KIKI SPORTS
3 Units St. Louis +140
1 Unit San Diego -145
1 Unit Toronto -125
Dave Cokin
San Diego Padres
King Creole
2* Angels / White Sox Under 8.5
This is a series that's heavily skewed toward LOW-scoring results. With last night's game going 'Under', this Chicago / LA series has gone 10-25-1 O/U in the last 36 meetings... and 3-9-1 O/U in the last two seasons.
SANTANA: 1-6 O/U vs AL Central teams... 1-4 O/U away vs > .500 opponents... 2-8-2 O/U in Game Four of a series... 3-8-1 O/U on Thursdays.
DANKS: 5-17 O/U vs AL West teams... 3-11 O/U~ on Thursdays... 3-9 O/U after 5+ runs... 4-12 O/U as a home fav of -150 or less.
BILL MILLER gets the call behind home plate. Historically... a GREAT 'Under' Umpire (17-44-3 O/U in the last 2+ seasons). In the 2010 year, he comes in with a record of 5-13-2 O/U. Current streaks include 3-10 O/U since the middle of May with an average of only 7.3 combined runs per game. And in his last FOUR games overall, he's gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U... with an average of only 5.0 runs per game. He's also 3-10 O/U on the season when the OU line is 9 < runs. In 'Righty vs Lefty' pitching matchups, Miller has gone 9-28-2 O/U in the last 2 years. His strikeout to walk ratio is just what we are looking for to produce a LOW-scoring outcome. During his current 3-10 O/U streak... he's had 188 K's.... and only 59 BB's. That's an extremely high ratio of 3.18 strikeouts for every walk.
Marc Lawrence
San Diego -150
When San Diego sends Mat Latos to the mound against Luis Atilano and the nationals in the nation's capitol this evening they will do so knowing he is 9-2 with a 1.61 ERA in his last 11 team starts. That's how long it's been since the Padres pitching coach moved Latos from one side of the rubber to the other in order to make his slider more effective. And it's worked wonders. Furthermore, Latos is 10-5 in his career road team starts, including 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA in his last seven efforts. He's also 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his career team starts during July, including 2-0 away. With Atilano 1-5 in his last six team starts, look for Latos to improve to 3-0 in his career team starts in this series here tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on San Diego.
Lenny Del Genio
LA Angels +140
The Angels are on the verge of getting swept this afternoon in Chicago. The White Sox beat the Angels for the third straight time last night 5-2. Tonight, LA sends Santana out to the mound to avoid the sweep. The Angels righty has pitched very well on the road this season with a 3.04 ERA in his eight starts. One of those road starts was right here in Chicago and he pitched very well going seven innings without allowing an earned run. Danks doesn’t have very good career numbers against these Angels with a 2-5 team start record. We’re looking for the Angels to salvage this last game of the series knowing that Santana is a great dog pitcher posting a 10-1 record when installed as a $150 or less puppy. Also, he loves pitching against the AL Central posting a 10-1 team start record. Meanwhile, Danks can’t be trusted as a home favorite posting a 13-18 (-13 units) in that role. LA likes playing baseball in the sunshine as they are 18-10 this season in day games. It all adds up to an LA win this afternoon in Chicago.
Seattle +145
The Yankees come up to Seattle after sweeping Oakland and have now won five straight. Meanwhile, the M’s were swept by the Royals here in Seattle. The pitching matchup tonight has Pettitte for NY and Vargas for Seattle. Pettitte has been rock solid all season with a 2.82 ERA and 13-3 team start record. Vargas has pitched outstanding here in Seattle this season with a 2.30 ERA and outstanding 7-2 team start record, despite Seattle’s lack of hitting. We think this is a soft spot for the Yankees tonight after sweeping Oakland and having to travel to Seattle, especially against Vargas. This season, the Yankees have faced pitchers with good control like Vargas who allow less than 1.75 walks per start 25 times. They haven’t done very well with a 10-15 team start record and since they were favored in those games they have lost 13.6 units. We have great value here tonight with Vargas and we’re taking it. G
Scott Delaney
50 Dime TEXAS RANGERS
Craig Davis
75 Dime St. Louis Cardinals
TEDDY COVERS
Big Ticket Cincinnati Reds
LA Angels/White Sox Under 8.5
KELSO
50 Units Texas Rangers -1.5
15 Units Reds/Phillies UNDER 9.5
10 Units SD Padres -160
Scott Rickenbach
8* Angels / White Sox Over 8.5
Even though the White Sox pounded out 12 hits in last night’s game, it still stayed under the total. Don’t look for a repeat of that this afternoon. The White Sox will be “teeing off” against Ervin Santana of the Angels and he’s gone 2-3 in his last five starts with 20 earned runs allowed on 40 hits in 32 innings of work. While it is true that Santana had a very strong effort against the White Sox earlier this season, it’s also true that he had a 4.88 ERA against the ChiSox in 9 games (8 starts) in his career prior to that. Now, with the White Sox getting another look against Santana this season, don’t be surprised if they fare much better than they did against him in May. Santana’s career ERA on the road is a 5.10 compared to a solid 3.86 at home. Also, his career ERA in day games is a 5.32 compared to a respectable 4.06 in night games. The White Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have averaged 5 runs per game during this solid stretch.
As for the Angels sticks, they certainly have struggled recently. However, they are facing a hurler whom they hammered last season and that should help to get the Angels offense back on track in no time. John Danks gets the start for the ChiSox and he won just one of his three starts against the Angels last season. The White Sox southpaw compiled a 4.42 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in his outings against the Angels in 2009. Though he had a strong start against the Angels in May of this season, they are now getting a second look at him and his recent results indicate that his traditional second half fade is approaching. Note that Danks has a 4.71 ERA in July and a 4.67 ERA in August in his career. Also, he’s given up 8 earned runs on 11 hits and 6 walks in his last two starts and those outings have spanned just 11 innings. The Angels are 6-3 to the over in Thursday games this season. They also are 37-20 to the over in July games the last three seasons combined. The White Sox are 13-8 to the over this season when they are at home and the total is 8 or 8.5 runs. The ChiSox are averaging 10.5 hits per game in their last 10 games and their bats should stay hot here against Santana and one of the weaker bullpens in the majors! Play OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game as an 8* Regular Play selection.
Paul Leiner
100* Phi/Cin Over 9
50* Blue Jays -120
25* Hou/Pitt Over 7
Dave Cokin
San Diego Padres
Dave Cokin
Matchup: San Diego at Washington
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LATOS, M vs. (R) ATILANO, L
Play: San Diego (ML -145)
I'm not a big fan of laying substantial prices on the road. But there are times when there's still value in doing so, and I believe that to be the case tonight as the Padres finish off their series with the Nationals. San Diego will want to avoid the sweep here after back to back close losses. Road favorites in this scenario are 14-9 on the season, for a net profit of a little better than three units, so the trend tilts the Padres way. But the key to success here is red hot Mat Latos, who should have made the NL All-Star team. Latos is 8-1 over his last 11 starts, and the Friars are 9-2 in those games. In his last 79 innings, Latos has allowed only 68 baserunners, and just 15 earned runs, so he's in awesome form. I give Latos a huge edge over Luis Atilano, who has been less than sensational for the Nationals, particularly at home. The price is not cheap, but Latos and the Padres are worth playing tonight.
Sportsbook Guru
4* Rockies
Bob Valentino
30 Dime San Diego Padres
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 UNIT Toronto Blue Jays -125
4 UNIT Florida Marlins -115