Jeff Benton
30 DIME: YANKEES (Chamberlain) on the run line (-1 1/2 runs) over Red Sox (Smoltz)
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It’s time. It’s time for the New York Yankees to finally get the best of their hated rivals – and do so in blowout fashion!
As I’m sure you know by now, Boston has won all eight meetings in this rivalry this season and nine in a row dating to last September. However, it must be noted that seven of those nine wins came at Fenway Park (this is just the third meeting of the season at new Yankee Stadium). It also must be noted that these squads haven’t met in nearly two months, and in the interim, the Yankees have been playing some of the best baseball in the league.
In fact, after getting swept in Boston from June 9-11 (the final two losses being by a single runs), New York went on to lose six of its next 10 games. But since then, the Bronx Bombers are 27-10 overall, including 14-3 at home, and 10 of those 14 home victories were by multiple runs. One of the reasons for the Yankees’ turnaround? The pitching of Joba Chamberlain.
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Going back to June 7, Chamberlain has made 10 starts and New York has won eight of them, with the right-hander giving up three earned runs or fewer in nine of the 10 games. Most recently, Chamberlain has been virtually unhittable, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last three starts (two runs allowed on eight hits while striking out 19 in 21 2/3 innings. During this 10-start stretch, the Yankees are 6-1 behind Chamberlain at home (4-0 last four), and his home ERA is 3.72 over those seven games. That might not look that great, but trust me – with the way the ball flies out of new Yankee Stadium, that 3.72 ERA looks like 2.72.
Granted, Chamberlain hasn’t been all that sharp in his two starts against Boston this year, giving up six runs (five earned) on 15 hits in 11 innings. However, when he faced the Sox at home on May 5, 12 of the 17 outs he recorded were via strikeout – that should tell you how dominant his stuff can be! In fact, in four career starts against Boston, Chamberlain has notched 28 strikeouts (vs. 11 walks) in 24 innings, with the Yankees going 2-2.
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Of course, Chamberlain isn’t the only guy who will be on the mound tonight. His counterpart is the washed-up John Smoltz. The right-hander has been a complete mess since joining Boston’s rotation in June, going 2-4 with a 7.12 ERA in seven starts. In his last three outings, he allowed 17 runs (all earned) in 16 2/3 innings (9.18 ERA), and he served up six home runs in those three games. That last stat is very disturbing considering Smoltz is facing the team that’s hit the second most home runs this year in a ballpark that’s been a launching pad since the day it opened.
Bottom line: As far as I’m concerned, you can totally disregard Boston’s 9-0 run against the Yankees. Why? Because these are two completely different clubs than they were when they last met two months ago. Also, the Red Sox’s two best pitchers – Jon Lester and Josh Beckett – started five of Boston’s eight wins over New York this season. Finally, after losing in Tampa Bay the last two days, the Red Sox are now just 2-9 in their last 11 games against clubs near or above .500 (Tampa Bay, Texas, Toronto and Seattle). Put it another way, 12 of their last 13 wins have come against Baltimore, Kansas City and Oakland – the three last-place teams in the American League who are a combined 54 games under .500!
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Throw in the fact that the Yankees are on runs of 17-4 against right-handed starters, 7-1 against A.L. East foes and 14-3 in Chamberlain’s last 17 home starts, and I’m ALL OVER the Bombers tonight. Lay the 1½ runs and watch the Yanks pummel Smoltz and give their fans a blowout win of at least four runs!
RatedPicks
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Colorado Rockies +155 2 units
Fl. Marlins/Wash Natl's OVER 8.5 3 units
Det Tigers -130 3 units
*BP*Arizona D'backs -120 5 units
Arizona D'Backs RL -1.5 +135 3 units
Fantasy Sports Gametime
(1000* 3-Team NO LIMIT Day/Night Parlay)
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MLB Baseball 1000* Play Minnesota (-145) over Cleveland (MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY)
Cleveland has lost 52 of the last 86 day games and they have also lost 48 of the last 77 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland has lost 61 of the last 104 games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and they have also lost 4 of the last 7 games overall. Fausto Carmona is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 10.64 and he has an ERA of 5.24 vs. Minnesota over his career. Nick Blackburn is 4-0 vs. Cleveland over his career with an ERA of 1.30.
1000* Play Philadelphia (-165) over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY) Philadelphia has
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won 46 of the last 63 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and Cliff Lee has won 19 of the last 25 games when playing on a Thursday. Cliff Lee has won 8 of the last 9 games as a home favorite of -150 to -175 and he is also 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.44. Aaron Cook has lost 5 of the last 6 games as a road underdog of +150 or higher and he is also 1-4 vs. Philadelphia over his career with an ERA of 6.10.
1000* Play New York Yankees (-185) over Boston (MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY)
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Joba Chamberlain has won 8 of the last 9 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 9 of the last 11 home games. Joba Chamberlain has won 12 of the last 16 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is also 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.83. John Smoltz has lost 8 of the last 9 games when he did not walk a batter in the previous game and he is also 1-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 9.18.
WNBA HOOPS 50* Play Atlanta (+5) over San Antonio (WNBA Hoops Play)
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Atlanta has covered the spread in 9 consecutive games and they have also covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games when playing as an underdog. San Antonio has lost 9 of the last 10 games against the spread coming off a road win vs. a division opponent and they have also lost 22 of the last 32 games against the spread after playing two straight games as a road underdog.
Dominic Fazzini
10 Dime -- Braves (Lowe) over DODGERS (Wolf)
NOTE: List only Lowe as Atlanta's starting pitcher
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I won with this same pitching matchup Saturday, and I expect the same result today.
Former Dodger Derek Lowe (11-7, 4.21 ERA) has been throwing the ball as well as he has all season, going 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts. He allowed three runs and five hits in six innings in Saturday's 4-3 victory over Los Angeles.
The veteran sinkerballer has pitched well at Dodger Stadium in his career, going 33-23 with a 3.21 ERA in 66 starts, including 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA in 17 outings there last year.
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Dodgers starter Randy Wolf (5-6, 3.47) didn't pitch too badly Saturday at Atlanta, allowing four runs and nine hits with seven strikeouts in six innings to take the loss.
The left-hander hasn't fared too well against the Braves in his career, going 4-12 with a 5.32 ERA lifetime against them. He is 0-5 with a 7.31 ERA in his last 10 starts against them, including 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts.
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With Lowe's success lately and at Dodger Stadium, this one seems like too good a value to turn down. Take the Braves today.
Charlie
Florida @ Washington Under 8', Rockies @ Phillies Under 8' & Baltimore @ Detroit Under 9' ( 500* 3 team rd robin).
Detroit -140 (30*)
Minnesota -135 (20*)
Dodgers -135 (20*)
Arizona -135 (10*)
Texas -125 (10*) free play
Half Bets
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5* Angels +130
Premier Cappers
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Texas –113 for 3 units
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Texas is looking to avoid the 4 games sweep today in Oakland. The Pitching match up today is Hunter (3-2 2.63 ERA) vs. Cahill (6-10 5.01 ERA). Hunter is coming off his worst outing since being called up this season with him giving up 4 ER to Seattle but in his last 5 starts before that he had not given up more than 2 ER with under a 2 ERA. Cahill for Oakland has been struggling giving up 12 ER in his last 2 games with his team being 2-5 in his last 7 starts. If Texas expects to stay in the playoff hunt they are going to have to win games against Oakland this season and looking to avoid a 4 game sweep today I see their bats showing up today for a statement game.
Ben Burns
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Getaway Day TOTAL OF THE WEEK!
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Florida / Washington UNDER
BIG AL
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AFTERNOON GETAWAY DAY TOTALS WINNER; 20-8-2 RUN Last 30 Plays!
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Baltimore Orioles / Detroit Tigers Over
INDIAN COWBOY
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4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 between the Atlanta Braves @ LA Dodgers
MIKE NERI
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Philadelphia w/Lee
1 Unit to make .62 Units
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Arizona w/Scherzer -125
1 Unit to make .80 Units
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Minnesota w/Blackburn -145
1 Unit to make .69 Units
Rocketman
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5* Twins
Seabass
30 Fla
50 Minn
100 Blt over
Allen Eastman
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3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 Colorado at Philadelphia
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Two aces are on the hill in this rubber match and I think that it will have a slight playoff feel to it today. Aaron Cook is great at keeping the ball down, so he should avoid giving up too many home runs. Cliff Lee looked great in his last outing and I think that he's ready to have a great stretch run in the National League. This number is a full run high and I like it to stay 'under'.
Craig Davis
30 DIME - YANKEES (With Chamberlain) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RED SOX (With Smoltz)