Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, July 1,2010

Joe Wiz Pay After You Win - Cleveland Over

Asian Executive Lock of the Month - Colorado

I am getting Asian Idiot's CFL package.

Asian Executive CFL - Montreal

Writeup: Montreal had the top offense last season and they are returning a QB and 3 LB. I anticipate Montreal winning by 10 or more based on active power ratings and public money pushing the line down. Montreal is the play for Thursday.

Sports Investment Group

Toronto -140

NSA

20* Yankees -1.5
20* Reds +135
20* Blue Jays -150

KIKI SPORTS

2 Units NY Mets -135

1 Unit Oakland -145

1 Unit Texas +115

BIG AL

At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Indians. What started out as a dream season for the Blue Jays in quickly turning into a nightmare. They are on the verge of the unthinkable - a four game sweep at the hands of the lowly Cleveland Indians. Righthander Shaun Marcum will do everything he can tonight to make sure that doesn't happen. And he is in a good position to stop the bleeding. Not only is Marcum 2-0 with an excellent 2.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his last three starts, but his opposing starter will be righthander Justin Masterson who is about as polar opposite in his last three as anyone can be. Masterson has really struggled lately, going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his last three, and the Tribe are 0-3 in those games. That horrendous WHIP over the last three is actually slightly better than his number on the season (1.62) as Masterson's biggest enemy this season has been walks. He's averaging right around one free pass for every two innings and that many walks will certainly hound any starter through the course of a season. It's hard to imagine the Indians giving Masterson much run support without the services of two of their biggest offensive threats, outfielder Grady Sizemore, out for the season after knee surgery, and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, who is out until at least late July with a broken forearm. Toronto is 8-2 in Marcum's last 10 starts on grass. Take the Jays.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees 'under' the total. In the first game of this series on Tuesday, the Mariners broke from their norm and actually put seven runs on the board while beating the Yanks 7-4 in front of what was probably a stunned Bronx crowd. It was only the second time that Seattle had scored more than five runs in the entire month of June. Perhaps it was the way of the Mariners' hitters to give starter Cliff Lee a going-away present, as Lee likely won't be with this team much longer -- and ironically the Yankees are one of the teams who are very interested in the Lee's services. After duplicating the feat on Wednesday and blanking the Yanks 7-0 behind Felix Hernandez, expect Seattle to revert to its normal two or three runs of offense tonight, if it can even muster that much against a very tough customer in southpaw CC Sabathia. Sabathia is going for his sixth straight win tonight and the unfortunate starter on the other end of box score will be M's lefthander Ryan Rowland-Smith who at this point can't be considered much more than a place-holder for lefthander Erik Bedard who is on a rehab assignment and apparently doing well and very close to returning to the team. Even with the 11 runs scored on Tuesday, the under is still 9-3-1 in Seattle's last 13 games on grass. Take the 'under.'

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Francisco Giants. The Giants called up top pitching prospect Madison Bumgarner from the minors and he got his first start of the season on June 26 and took the loss after giving up two homers early in the home game against the Red Sox. Despite pitching in four games in 2009, the loss against Boston was his first career decision. He takes on another tough opponent tonight in the Rockies but this time he has to travel to Denver for his first-ever start at Coors Field which is always a tough place, especially for young pitchers. Colorado will start righthanded veteran Aaron Cook who after logging winning records in 2007, 2008, and 2009 is just 2-5 in 2010 after his first 15 starts. Cook has been victimized and snake-bitten a bit this season, including his last start when he really only threw one bad pitch to the Angels. Unfortunately, that pitch was deposited in the seats by Hideki Matsui for a grand slam and although Cook went on to pitch flawlessly for seven more innings, his pitching line still shows the loss and four runs (three earned). Colorado is 65-32 in their last 97 home starts and they are also 6-2 in Cook's last eight trips to the mound at Coors Field. Take the Rockies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Rich Green

3* Baltimore + 1.5

Craig Davis

30 Dime NY Yankees -1.5

ATS LOCK CLUB

4 Units Twins -120

4 Units LA Angels -120

KELSO

25 Units Phils -1.5
15 Units Mets/Nationals Under 8
10 Units Texas +115
3 Units Oakland

Jeff Benton

25 DIME MINNESOTA TWINS

How do you not ride Carl Pavano tonight against Tampa Bay? The Twins right-hander is coming off back-to-back complete-game victories, both on the road and both against very good offensive ballclubs (Phillies and Mets). In those wins, Pavano surreadered a total of seven hits and one walk in 18 innings, and the only run he gave up was a solo homer in Philadelphia!

Over his last four starts, Pavano is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA, and going back to May 23, here are the veteran’s innings logs: 9, 9, 7, 8, 7, 7 and 8. The point: The guy has been a freaking workhorse for more than six weeks! Also, Pavano has delivered six quality starts in his eight home contests, and if not for one hiccup against the Royals way back on April 18 (he gave up seven runs in 3 1/3 innings), Pavano would be 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA at home.

Pavano is 5-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 10 career starts versus Tampa Bay, and his teams won seven of those 10 games. Tonight, he’s facing a Rays team that is batting just .222 over its last 10 games, including .198 versus right-handers.

Tampa had a miserable month of June (11-14 record), and despite winning 9-4 at Boston last night, the Rays are just 6-12 in their last 18 contests. And they haven’t won consecutive road games since June 1 and 2 at Toronto.

Two final points to make: Minnesota has been dominant in its new ballaark, going 25-14 at Target Field. Also, the Twins have owned the Rays in recent years, winning 36 of the last 52 meetings overall and 22 of the last 29 in Minnesota.

Rocketman

5* Oakland -140

Scott Rickenbach

10* Pittsburgh / Philadelphia Over

The Phillies had gone over the total in six of their last seven games before yesterday’s under. However, with Roy Halladay on the mound yesterday, it’s not a big surprise that his start would stay under the total as that has been the trend for his games for much of the season. What is a surprise is that, even with a few bats out of the lineup, the Phillies are still getting some big hits at the plate. That is why we won’t hesitate to step out with a big play on their over on Thursday. Yes, the Phillies have recently seen Chase Utley and Placido Polanco join Carlos Ruiz on the injury list. However, the Phillies have seen their replacements step in with some big hits and, facing Daniel McCutchen of the Pirates tonight, we certainly expect that to continue. The Pittsburgh right-hander has made just 10 career starts at the MLB level and, in his 11 games (10 starts) at this level, he’s gone 1-5 with a 6.46 ERA. This season has been particularly rough as he’s been knocked around at a .333 clip and left-handed hitters have been particularly tough on the 27 year old right-hander. The Phillies roster is loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters so this is not a good match-up for McCutchen.

Of course the other side of this equation is how well will the Pirates hit Cole Hamels of the Phillies. The key here is that the Pirates, though the weakest scoring team in the league, have fared quite well in recent home games. Pittsburgh has scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 10 home games. Though it doesn’t happen often, the Pirates are on a 19-11 run to the over when installed as a home dog of +175 to +200. This streak dates back more than a dozen years. When installed as home dog in that price range it tells you how bad their pitching situation is and we do expect McCutchen and a weak Pirates bullpen to get pounded. As for the Pittsburgh sticks, look for them to enjoy some success against Hamels. The Pirates are 6-3 to the over in Thursday games this season. They have enjoyed some success at the plate in recent home games, and Hamels has allowed 11 homers in his last 8 starts. The Phillies southpaw also has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 11 innings spanning his last two starts. Hamels has struggled on the road this season as indicated by his 3-4 record, 5.40 ERA, and a .302 BAA. The Phillies are 5-3 to the over in Thursday games this season and the Pirates were 3-0 to the over in McCutchen’s starts before he had a rare decent outing at Oakland last week. That is a pitcher-friendly park though and we expect him to struggle much more against the high-powered Phillies in this one. Note also that the Pirates lineup could get some help from a Phils bullpen that has struggled often in recent games! Play OVER the total in Philadelphia as a *10* Top Play selection.

KEITH FREDRICK

Brewers at Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals -125

Hawksworth makes his first home start and as such should be more comfortable than he was in his first two starts of the season, both on the road. I do look for him to pitch well. Wolf has allowed nine runs in 13.1 innings of work against the Cardinals this season, with seven of those runs being earned. Brew Crew also fits a 2-7 Go Against angle while the Cardinals are 22-12 this season after a loss. Lay the small number here.