Chris Jordan
600♦ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (Hamels over Correia) -
A 10-game winning streak comes to an abrupt halt with a 10-5 loss, and I love the Phils even more because of it. In fact, I’d be more scared of tonight’s game if they would have won, cause we all know how hard it is to win 12 straight, let alone 11. Thus, still at home, and still red-hot thanks to a resurgent offense, this is going to be an ugly rout of the lowly Padres, who were shut out at home yesterday by Florida, and then traveled cross-country to take on the defending champs.The punchless Friars stuck out 10 times yesterday, and come into this series after being swept by Florida. And let’s be clear, there was no direct route to Philadelphia, not for the boys from Diego. They flew to Washington and are being bused into Philadelphia for today’s game, just to make up a game that was rained out on April 20. They’ll then be bused back to Washington for a weekend set featuring the two worst teams in the National League. Do you really think they’re going to be up for this contest tonight? Do you really think they’ll actually care about playing the defending champs?This is such a sad Padres team, which is 12-33 since June 1 - the worst record in the majors over that stretch – and finished up 1-6 on this last homestand against Colorado and Florida, as the visitors finished with 33 runs and 60 hits versus the Padres’ 12 runs and 42 hits.Now the listless Padres have to take on Cole Hamels, who has come alive of late, pitching much better than he had been over the first part of the season. The team is 3-0 in Hamels’ last three starts, in which he’s produced an respectable 3.50 ERA in. And in six career starts against the Padres, the San Diego native is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA.Most relevant with Hamels toeing the slab is the revenge factor for the southpaw, as he has to still be fuming from an April 17 outing that saw the Padres win 8-7 after he lasted six innings, gave up five earned runs, the home runs and upped his season ERA at the time to 11.17. Problem was, he left with a 7-5 lead.Tonight he’ll get plenty of run support tonight against Kevin Correia, who lost to the Phillies, 5-3, back on June 1, when he gave up a season-high 10 hits in 4-1/3 innings. Since July 3, and heading into last night’s series finale against Chicago, the Phillies lead the National League in runs (95), home runs (24), walks (74), on-base percentage (.373), slugging percentage (.489), ERA (2.15) and opponents batting average (.198) and the bullpen had allowed only three of 18 inherited runners to score.This is an absolute gift tonight boys, a GIFT. Lay the run line early, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see this price go off very high!
See How he did Last Night
Green Section ( Biggest Winners )
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jefferson-sports
early release
Arizona Diamondbacks
under 7.5 haren/morton
Scott Delaney
10-DIME N.Y. YANKEES RUN LINE (WITH Sabthia over Mazzaro)
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Part of the $201 million off-season investment won his fourth straight decision yesterday thanks to New York’s 6-4 win over the Orioles, as A.J. Burnett improved to 9-1 in 11 career starts against Baltimore and 4-0 in his past five outings overall. Today, another part of that juggernaut takes the hill to prove his own worth, and I’ve got no trouble counting on the Yankees to win their seventh straight behind the arm of C. C. Sabathia.
The Yankees are 6-0 since the All-Star break and appear to be on the same type of tear they went on last season out of the mid-season intermission, when they opened the second half 8-0. They’ve now won 19 of 26 to move 20 games over .500 for the first time since finishing 94-68 in 2007 and have opened a season-high, two-game edge over second-place Boston in the American League East.
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Now, in a groove in Yankee Stadium, the home-team Bombers get a crack at an Athletics team that easily busted its wad yesterday by shellacking the Twins, 16-1. The A’s scored five runs in the first and seven in the second - just the second time in team history they opened a game with back-to-back innings of five runs or more. And let’s not forget, this is the same offensively challenged team that rallied from 10 runs down to win the opener 14-13.
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Oakland scored at least 12 runs just once all season heading into this series, but now has pulled off the feat twice in three games. No way is a team traveling across the entire country ready for this one for the Yankees, where they’re burnin’ in the Bronx.
5-DIME ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (WITH Haren specifically over whomever the Bucs throw)
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I’m taking Danny Haren tonight against the Bucs, as he turned in another stellar performance his last time out. Tossing against NL Central-contending St. Louis, he allowed just one run over eight innings and has now recorded quality starts in 18 of his 19 outings this season, while he leads the Majors in ERA (1.96).
Remember, the Arizona right-hander was the choice of many who believed 1he should have gotten the start in the All-Star Game, but the honor went to the Giants' Tim Lincecum. It wouldn’t have been a bad decision, as Haren has allowed a total of three earned runs in his last four starts and just one run in his last two (17 innings). His ERA for July is 0.78, as he’s allowed just two earned runs in his three starts this month, spanning 23 innings of work, after holding St. Louis to a run over eight innings - striking out eight - in a 4-2 win Saturday.
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Tonight he catches a Pirates team that travels in after a 4-2 homestand, while the Snakes come in after a 2-4 road trip through St. Louis and Colorado. Thus, this is the perfect spot for Arizona to open things up, while Haren will limit Pittsburgh at the plate. He is 3-0 with a 3.56 ERA in five starts against the Bucs, and is facing a team that just traded its third key hitter in two months.
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Simply list Haren and go to town with this easy winner.
Al DeMarco
5 Dime - Arizona (Haren) - 1 1/2 Runs over Pittsburgh (Morton)
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Arizona's Dan Haren is 7-1 in his last 10 starts with a 1.44 ERA. He's won his last four outings while compiling an earned run average of 0.90. And batters this season are hitting a major league-low .187 against him.
Haren is 3-0 in five career starts versus Pittsburgh with a 3.56 ERA. The Pirates arrive in Phoenix one day after the trade of a third everyday starter in the past month as first baseman Adam LaRoche was shipped to the Red Sox on Wednesday.
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Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton is coming off an outstanding performance against San Francisco in his last outing, a game in which he struck out six and allowed three hits over seven shutout innings. But, it's important to note that effort came against the Giants, a team that's batted .192 and scored just 11 runs in six games since the All Star break.
The Pirates have won four of six, but that streak came at home. Tonight they're back on the road where season-to-date they're 16-33.
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The Diamondbacks have won nine of Haren's last 11 starts. Despite their lack of offensive production this season, they're worth the investment on the Run Line considering Haren's 1.70 home ERA and Pittsburgh's poor play on the road. Laying 1 1/2 runs in this spot to get the National League's most consistent - and perhaps best - pitcher at a near pick'em is worth the risk.
Dominic Fazzini
Thursday's play
10 Dime -- PHILLIES (Hamels) -1 1/2 runs over Padres (Correia)
PHILLIES
NOTE: List only Hamels as Philadelphia's starting pitcher
The Phillies’ 10-game winning streak ended Wednesday, but I don’t think they’re going to stay down for too long.
With the lowly Padres coming to Philadelphia, the world champions should bounce back with a win behind left-hander Cole Hamels (5-5, 4.72 ERA).
Hamels is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA in six career starts against San Diego. He struggled in his last outing vs. the Padres, giving up five runs and eight hits in six innings on April 17, but San Diego was hot to start the season while Hamels struggled over the first month of the season.
Hamels hasn’t been too sharp lately, going 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in four starts this month. But he probably doesn’t have to be at his best to beat the Padres, who have scored more than three runs just once in their last 13 games, and were shut out Wednesday for the ninth time this season.
Kevin Correia (6-7, 4.34) has made 11 quality starts this year in 19 starts for San Diego, but the right-hander gave up four runs and a season-high 10 hits in 4 1/3 innings against Philly on June 1.
These are two teams going in completely opposite directions. Philly averaged 5.7 runs per game during its 10-game winning streak, allowed an average of 2.6 per game and looks like a team ready to defend its world title. The Padres, on the other hand, are a major league-worst 12-33 since June 1.
San Diego will be in Philadelphia for just one day to make up a game that was rained out on April 20. This is not a good spot for the Padres. Take the Phillies on the run line today.
Jeff Benton
10 Dime: ANGELS on the run-line (-1 1/2 runs) over Twins. ... NOTE: Jered Weaver (Angels) and Scott Baker (Twins) must start this game or this play is VOID!
Angels (-1½ runs)
Before I get to what I like about the Angels tonight, let me explain what I don’t like about the Twins. For starters, their pitching staff is a mess! Two days after blowing a 12-2 lead at Oakland and losing 14-13, Minnesota gave up 12 runs in the first two innings of Wednesday’s 16-1 loss to the light-hitting A’s. Even BEFORE the Twins’ Glenn Perkins imploded yesterday, the Twins’ starters had a 5.55 ERA in their previous 10 games.
Since July 3, Minnesota has surrendered double-digit runs four times and given up five or more eight times. Not surprisingly, the team has a losing record (7-8) during this stretch. Frankly, I don’t see those numbers improving tonight, not with shaky right-hander Scott Baker on the mound. Baker is 8-7 with a 5.10 ERA, including a 5.71 ERA in his last three starts, and he’s had zero success in his career against the Angels, going 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA in six starts, with five of those starts and all four losses coming in Anaheim (where Baker has a 6.28 ERA). The Twins are 1-5 when Baker faces the Angels, getting outscored 30-12 in those six contests.
Now, about the Angels. What’s not to like about this team right now? It is coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Royals in which it scored 27 runs. The Angels have now won five in a row, nine of 10, and 26 of their last 35 games. They’re 9-3 in their last 12 at home. They’ve won 12 of 13 series-openers. And during the ongoing 26-9 run, 20 of the 26 victories have come by multiple runs, including 15 of the last 18.
As for starter Angels starter Jered Weaver, here’s all you need to know: He’s 10-3 with a 3.41 ERA overall, the Angels are 13-6 when he pitches (9-2 in his last 11), and he’s been light’s out in 10 home starts, going 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Los Angeles is 8-2 when Weaver pitches at Angel Stadium, winnings seven of those games by more than a run, including consecutive routs of the Rangers (9-4) and Yankees (14-8) in Weaver’s last two at home. Also, Weaver is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in four career games against the Twins; all four were quality starts; he pitched into the seventh inning in all four contests; and his two wins came at home by the scores of 16-3 and 6-2.
Finally, from a betting perspective, only two teams – the Giants and White Sox – have brought home more run-line money than the Angels. And only one team – the rival Dodgers – has been a better overall bet than the Angels. Throw in the fact that Minnesota has lost 20 of its last 28 games in Anaheim, and I’ll ride Weaver and look for him to guide the home team to an easy victory. Lay the 1½ runs.
Rated Picks
MLB 07/23 Toronto Blue Jays pts: -155 3 units
MLB 07/23 LA Angels pts: -150 3 units
MLB 07/23 St Louis Cardinals pts: -1.5 (+115) 3 units
MLB 07/23 *BP* St Louis Cardinals pts: -145 5 units
MLB 07/23 NY Yankees over pts: 9 = 4 units
Be leery of these Two
Teddy Covers
Chicago White Sox
Larry Ness
20 Unit Play White Sox
Got to go
Good Luck !!!
Kiki Sports
2 units NYY -1.5
Wunderdog
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San Francisco at Atlanta
Pick: 3 units Atlanta -170
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San Francisco at Atlanta
Pick: 3 units Atlanta -1.5
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Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Pick: 2 units Chicago White Sox -1.5
BEN BURNS
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R.L. ANNIHILATOR
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SF GIANTS
Craig Davis
75 Dime ---- DIAMONDBACKS (With Haren) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over PIRATES (With Morton)
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ARIZONA (with Haren) -1 1/2 runs over PITTSBURGH (with Morton) --- I told you recently that I smelled a big play coming up, didn't I? Well, if all plays out right I might actually have two big plays within a few days of each other. Let's focus on today.
Would it surprise you a bit if the Pirates didn't score a single run tonight? Let me tell you, I wouldn't be surprised. The Buccos scored 8 runs in an 8-7 win over Milwaukee last night in Pittsburgh... now they have to turn around, pack their bags and head out west to the desert. When Pittsburgh scores that many runs in a game, you figure they've used up their arsenal for a few games because they just don't score a ton of runs, on average. The Pirates had previously scored just 17 runs in their last six games, and in one of those games they scored 8. Combine the lack of run scoring from Pittsburgh (especially on the road) with the fact they are facing one of the league's best pitchers in Dan Haren.
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Haren has been absolutely SICK in his recent outings, posting a 0.78 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP in his last three starts. That's just not human, is it? His ERA for the season is 1.96 and his WHIP is an incredible 0.80, meaning you rarely see a runner on base when Haren is on the hill. He hasn't allowed more than a single earned run in his last four starts, and before that (ironically, his last loss) he only allowed two earned runs through eight innings (a 2-1 loss to Texas). In fact, only once this season has he even allowed more than three earned runs in a game and only twice has he surrendered more than two earned runs. Yeah, think about that for a minute. Here you have a pitcher who you can pretty much guarantee is going to throw for at least seven innings, he's pretty much likely to allow less than a base runner per inning and probably won't allow more than a run through those seven innings. How can you not like your chances backing this team when Haren is on the mound, especially facing hapless Pittsburgh?
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Speaking of Pittsburgh, they have only player that poses a threat with power and one player hitting over .300... and one of them was traded yesterday. Adam LaRoche, the team leader in HRs and RBIs for the Pirates, was traded Wednesday to Boston for two minor league prospects who won't have any impact in 2009. Wow, talk about a kick in the crotch... the only hope for the long ball and runs driven in won't be in uniform tonight when the Pirates arrive in Arizona. Tough break for them; great break for us. And if the team's .251 batting average isn't enough for you to get excited, how about the fact that Haren allows opponents to hit just .179 against him when pitching at home. Wow, it's all shaping up nicely for our side, wouldn't you say?
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As for PIttsburgh's pitcher tonight, Charlie Morton, yeah, he's been good but I definitely wasn't impressed with his last road performance. In just four innings of work in Houston, Morton allowed ten hits and five earned runs as the 'Stros blanked the Pirates 5-0. The fact is, Morton has been too "spotty" for me and this is one of those situations where I see him falling flat on his face. Arizona took two of three from Pittsburgh at home last season and Haren garnered a 13-7 win in his only home appearance against the Bucs. He (Haren) also faced them in Pittsburgh in 2008, earning a 4-3 win. Arizona is 6-1 in their last 7 as a favorite, 8-3 in their last 11 vs. righties, and 7-1 in Haren's last eight starts as the favorite. Folks, it's going to be all Arizona tonight. I would not be surprised, at all, if we see the final score somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-1 in favor of the home team. It's time to put our recent profits on the line and really put a hurtin' on your man.
Lou Panelli
20* Arizona under 7.5 (100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* Giants under 8.5
10* White Sox -110
10* Angels over 8.5
10* Detroit under 9
10* Detroit -120
Wunderdog
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Indiana at San Antonio
Pick: 3 units UNDER 139.5
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The Indiana Fever have been the biggest surprise in the WNBA as we head to the midpoint of the season. They enter here with a mark of 12-3, and will face the San Antonio Silver Stars in San Antonio. The Silver Stars have one trait that is likely to really show itself against a top team. They can really get after it on defense if playing with the right mindset, and what a better place to display that than at home vs. the league leader. The Silver Stars have shown that as they have played four straight to the UNDER against teams with a winning record. Indiana has made it to the top by playing defense, and currently allow the fewest points per game in the league. There is also a history of low-scoring games between these two as they have played four straight to the UNDER.
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Chicago at Washington
Pick: 3 units Washington -6
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The Chicago Sky have really been an enigma. They have been one of the top defensive teams when playing at home, allowing just 71.8 points per game. That means they hold offenses to what would be a league-low average. The road has been a complete joke as they have played an "old" type defense that allows 88 ppg. That leaves them in a tough spot on the road where they have compiled just a 2-7 mark on the season both SU and ATS. They allow over 10 points per game more on the road (88.3 per contest). So while the offenses in this game are fairly even, Washington has a huge defensive edge (13 ppg difference!). The Mystics are strong from beyond the arc, converting 37.1% of three-pointers and this spells trouble for Chicago who is just 1-7 ATS this year vs. teams that make 33%+ from long range. In games with a total posted at 140+, the Sky are 1-7 ATS this year and I look for that to drop to 1-8 after this game.
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Sacramento at New York
Pick: 3 units Sacramento +6.5
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The Monarachs have won just one game out of ten on the road this season. The betting public doesn't want to touch them. But, we don't need them to win this game, just cover a large spread. Granted, it's tough to find a reason to like Sacramento when looking at their stats. But, the linesmakers are no dummies. They know this and they are shading their lines. It's often the ugly ducklings like this that cover spreads. New York could get caught off-guard here. They know Sacramento is weak, so a letdown is very possible. They have won three of their last four, which provides more reason to take it easy a bit here. They are also playing on back-to-back nights (with travel) and this is their fourth game in the past week. And in the past, that has not served them well as the Liberty are just 1-8 ATS the past three seasons in this situation. I like the Monarchs plus the points here.
KBHoops
5* Whitesoxs UNDER 9.5 **POD**
5* Toronto UNDER 9
5* Detroit UNDER 9
5* Yankees UNDER 9 +115
5* Arizona UNDER 7.5 +100
5* Atlanta UNDER 8.5 +100
Fantasy Sports Gametime
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100* Play Toronto (-150) over Cleveland (TOP MLB PLAY)
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Cleveland has lost 16 of the last 22 games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 17 of the last 22 games coming off a combined score of 15 runs or more. Cleveland has lost 51 of the last 81 day games and David Huff has an ERA of 8.38 in road games this season. Toronto has won 3 of the last 4 games and Marc Rzepczynski is 1-0 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.50.
100* Play Atlanta (-165) over San Francisco (TOP MLB PLAY)
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San Francisco has lost 6 of the last 7 games and they have also lost 19 of the last 24 road games as an underdog of +125 to +175. Barry Zito has lost 7 of the last 10 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he is 5-10 in all games this season with an ERA of 4.89. Atlanta has won 6 of the last 7 games and they have also won 3 consecutive games vs. San Francisco at home this season.
100* Play St. Louis (-150) over Washington (TOP MLB PLAY)
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Washington has lost 15 of the last 19 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have also lost 47 of the last 65 games after having lost four or five of the last six games. Washington has lost 11 of the last 13 games after allowing one or less runs coming off a division win and they have also lost 12 of the last 13 games when their bullpen has thrown less than three innings over the last two games. Adam Wainwright has won 11 of the last 14 games vs. NL East Division Opponents and he has also won 8 of the last 9 road games.
CFL Football
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50* Play Montreal (-14) over Hamilton (CFL FOOTBALL TOP PLAY)
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Montreal has won 4 consecutive games vs. Hamilton at home and they have also won 29 of the last 34 games as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. Montreal is averaging over 44 points a game on offense this season and they are also allowing an average of 17 points a game on defense this season. Hamilton has lost 17 of the last 19 games as a road underdog and they have also lost 12 of the last 13 road games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 points.
WNBA Hoops
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50* Play San Antonio (+3) over Indiana (TOP WNBA PLAY)
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Indiana has lost 18 of the last 27 games against the spread coming off an OVER the total and they have also lost 16 of the last 20 road games against the spread coming off a road win. San Antonio has covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games vs. Indiana and they have also covered the spread in 6 consecutive home games coming off two or more losses.