Jason Johnson
Rangers at Mariners
Pick: Rangers
Eleven of Hernandez' 49 career losses have come against Texas, while no other opponent has beaten him more than seven times.
His two latest experiences against manager Ron Washington's club were among his worst. Hernandez gave up five runs over 4 1-3 innings in a 6-3 home loss May 1, then surrendered seven runs over six innings in a 7-1 road defeat June 8.
While Young is a .317 lifetime hitter versus Hernandez, Elvis Andrus and Josh Hamilton have combined to go 8 for 16 against him this year with three doubles and a homer.
Hernandez is 0-3 in four starts since the All-Star break while the Mariners (40-68) have only scored three runs for him.
Tommy Hunter is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA in five starts against Seattle and is 8-1 this season overall.
Kelso
25 Units LA Dodgers -155
15 Units Minnesota Twins +140
10 Units Arizona Diamondbacks -135
ATS Lock Club
4 Units SF Giants PK
4 Units Seattle Mariners -120
Accu Picks
3' * Texas
3* CWS
Executive
250% Texas
Dave Cokin
Solid Gold - Atlanta Braves
Baltimore Orioles
Dave Cokin
Matchup: L.A. Angels at Baltimore
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) HAREN, D vs. (R) ARRIETA, J
Play: Baltimore (ML +160)
I've used the Orioles each of the last two nights, and have been rewarded with a pair of wins. The new skipper angle simply says that I should keep playing the Birds till they lose, and now it's with the house's money, which is always a very good thing! This is a tough hurdle as road favorites trying to avoid getting swept in a three-game set have been solid plays this season. Plus, Dan Haren owns a big edge on the mound over struggling rookie Jake Arrieta. But I'm 2-0 with Buck Showalter at the helm, and I'm playing this angle until it stops paying off. So the Orioles as big home dogs are the choice again this evening.
----------------------------
Matchup: San Francisco at Atlanta
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LINCECUM T vs. (R) JURRJENS, J
Play: Atlanta (ML -101) SOLID GOLD PLAY
It's never a cinch to put the money on the line against Tim Lincecum. And the talented Giants ace is on a roll of late. Lincecum has won three in a row, and SF has won his last five starts. In fact, the Giants are 9-2 the last 11 times Lincecum has taken the mound. But the value here is clearly with the Braves. Atlanta continues to be amazing at home, and Jair Jurrjens has been spectacular at Turner, sporting a 3-0, 1.71 ledger. The idea of catching Atlanta at home with a strong starter and not having to lay anything is a must take for me, so the Braves are the call tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
10* Baltimore / Los Angeles Angels Over
These teams have combined for 25 runs on 46 hits in the first two games of this series. We see no reason to expect things to slow down tonight. In fact, the wind is expected to be blowing out to right at a good clip this evening and, on a muggy night in Baltimore, that will certainly help to insure that the ball continues to carry well at Camden Yards. The Orioles have recorded just four unders in their last 11 games. The Angels have given up at least 6 runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Though Dan Haren gets the start here and is certainly a well-respected pitcher, he has not been at his best this season. The Angels right-hander is 7-10 on the season and he’s particularly struggled on the road this season. Haren is 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a .292 BAA in his road starts this season. He does have strong career numbers against Baltimore, particularly at Camden Yards, but those were compiled years ago when he use to pitch in the American League. Again, right now, Haren is simply not the consistently dominating hurler that he once was. Before allowing just two earned runs on five hits in a complete game loss at Texas last week, Haren had given up 14 earned runs on 31 hits in his last 22.1 innings of work. In his last four starts Haren has given up six homers.
The good news for Haren tonight is that he should get plenty of run support in this one. The Angels lineup will be teeing off against a struggling Jake Arrieta. The young right-hander is 3-3 with a 5.47 ERA on the season. His last eight starts have seen him averaged just five innings per start and we all saw how poor the Orioles bullpen was last night. In other words, another short start for Arrieta tonight likely spells doom for a Baltimore pen that ranks among the weakest in the majors. In his last three starts Arrieta has walked 13 while striking out just 5 batters. He’s given up 15 earned runs in his last 13.2 innings of work. The Orioles are 6-1-1 to the over in Arrieta’s last 8 starts. Note that Haren’s 23 starts this season have resulted in 16 overs and just 7 unders. Also, Haren’s four starts against AL East opponents this season have resulted in a 4-0 mark to the over. In road games this season, Haren’s starts have gone 8-2 to the over. Both of these pitchers have truly been “over machines” this season and Arrieta just isn’t quite ready for the “big time” just yet. He’s particularly struggled at home this season (7.97 ERA) and we look for more of the same tonight. Play OVER the total in Baltimore as a *10* Top Play selection.
Adam Meyer
Colorado Rockies
The Duke's Sports
San Francisco Under (7) for 2 Units
Both of these starters do well in the respective roles they're cast in tonight: Lincecum is 6-1 vs the Braves with a 2.70 ERA. And he is 1-6 O/U in those outings. Jurrjens, on the other hand, is a rock solid home pitcher and sports a 4-21 mark as a starter in game 1 of a series, 2-7 O/U vs a team with a winning record, and 6-13 O/U in his last 19 starts overall. Jurrjens controls a respectable 2.61 ERA in 3 starts vs the Giants. And the bullpen is throwing well over the last few weeks (1.61 ERA) but the Braves' lineup has not been a big run producer over the last few weeks (3.3 rpg over last 10). "Under" the call.
Rocco Vincintore Guaranteed Selections
PREFERRED PLAYERS CLUB LATE NIGHT LAMBASTING
LA Dodgers w/Billingsley -158
Marc Lawrence
Philadelphia -125
When the Phillies send recently acquired Roy Oswalt to the mound against Chris Volstad and the Marlins in Florida tonight they will do so knowing Oswalt is 15-3 in his last 18 team starts during the month of August. On the flip side, Volstad is 0-4 in his career team starts at home against Philadelphia. with Volstad in off a phony 'inside-out' win in his last start (10 hits and walks in five innings of work in a 4-2 win at San Diego), look for the Fish to fall to 3-12 in Volstad's last 15 starts this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on Philadelphia.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* LA Angels -1.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Angels on the "run line":
Dan Haren gets the call for the visitors; Haren's pitched well enough in his last two outings to get a victory, but his team hasn't given him any run support; I believe that changes tonight.
He pitched a complete game on Saturday vs. Texas, but was on the wrong end of a 2-1 final.
Although he's just 7-10 on the year, Haren has a very respectable 4.42 ERA.
Despite yesterday's loss, keep in mind that the Angels are on a longterm 14-6 run against Baltimore; also 23-18 (+1.5 units) vs. teams with losing records.
In the other dugout: Jake Arrieta heads to the hill for the home side; Arrieta last just 4 1/3 innings on Friday; he allowed three runs off six hits vs. the Royals.
He's 0-1 with a dismal 8.56 ERA over his last three starts.
Baltimore is just 5-14 its last 19 overall; 4-9 its last 13 in front of the home town crowd; 25-53 (-18 units) in "night games"; 25-48 (-14 units) against right-handed starters.
Bottom line: Buck Showalter was the kick in the pants the Orioles needed, as they've won back to back games, but keep in mind that it's been over seven years since Baltimore has swept the Angels in a series; it's not happening tonight.
Haren is clearly the dominant pitcher here; when coupled with the fact that the Angels are desperately trying to claw back to .500, and the rest of the above factors, I'm expecting a lop-sided blowout;
Bob Valentino
Atlanta
Derek Mancini
Atlanta
OC DOOLEY
4* Seattle