Free Picks : Premium Service Plays for Thursday July 30, 2009

Craig Davis

100 DIME ---- MILWAUKEE BREWERS (with Gallardo) -1 1/2 RUN LINE
over WASHINGTON NATIONALS (with Martin)

Honestly, I don't even know where to begin. This month of July, with the exception of the last two days (two very tough, close losses) has been a hot bed of cash. I've never seen so many easy winners in my life and today is no different. The Milwaukee Brewers are going to plant a big, fat "L" on the foreheads of the Washington Nationals this afternoon for a number of reasons.First off, have you seen how poorly the Nats have played on the road this year? 12. And keep this in mind... they just took two of the first three in this series with Milwaukee, so coming in they had 10 --- yeah, 10 road wins all season long. That's worse than San Diego. That's worse than Pittsburgh. That's the worst in Major League Baseball and I don't see it getting better anytime soon. Looking back at the first three games of this series, it's obvious why Washington was able to grab two wins right off the bat: Poor Milwaukee pitching. The Brewers have basically become Yovani Gallardo and four #4 starters, and today the young righty looks to stop the bleeding.Gallardo finally settled down in his last start (coming in off three shaky starts), pitching 7 1/3 scoreless innings in a 4-0 win against the Braves. He allowed just four hits and four walks, striking out six in his best performance since July 1st. Ironically enough, that game (the July 1 outing) was also against a team from the NL East. In fact, if you look back at his 2009 performances vs. teams from that division, he's 2-1, working 22 1/3 innings allowing just ONE earned run. His lone loss was a 1-0 setback to the Mets in which he struck out 12 hitters. Gallardo recently had a conversation with future Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman about not "wasting his pitches" and running up his pitch count. Although his walk total in the last game was a bit high, he still has taken Hoffman's advice to heart and really wants to finish today's game with under 100 pitches.There's more. Not only does Gallardo own the NL East, he owns the daylight. His daytime ERA is a full run lower during the day (2.35) than at night and his opponent's batting average against is a sizzling .190 at home. He seems to bring his A-game when he's pitching in front of the home crowd, especially when a crappy team like Washington has come into his place and taken two of the first three. There is no way in heck he's going to allow the Washington Nationals to take three of four on their home turf... he wouldn't be able to live with himself.Now, let's talk about his opponent... J.D. Martin. A very small sample size to work with, but we do know this will be his first appearance on the road as a professional pitcher. He's had all sorts of experience in the minors as he was drafted in the first round of the 2001 supplemental draft by the Cleveland Indians. He was recently called up to Washington after a solid stint at Triple-A Syracuse, coming to the Nation's Capitol with a 2.66 ERA and an 11-3 record. However, in his first two starts with the Nats things have been a little shaky. A 7.50 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP is hardly someone I'd be excited about sending to the hill when I knew my counterpart was going to be Yovani Gallardo. Look, he might come out and surprise us for a few innings, but in the end the Milwaukee bats will figure him out and make him wish he was back in Syracuse. The Nats are 12-43 in their last 55 road games, dating back to last year, and have dropped 7 of the last 9 in Milwaukee. The Brewers always seem to take care of business when they are a decided favorite of greater than -200 (24-5 in the last 29) and they've won 7 of their last 10 with Gallardo on the hill when he is coming off a quality appearance in his last start. This one is going to be ugly as the Brewers win by at least 5.

Scott Delaney

15-Dime Reds -1' Runs (WITH Cueto over Stauffer)
5-Dime Cubs -1' Runs (WITH Hart and Ortiz) -

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10 Dime -- BREWERS (Gallardo) -1 1/2 runs over Nationals(Martin)

BREWERS
NOTE: List only Gallardo as Milwaukee's starting pitcher

The Brewers have been a big disappointment in July after entering the month in first place in the NL Central. They have lost 16 of their last 24 games, including two of the last three to the lowly Nationals.Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo (9-7, 3.09 ERA) has not been one of the reasons Milwaukee has slipped, however. The right-hander, despite a 1-3 record in July, has pitched relatively well. He has a 3.86 ERA in five starts this month, and pitched 7 1/3 scoreless innings Saturday against Atlanta in his last outing.Gallardo also drove in the first run in the 4-0 victory, the third time this year he has driven in the winning run.The Nationals will send rookie J.D. Martin (0-1, 7.50 ERA) to the mound. The right-hander, who will be making his third major league start, pitched two scoreless innings Saturday against San Diego before a rain delay ended his night. In his only other big-league outing, he allowed five runs and eight hits in four innings against the Mets.Washington is 11-50 in its last 61 games vs. right-handers, and despite two road against the Brewers this week, the Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 games in Milwaukee. And the Brewers have a hell of a lot more offensive firepower than either the Padres or Mets, so I expect Milwaukee to score quite a few runs today. Take the Brewers on the run line.

Al DeMarco

5 Dime - New York Mets Game 1
Johan Santana - $1.44
Johan Santana was hit hard in his last start, allowing five runs and 12 hits in 6.2 innings in a loss at Houston. His last bad outing prior to that one occurred on June 30 when he was rocked for nine hits and six runs in six innings in a loss at Milwaukee. In between, he went 2-1 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts, scattering 13 hits over 21 innings.Tonight Santana looks to rebound against a Colorado club the Mets have owned in New York, where they've won 20 of the last 22 meetings, including five in a row. And Santana has pitched his best at Citi Field this season, going 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA in 10 starts compared to a 4-6 mark and 4.48 ERA in the same number of road outings.Colorado's Jason Hammel is the opposite of Santana; the righthander has performed much better on the road (4-2 with a 2.08 ERA) than at home (1-3 with a 7.23 ERA), but no matter the location he's struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 4.45 ERA in his last five starts. In four of those outings, the Rockies have provided him with two or fewer runs of support.The Mets enter having won four in a row. More importantly, their injury-wrecked offense has flourished during the stretch, putting 29 runs on the board.Colorado is 5-9 on the road this year versus lefthanders. Considering Santana's home domination, and my abundant bankroll, I'm in the position of paying the elevated price to back to Mets in this spot. Although the run line option is tempting, especially at huge plus money, considering New York's offensive woes all season, the wiser move - again considering my winning streak and bankroll - is laying the price with Santana on the moneyline.

Top Rank Sports
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Atlanta / Florida OVER 8
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
N.Y. Mets GM2 +105 over Colorado

Power Play Wins
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Philadelphia Phillies -110

Michael Cannon

25 Dimes ROYALS (With Hochevar as listed pitcher)

Take the Royals for the road win this afternoon over the Orioles.
Kansas City will start Luke Hochevar and it looks like the 25-year old is having a breakthrough of sorts.Hochevar is coming off a dominating win over the Rangers on Saturday night. The right-hander allowed two earned runs and five hits and registered 13 strikeouts in seven innings. More impressively, he didn’t walk anyone in the Royals’ 6-3 win. Over his last five starts, Hochevar is 4-0 with a 3.55 ERA.Baltimore will counter with Brad Bergesen and the rookie has pitched well this year but hasn’t received much run support. The right-hander is just 1-3 in his last four starts despite a 3.65 ERA.I know Kansas City isn’t a very good team, but neither is Baltimore and the price should reflect that. There’s no way I would feel confident laying this kind of number with the Orioles, regardless if they are playing at home.With the way Hochevar has turned the corner this appears like a serious miscalculation by the oddsmaker.Take the Royals as they grab the road win.

Keep Both Eyes on this Group
Been Hot
___________________________

PlatinumPlays Win
Cubs Runlilne
Over 8.5 Fla
Stl -110
Phi -125
Over 10 Seattle
Under 9.5 NY

STEW FIND DURD
_________________

Sold it again Today

COLORADO ROCKIES @ NEW YORK METS 12:10 ET
METS ARE 10-7 THE LAST THREE YEARS AGAINST COLORADO. THEY ARE 7-1 AT HOME AGAINST COLORADO AND 2-0 THIS YEAR. SANTANA GETS THE START TONIGHT FOR NEW YORK AND WILL POST HIS 12TH WIN OF THE YEAR. HE IS 7-3 AT HOME WITH AN ERA 1.86. HAMMELS LAST 3 STARTS HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE. HE IS 0-1 WITH AN ERA OF 5.52. THE METS ARE 27-20 AT HOME AND WILL WIN THIS ONE GOING AWAY.
METS -144 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION

charlie sports

mlb. washington @ miwaukee under 8' runs early card
& atl @ florida under 8 runs late card ( 500*).
mlb. reds-150 (30*)
mlb. phillies-125 (20*)
mlb. rockies-130 (20*)
mlb. dodgers-110 (10*)
mlb. yankees-125 (10*) free play

RatedPicks

Game of the Year Release

*BP* Cincinnati Reds pts: -1.5 (+140) 5 units np
*GOTY* Cincinnati Reds pts: -155 5 units np

Our regular card for 7/30:
Atlanta Braves pts: -160 3 units
Florida Marlins over pts: 8 3 units
Boston Red Sox pts: -340 5 units

Jack Jones

15* on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +135
Play on the Orioles over the Royals Thursday afternoon. Luke Hochevar has struggled for the Royals on the road this season posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Meanwhile, Bradley Bergesen has been incredible for the Orioles, particularly when he pitches in Baltimore. So far he is 6-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 10 starts at home (the Orioles are 8-2 in all of his home starts). The Royals are now 17-28 on the road and are scoring just 3.5 runs per game in those games. The Orioles are now 27-23 in home games while posting 5.1 runs per game in Baltimore.

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Cincinnati (-145) over San Diego (MLB TOP PLAY)
San Diego has lost 45 of the last 61 games as a road underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 20 of the last 26 games in the month of July. San Diego has lost 24 of the last 33 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and Tim Stauffer has lost 4 of the last 5 games. Cincinnati has won 3 of the last 4 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and Johnny Cueto has won 2 consecutive games vs. NL West Division Opponents.

100* Play Baltimore (-150) over Kansas City (MLB TOP PLAY)
Kansas City has lost 17 of the last 24 games in the month of July and they have also lost 22 of the last 34 day games. Kansas City has lost 8 of the last 12 games when playing on a Thursday and Luke Hochevar has an ERA of 6.75 on the road this season. Bradley Bergessen has won 8 of the last 10 home games and he has also won 5 consecutive games as a favorite of -110 or higher.

100* Play Atlanta (-150) over Florida (MLB TOP PLAY)
Javier Vazquez has won 4 consecutive games in the month of July and he is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.57. Florida has lost 12 of the last 18 games as a home underdog of +100 or higher and Rick Vandenhurk has lost 5 of the last 6 games as an underdog of +125 to +175.

CFL Football
50* Play Montreal (-6.5) over Edmonton (CFL FOOTBALL PLAY)
Edmonton has lost 5 consecutive games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and they have also lost 5 of the last 6 games against the spread coming off a road win. Montreal has won 7 of the last 8 games when playing in weeks five through nine and they are averaging over 41 points a game on offense in road games this season.

WNBA BASKETBALL
50* Play San Antonio (+2.5) over Sacramento (WNBA HOOPS PLAY)
Sacramento has lost 7 of the last 8 games and they have also lost 2 consecutive games vs. San Antonio. Sacramento has lost 10 of the last 12 games against the spread vs. division opponents and they have also lost 5 consecutive games against the spread when playing their 2nd game in 5 days.

Teddy Covers

Rockies/Mets game 1 under Big Ticket