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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday August 18,2009

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(@jasper)
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Wonderdog

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 10.5 -105 (risk 2 to win 1.9)

The Indians have waited a longtime for Fausto Carmona to pitch the way he did in '07, when he won 19 games. He has battled through injuries, rebuilding arm strength, and appears to be back where he was. Carmona has pitched to a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts, not allowing more than two runs in any of the three games. It is the first time he has done so since last May. The Angels are down to Trevor Bell for this one, and he did not impress in his debut vs. the Rays where he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings and served up two long balls. The Indians have relished the role of a favorite where they are 4-0 in their last four, and against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Indians have cashed six of their last seven. All four of those games that the Tribe has won as a home favorite, have gone UNDER the total. These two teams have played 27-11-1 to the UNDER in their last 39 in Cleveland. I’m going with Cleveland and the UNDER here.

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cleveland +1.5 runs -160 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.5)

I went through a littany of reasons why I like the Indians in this one, and getting the plus side of the runline just adds to the value here. The Tribe is playing much better at 15-8 over their last 23 games, and would actually be an even better 17-6 to a would-be +1.5 runline over those same 23 games. I'm going with Cleveland on the runline here.

Game: Colorado at Washington (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.8)

The Washington Nationals are suddenly playing extremely well, and are now 11-3 over their last 14 games. They have even done a good job agaisnt righthand pitching of late as well as on the road - winning three straight. The Nats are now also 13-5 in their last 18 in the role of an underdog. The Rockies were a very hot team, but have cooled off considerably and are just 6-6 in their last 12 after going 39-15, so they are ripe for the upset right now. The Rockies have not been very favorite-like on the road with Jimenez on the hill, where they are just 9-23 in his last 32 starts on the road. The Nats are hot, and a live dog here. I will go with Washington.

Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -260 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.2)

The Tampa Bay Rays are becoming nearly automatic at home, while the Birds continue their road woes, especially against lefthand pitching where the Birds are just 62-132 in their last 194 on the road and overall, are just 19-50. The Birds are also just 9-44 in their last 53 on the road with a moneyline of +201 or higher, indicating they win about one in five, where we are laying less than one in three here. The O's are also just 1-10 in Berken's last 11 starts as a dog. The Rays 96-39 in their last 135 home games overall. The Orioles have been bombing out in Tampa Bay as they are just 1-8 in their last nine. This looks chalky, but reality says this is more like a five-to-one game, so I will go with the Rays here.

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 2:45 pm
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TONY BRUNO WINS

20x KANSAS CITY

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 2:50 pm
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SportsOddsAndPicks

Arizona at Philadelphia OVER 10

COLORADO -1.5 RUNS (-110) over Washington

KANSAS CITY +115 (with Meche) over White Sox

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 3:35 pm
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ATS LOCK

4 Units Mariners

4 Units Red Sox

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 3:58 pm
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Dr. Bond

24*Rockies -1.5 runs -110

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:11 pm
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Insider Sports Report

4 Star Under 9 Florida Marlins/Houston Astros

3 Star NY Yanks - 1.5 RL

3 Star Over 8 St. Louis Cardinals/LA Dodgers

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:12 pm
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Chris Jordan

200♦ TEXAS RANGERS RUN LINE (WITH Feldman for sure going for Texas) - Three straight wins after the season-opening win yesterday against these Twins, and tonight it continues with a blowout win.

The Rangers are now 19-11 since the All-Star break, and is sitting one game in front of Boston in the American League Wild-Card race and 4-1/2 behind the Angels in the A.L. West. And just knowing the type of week the BoSox have on tap, the Rangers will be geared up to keep this run going, while extending their Wild-Card lead.

It shouldn’t be hard against Minnesota, which has gone 11-18 in the second half to fall 6-1/2 games behind Detroit in the Central Division and 11-1/2 behind the Rangers in the Wild-Card race. And with Justin Morneau now listed day-to-day, the Twins could have trouble ending this current losing skid, which is at three games now.

I am getting the auto-list tonight, as the books do that to you when bet a total or run line, and I’m confident with Scott Feldman toeing the slab.

The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.32 in his last three starts and 7-2 with a 3.75 ERA in his last 10 starts. The Rangers have won eight of his past 10 starts. And he’ll be pitching to avenge a 4-1 loss to the Twins back on July 18, when he allowed three runs in six innings – registered as a quality start.

Lay the Run Line tonight and get the week started with a solid 200♦ price

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:13 pm
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Wayne Root

Chairman Angels

Millionaire Tigers

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:24 pm
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Chris James Sports

2* Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120)

1* Washington Nationals +159

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:24 pm
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Street Rosenthal

*300 Texas Rangers -162

I am taking the Rangers for another win tonight. I have the Twins as 1-15 SU since 2004 season as a Dog and their starting pitcher pitched less than 3 innings in thier last game. I also have Twins as 5-17 SU since 2007 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series. I also have the Rangers as 39-10 SU since 2004 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series. Take the Rangers for the win.

*200 Florida Marlins Over 9

I am going with the Over 9 in the Marlins game tonight. The Marlins starting pitcher has started 3 times vs the Astros and all three have gone over. The last three scores have been 10-6, 14-2 and 6-14. The last time Nolasco started vs Norris the score was 6-14. I also have the Marlins as 18-5 Over since 2004 on the road after a loss in which they had at least 5 or more team left on base then their opponent. Also, the Astros are 17-6 Over after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers. Sit back and watch the runs come in for a nice over play tonight.

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:25 pm
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KBHoops

5* Florida -106 **POD**

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:34 pm
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Ben Burns

Best Bet Cleavland Indians

Total Of Week Under Nationals

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:45 pm
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Payne Sports

Cleveland -105 5 Units

Why again are these Angels a dog or around even money again and all the money is flooding on these guys. Is vegas going to learn or do they know something. I am banking on they know something. These Indians have been pretty good of late and Fausto since being recalled from the minors doesn't have anything to show but a loss but he has pitched well in 3 starts. He has pitched 17 innings allowing on 15 hits with an era around 2.50, but looking into it his last start he pitched well, but his walks have hurt him. He only allowed 5 hits in 6 innings, and I look for Cleveland to give him some run support for once and look for Fausto to relax and pitch a very effective game where he has dominated the Angels with an era under 1 in around 18 innings. Throw in the fact that the Angels probable line up is 12 for 66 in their career against this guy. Take Cleveland as they coast to an easy win and take Cleveland on runline for 2 units at +165 and ml for 5 units.

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:45 pm
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Alatex?

He's HOT and has a big O/U play tonight.

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:48 pm
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MTi Sports

4* Mets
4* Nationals
4* Padres

 
Posted : August 18, 2009 4:56 pm
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