King Creole
2* Marlins / Pirates Under 8.5
Combine a couple of starting pitchers in good current form with a top-notch 'UNDER" Umpire... and you get a LOW-scoring outcome in the Steel City on Tuesday night.
Getting the call behind the dish tonight in Pittsburgh is ED RAPUANO. he comes in with a 8-15-3 O/U record on the year. As of late, he's also trending "under" with a record of 1-3-2 O/U in his last 6 games. Average runs scored in those games is only 6.1. And in his last TWO games, the final scores in BOTH of 'em were as LOW as you can get: 1-0! In NATIONAL LEAGUE games, Rapuano is already 1-8 O/U on the season, with an average of only 6.2 runs per game. We also note that Rapuano has gone 0-4 O/U on Tuesdays. He has worked FOUR Florida Marlin games this season, and the results have been a nearly-perfect 0-3-1 O/U (6.2 RPG).... and he's 0-1-1 O/U in career Ricky Nolasco starts.
Speaking of Nolasco, he's off a gem of an outing in his last start. He pitched 6 innings of SHUTOUT ball 5 days ago in a 5-0 win over the Nationals. His K/BB ratio was also a sharp 8-1 in that game. He's gone 1-3-1 O/U in his last 4 road starts, with an ERA of only 1.95. His last start vs the Pirates was 8 innings of SHUTOUT ball in which he allowed only 3 hits.
Zach Duke of the Pirates is also off a couple of sharp starts in a row against the Padres and Rockies. In his last 10 starts, he's allowed 2 or LESS earned runs SEVEN times, In his career vs the Marlins, he's gone 1-4 O/U. He's 2-7 O/U when pitching after a Quality Start, 1-5 O/U vs the NL East, and 3-9 O/U off a team win in their last game.
2* Tigers / Yankees Under 7.5
This is a series that is heavily skewed toward the UNDER. Detroit and New York have already gone 0-5 O/U vs each other in the 2010 season (5.8 total runs per game)..... and 0-8 O/U dating back to last season. The Tigers have had their problems versus southpaws as of late as they are hitting only .202 in their last 10 games.
Working the plate tonight at Yankee Stadium is BILL MILLER... who comes in ranked in the TOP FIVE in 'Under' results for the year (8-17 O/U). His current form is 2-8 O/U in his last 10 games (6.3 ROG). He's also gone 1-6 O/U on the season in 'Righty vs Lefty' pitching matchups. In the last 2 seasons, Miller stands at 17-41-4 O/U... with a 5-16-2 O/U record in American League parks. And in the last 3 seasons, Miller has had more than THIRTY Unders as compared to Overs (31-63-6 O/U). As far as tonight's opponents go, Miller is 1-3 O/U in All Tiger games (L3Y) and 0-1 O/U in Justin Verlander starts. In NY Yankee games, he's 2-7-1 O/U... including a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in THIS park.
Justin Verlander is working on 8 STRAIGHT Quality Starts in a row... in which he has gone 1-7 O/U (0-6 O/U in his last 6!). Against the Yankees, Verlander is a PERFECT 0-3 O/U in the last 2 seasons, with an ERA of only 0.87. He faced the Yankees once this year, and threw 6.2 innings of SHUTOUT ball in a 6-0 Tigers win.
Speaking of Quality Starts in a row, CC SABATHIA is on a current 10-GAME streak in which he has allowed 3 or less earned runs in ALL of 'em (2.36 ERA). He;s also faced the Tigers three times in the last 2 seasons, and the UNDER has gone a PERFECT 3-0. He;s 0-4 O/U in Game Two of as a series, 2-6-1 O/U with 4 days of rest and 2-6 O/U vs the AL Central.
NSA
20* Red Sox -135 (GOY)
20* Blue Jays/A's Under 7
20* Baltimore -125
CRAIG DAVIS
20 DIME Cleveland Indians
15 DIME Philadelphia Phillies
MATT FARGO
9* Milwaukee Brewers +165
Scott Sprietzer
3* Baltimore
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Chicago White Sox +110
4 Units Cincinnati Reds -110
KELSO
25 Units NY Mets -160
15 Units Minnesota Twins -120
10 Units Baltimore Orioles -125
ASA
3* SF Giants
DONNIE BLACK
20* Braves Under 8.5
Mike Neri Sports
1 Unit Boston -138
1 Unit Minnesota -117
1 Unit Kansas City -160
FRANK PATRON
SEATTLE MARINERS +120
Bob Balfe
Cleveland Indians +152
The Royals have been on a bad losing streak and have not been able to find their offense. Zack Greinke is a good pitcher although he has not gotten the run support he needs to be favored by this much. Jeanmar Gomez might not sound like a masculine enough name, but he has pitched great in his limited action this year and I always favor a good pitcher who other teams have yet to face. When you have not seen a pitcher's stuff, the advantage usually lies with the pitcher. Take the Indians
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Minnesota -118
1 Unit Pittsburgh +132
1 Unit Arizona -102
Jeff Benton
20 DIME ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -1½
5 DIME TEXAS RANGERS
Cardinals-1½
Where to begin here? How about with Brewers starting pitcher Dave Bush. In his last five starts spanning 26 1/3 innings, Bush has been touched up for 29 runs and 40 hits. That includes two road games at Houston and Pittsburgh in which he got lit up for 16 runs (11 earned) in nine innings.
Bush’s numbers across the board are a mess: 5-10, 4.78 ERA overall; 2-5, 5.00 ERA on the road, 4-8, 5.04 ERA in night games; 0-2, 8.27 ERA in his last three starts. That includes Wednesday’s 8-2 loss to Arizona in which Bush gave up four straight home runs in a 10-pitch sequence, yielding seven runs total in 5 1/3 innings.
The Brewers are just 8-15 behind Bush this season (getting outsaored by nearly two runs per game on average) and 2-8 when he pitches on the road. And in 10 career games (nine starts) against the Cardinals, Bush is 2-6 with a 6.40 ERA, including 0-3 with a 10.57 ERA in three career starts at Busch Stadium.
Now juxtapose Bush’s numbers against those of Cardinals rookie lefty Jaime Garcia. Despite a couple of poor efforts in his last two outings, Garcia is still 10-5 with a 2.71 ERA this season, including 4-2 with a 1.94 ERA at home. He’s faced Milwaukee three times and gone 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA (those two wins were by a combined 12-1 score.
With this being a run-line play, it’s also interesting to note the followeing: 11 of the Brewers’ last 13 losses when Bush starts have been multiple-run defeats, and they’re 2-7 all-time when Bush starts against the Cardinals, with six of those seven setbacks being by more than one run. Meanwhile, 10 of the Cardinals’ 12 victories in support of Garcia this year have covered the run line (including those two aforementioned wins over Milwaukee).
Finally, these teams are obviously going in complrtely opposite directions. St. Louis is 65-51 (39-20 at home) and one game behind the Reds in the N.L. Central race. Milwaukee is 55-64 (27-33 on the road) and is 12½ games behind the Reds in the N.L. Central. And St. Louis owns wins over the Brewers this season by scores of 7-1, 5-0, 8-0 and 7-1.
Rangers
Rangers right-hander Tommy Hunter has struggled in two of his last three starts, allowing eight runs in three innings at the Angels and four runs in three innings against the Red Sox on Friday. But if you take away those two contests, Hunter has surrendered just 16 earned runs in 68 2/3 innings, good for a 2.10 ERA. Most importantly, Texas is 11-2 in Hunter’s 13 starts this season, including 4-1 on the road.
Hunter’s big-league season began on June 5, when he dominated Tampa Bay in a 6-1 complete-game victory, yielding just five hits and no walks. That’s one of 10 quality outings in Hunter’s 13 starts. The point: Except for two games this season – one of which Texas managed to win – Hunter has been a rock for the Rangers for 2½ months. And to get him at a plus price, even against a team as good as Tampa Bay, is incredible value, especially when you consider that Hunter is 2-0 with 2.33 ERA in three career starts against the Rays.
Yes, the Rangers lost 6-4 last night with their ace (Cliff Lee) on the hill, and yes the Rangers have alternated wins and losses in their last seven games. However, since getting swept at home by the Orioles right before the All-Star break, Texas has dropped consecutive games just twice in 29 games, going 9-2 after a defeat.
As for the Rays, they’ve ripped off three straight wins (two against the Orioles, one last night against Texas). But prior to that, they had been in a 2-7 funk, losing games to the Blue Jays, Tigers and Orioles. Tonight’s starter, Matt Garza, was on the mound for two of those defeats, and in fact Tampa has lost three straight and four of five behind Garza (the only victory was his no-hitter against Detroit. And in Garza’s four starts against Texas since last July, the right-hander has given up 19 runs in 22 1/3 innings (7.66 ERA).
Finally, when you look at the last 10 games for both teams, you’ll see that Texas has a better batting average (.275 vs. .238, including .299 vs. .208 against right-handed pitching) and a better ERA (3.90 vs. 3.98) than Tampa Bay. That’s especially impressive when considering the Rangers’ last five games have been against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
Mile Lineback
Red Sox (POD)
Pirates +1½
Tigers
Rays Team Total Over 4.5
Twins
Cards -1½