-150) over Royals
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

24* La Angels (-185) over Athletics
Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.

Bob Valentino

25 DIME - Dolphins-Bucs OVER

Ben Burns

Afternoon Annihilator

Colorado Rockies

Seabass

50* LA Dodgers
50* Cleveland Indians
30* Mets/Marlins Under 9
10* Houston Astros

Insider Sports Report

4* Philadelphia Phillies - 1 1/2 RL

3* Seattle Mariners

3* Jags/Eagles Over 37