Jim Feist
3* Phillies
KELSO
50 Units Texas Rangers +105
15 Units Los Angeles Dodgers +120
10 Units Chicago White Sox +105
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Chicago Cubs -130
4 Units Chicago White Sox +105
Bob Balfe
Boston Red Sox -111
The Rangers were one of the hottest teams in baseball and hit a skid ever since they traded for Cliff Lee. Losing 4 straight going into the All-Star break is never good. Texas does most of their damage at home and are average at best on the road. Look for the offensive struggles for the Rangers to continue tonight. Take Boston.
The Duke's Sports
ChiSox (-105) for 1.5 Units
The 'Sox were on a torrid 25-5 run since June 8th and we believe they'll sustain that hot run tonight. John Danks has been consistently strong on the road and we'll look for the Chicago lineup to give him the run support. Chicago is 17-5 vs a starter with a WHIP above 1.30. Slowey, although successful at home, has struggled vs the ChiSox (2-3 5.85 ERA) in 6 starts. The Twins' bullpen has struggled as well (5.59 ERA last 2 weeks). We'll look for Chicago to deliver again.
KEVIN FRANCIS
TEXAS RANGERS
Sean Michaels
San Fransisco Giants -1.5
Ben Burns
8* Mariners / Angels Under 8.5
The UNDER is 9-5-1 the last 15 times that the Angels hosted the Mariners. I feel that this evening's O/U line is generously high.
Pineiro gets the call for the Angels and he's been red hot. He's 6-1 his last nine starts, going a least six innings in all nine of those starts. Over his last six starts, Pineiro has allowed nine runs in 44 1/3 innings. That translates to a 1.83 ERA. He allowed three earned runs or less in all six of those starts, including one or less in four of them.
For the season, Pineiro is 6-2 with a stellar 2.22 ERA in 10 home starts, averaging 6.9 innings in those starts. Opposing batters are hitting .309 against him on the road but just .230 at home. Note that the Under is 12-8 in Pineiro's last 12 home starts, dating back to last season in St. Louis.
Admittedly, Fister hasn't been as hot as Pineiro and he also hasn't been as good on the road, as he has been at home. That said, he's coming off a very strong start, one which saw him allow just one run through six complete innings.
Also, Fister has pitched very well vs. the Angels. In two starts against the Angels he has a 2.51 ERA and 1.117 WHIP. Fister went seven or more innings in both of those starts. Those games both stayed below the total, finishing with scores of 4-3 and 2-1.
The Angels have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 121-80-4 the last 205 times that they were in that role.
The Mariners have seen the UNDER go 17-8-4 when playing a game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5, including a lucrative 10-3-2 on the road. Given Pineiro's recent form, I expect those numbers to improve here.
Lenny Del Genio
Minnesota -110
The White Sox were Red Hot going into the All Star break having won 25 of their last 30 games. Can the winning continue? We don’t think so. The worse thing that could have happened for the Sox is the three day break. Tonight they open a big four game series in Minnesota. The Twins now trail these first place White Sox by 3.5 games. Chicago sends lefty Danks to the hill tonight while the Twins counter with Slowey. Danks is coming off a great outing, a complete game shutout over the Angels where he allowed only two hits while striking out seven. However, Danks has struggled a bit on the road this season with a 4-3 TSR and a 4.29 ERA. For the Twins, Slowey has had an up and down season, but at home he’s been very effective this season with a 3.54 ERA and 6-3 TSR. In his last two starts he’s shown excellent control walking only one batter in each outing. This sets up a very strong situation for Slowey as he has a 14-2 TSR after walking one or less batters in his last two starts. The Twins come into this game having lost six of eight games, a situation that they are excellent in posting a 15-3 record over the last two seasons. Minnesota has owned these White Sox winning 16 of the last 20 games and we think they’ll beat them again tonight.
Seabass
200* Steam Cubs
C-Star Sports
5000 Units Atlanta over Milwaukee
1000 Units Cubs/Philadelphia UNDER THE TOTAL
1000 Units ST Louis over Dodgers
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* LA Angels -150
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Doug Fisters heads to the hill for the visitors; Fister enters the second half with a 3-4 record and 3.09 ERA.
Although he had a decent outing before the break, I'm not reading too much into that start as he was 0-1 with a disturbing 9.35 ERA in his previous two outings.
And keep in mind that not only is Seattle 1-6 its last seven overall, its also a horrible 8-17 its last 25 on the road; 7-21 (-16.3 units) vs. division opponents.
In the other dugout: Joel Pineiro gets the nod for the home side; Pineiro is 9-6 on the year with a 3.95 ERA.
He's gone at least six frames in his last nine outings with a 6-1 mark over that span.
Pineiro has already beaten the M's this season and remember, the Angels are 5-0 their last five vs. the M's; also 33-29 (+2.7 units) vs. right-handed starters and 16-11 (+4 units) against division opponents.
Bottom line: Los Angeles has averaged 8.0 runs en route to winning five straight versus Seattle, and leads the season series 7-2; expect more domination here with the superior pitcher and the home field advantage.
STREET ROSENTHAL
*200 Atlanta Braves -175
*200 Boston Red Sox -112
*300 Minnesota Twins -115
Jeff Benton
10 DIME Dodgers-Cardinals UNDER
Perfect setup for a low-scoring game here, as we’ve got two outstaading pitchers on the mound in Chris Carpenter and Clayton Kershaw and two offenses that figure to be sluggish coming out of the All-Star break (nothing like three days of partying to mess up a hitter’s timing, right?)
Kershaw comes into this one at 9-4 with a 2.96 ERA overall and 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA on the road. In his final three pre-break starts, the southpaw gave up just four runs on 15 hits in 20 2/3 innings (1.74 ERA), walking just two and striking out 25. That includes a 12-strikeout, no-walk performance a week ago when he led the Dodgers to a 3-2 victory over the Cubs.
Kershaw also has outstandeing career numbers against the Cardinals, going 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in six career starts (1-0, 0.60 ERA in two starts covering 15 innings at Busch Stadium). In 38 1/3 innings against St. Louis, Kershaw has 40 strikeouts and the Redbirds are batting .189. The final scores of those six games: 4-3, 4-1, 3-2, 3-2, 3-2 and 4-3.
As for Carpenter, he’s 9-3 with a 3.29 ERA on the season, including 6-2 with a 3.49 ERA at home. Most signifiocant for the big right-hander are his day-night splits. He’s 3-3 with a 4.62 ERA when working in sunshine, but 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA under the lights. And like Kershaw has dominated St. Louis in his career, so too has Carpenter enjoyed great success against the Dodgers, going 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in seven regular-season starts. That includes seven shutout innings in Los Angeles on June 8 (the Dodgers prevailed 1-0).
Take away his first career start against the Dodgers, and Carpenter has given up just five earned runs in 43 regular-season innings against L.A. (1.05 ERA). And his last three regular-season matchups versus the Dodgers have stayed under the total.
Finally, these teams have gone low in five of their last six Busch Stadium clashes.
Matt Fargo
Milwaukee Brewers