David Malinsky
4* MILWAUKEE over CHICAGO CUBS
The chance to take some loose change with the better team, better starting pitcher and much-better positioned bullpen is impossible to pass up in this one, as the floundering Cubs sink deeper into a season of huge disappointment. But we will have to sit back patiently as the edges unfold, since it is the latter stages of the game where we get this one.
There is nothing special to say about Chris Narveson and the Milwaukee bullpen, except that Narveson is more than functional at this price point, and the relief corps does not bring a single fatigue rating. For Narveson the key is to throw strikes, and in 17 IP over three starts since the All Star break he has only issued two W’s. That helps to keep the Brewers in the game while their bats gradually bring it home.
Lou Piniella will return to Chicago today after missing Monday’s game to attend a funeral in Florida, but he will not likely be in any hurry. His team has been out-scored by 46 runs in a current 0-5 slide, and the pitching is simply a mess. Now it is up to journeyman Minor Leaguer Thomas Diamond to get his first start, at the age of 27, and he is not in the right place at the right time for this setting. Diamond is more of a middle reliever being tried in a starter’s role, averaging only 5.1 IP per start at the AAA level, and his four July starts lasted only 17 frames. Now he is being asked to eat a big chunk of innings to salve the wounds from a bullpen that is bleeding badly, and that is not his game.
Where does Piniella turn after Diamond tonight? You certainly scratch Casey Coleman (63 pitches last night), Brian Schlitter (44), and Justin Berg (24 last night, off of a full inning at Colorado on Sunday). Carlos Zambrano is a no-go after working both Saturday and Sunday, including 53 pitches in the latter, and they may be holding him back for a start anyway. James Russell would be a reach, 27 pitches on Friday and 46 more on Sunday. Andrew Cashner threw 18 on Friday and 25 on Sunday, yet becomes one of the freshest options available. It leaves basically Sean Marshall, who threw 22 pitches on Friday and 18 on Saturday, as the only one near a clean fatigue rating from the middle relief corps, and of course Carlos Marmol if they can patch the game to that point, which we doubt. After what had been an under-achieving Milwaukee offense got a confidence boosting breakout last night (seven different Brewers had multiple hits), the door is wide open for plenty of good swings once again.
Teddy Covers
Mil/Cubs OVER 9'
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Milwaukee at Chi. Cubs
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) NARVESON, C vs. (R) DIAMOND, Thomas
Play: Chi. Cubs (ML -112) SOLID GOLD PLAY
The long road to the majors has finally been completed by Thomas Diamond. Once a huge prospect in the Rangers organization, Diamond has persevered through a multitude of physical setbacks and he makes his big league debut at Wrigley on Tuesday night. Diamond does not throw as hard as he used to, but he can still get it up there in the low 90's, and he's become a better strike thrower this season. This is not just an emergency start for Diamond, it's an audition for a spot in the Cubs rotation going forward. The opposing pitcher is Chris Narveson, who has been quite fortunate in winning eight games for Milwaukee. The Brewers humiliated the Cubs on Monday night, so I'm hoping the hosts will take the field with a little fire tonight. But more than anything, this is my tendency to play on debuting starting pitchers, and I'm therefore on the Cubs side tonight.
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Matchup: San Diego at L.A. Dodgers
Time: 10:10 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LATOS, M vs. (L) LILLY, T
Play: San Diego (ML +101)
No one has to twist my arm to back the Padres this season, especially when Mat Latos is throwing. This team has been money in the bank all season and Latos has been a dominant pitcher despite his relative inexperience. The Dodgers are hoping to get a big stretch run from newly obtained vet Ted Lilly, although the southpaw has very poor numbers in his limited innings at Dodger Stadium. But forget the pitchers here. The key to this play is that the Dodgers are simply a bad baseball team right now. They're playing without emotion, there have been some instances where players have loafed, most notably Matt Kemp, and I also cannot comprehend what Joe Torre is doing with the LA lineup. Someone will have to explain to me why he's installed Theriot at the top of the order. He's not a leadoff guy as he rarely walks and has a brutal OBP for that spot in the lineup. With Podsednik in the #2 hole, the Dodgers are now hitting Rafael Furcal third. Furcal is a leadoff hitter, not a 3-hole type. And this means that the run producers are getting less plate appearances in favor of Theriot and Podsednik. Hey, if I'm on the other side, I guess I like it! And that's where I am again tonight, once again backing the Padres to pick up another win over the reeling Dodgers.
Power Play Wins
Reds -122
King Creole
2* Indians / Red Sox Over 9.5
Last night's Game One of this series went OVER... with both teams combining for 11 runs and 24 hits. That makes it 3 STRAIGHT 'Overs' in this Boston / Cleveland series. The Indians come in on current streaks of 4-1-1 O/U as a big road dog of +200 or higher.... 3-0-1 O/U In their last 4 vs right-handed starters.... 4-1-1 O/U vs the AL East... and 26-12-1 O/U after allowing 5+ runs in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 14-6-1 O/U in their last 21 roles as a big fav of -200 or greater... 5-0 O/U vs poor starters with a WHIP of > 1.30... and 5-1 O/U vs the AL Central.
Projected pre-game WIND forecasts are to our liking. Anticipated winds are OUT to straightaway Center Field in excess of 15 MPH. We'll also benefi~t from a top-notch 'OVER' Umpire as well. Amongst all full-time "Men in Blue", TIM WELKE is ranked NUMBER ONE in the League in high-scoring results with an overall YTD record of 14-6-2 O/U. That's 70% of his games that have gone OVER in the 2010 season. For the year, he's also gone 7-2 O/U in all American League games... 9-3 O/U in Righty vs Lefty pitching matchups... and 4-1-1 O/U on this particular Day of the Week (Tuesdays). He's picked up this season right where he left off LAST year... when he went 30-16-3 O/U overall. And he's ALWAYS been strong in 'Junior Circuit' games... going 14-5 O/U last year on the AL... and 23-10-2 O/U in the last two seasons.
We also note that Welke has gone 6-1 O/U in all Cleveland Indian games in the last 3 years... and 1-0 O/U in career David Huff starts. In Boston Red Sox games, Welke has gone 2-0 O/U in the same time frame. And he's also gone a PERFECT 2-0 O/U in career Josh Beckett starts in the last 5 years.
David Huff was called up from Triple-A Columbus to make Tuesday's start for the Tribe. He didn't perform very well at the Minor League level as well... with an ERA of 5.62 in his last 4 starts. In the BIGS, his ERA id 6.04 on the year... and even worse on the road (7.51 ERA / .417 opponent team batting average.
Josh Beckett is only two starts removed from his long stint on the DL. For the season, he's gone 3-1 O/U in all home starts (ERA of 7.88). And 'under the lights', his ERA for the year is 7.31 (and 6-2 O/U).
JR O'Donnell
2* Tampa Bay - 150 and Over 8
The Minny Twins are banged up J. Morneau and J Mauer will not play We note the Twins 8 game win streak snapped last night, Tonight's Rz banger goes to Mighty Rays - 150 with Neihmann and Over 8. The 66-39 Rays need to keep winning and the Rock Neihmann 9-3 over all and a smooth and slick 3.08 ERA will spin another gem tonight and grab the 10th win !! Minny Twins Hurler Duensing is a false 4-1 over all and 1.83 ERA as wins vs.the lowly O's and Royals padded his stats.. The Rays are a smooth + 2.6 run winner on the power ratings and the Twins are 2-10 in their last 12 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, Rays a smooth 21-7 in their last 28 vs. American League Central Over and Tampa Bay strong!!
MTi Sports
Florida
White Sox GM 1
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play New York Mets (+125) over Atlanta
New York has won 12 of the last 16 games when playing on a Tuesday and pitcher, RA Dickey has an ERA of 1.29 over the last 3 starts. Atlanta pitcher, Derek Lowe has lost 8 of the last 9 games vs. division opponents and he has an ERA of 6.19 over the last 3 starts.
50* Play Toronto (+135) over NY Yankees
Toronto has won 5 of the last 7 games and they have also won 23 of the last 38 road games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Ricky Romero has won 3 consecutive games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he has an ERA of 2.08 over the last 3 starts.
50* Play Minnesota (+140) over Tampa Bay
Minnesota has won 8 of the last 9 games and they have also won 8 of the last 9 games after scoring 4 runs or less in three straight games. Brian Duensing has won 4 of the last 5 dome games and he is 4-1 overall this season with an ERA of 1.83.
100* Play Seattle (-12) over Tulsa
Tulsa has lost 19 of the last 20 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 10 games against the spread when playing as a home underdog. Tulsa has lost 8 of the last 9 games against the spread coming off a road loss and they have also lost 17 of the last 22 games against the spread after allowing 75 points or more.
Bob Balfe
Atlanta Braves -140
The Braves are almost money in the bank at home and know that, if they can sweep the Mets, they will not have to worry about them later down the stretch and can focus completely on the Phillies. New York is not a good road team and this is about the time of year that they start to fade away. Take the Braves.
Scott Rickenbach
10* Tampa Bay vs Minnesota Over
These teams are coming off a low-scoring match-up yesterday and, because of today’s pitching match-up, we feel we are getting fantastic line value with this total. As of early Tuesday morning, this total is currently an 8 flat. Considering the power of these two offenses, that is a great bargain. We expect Joe Mauer of the Twins to return tonight but, even if he doesn’t there is plenty to like about this total here. Also, Ben Zobrist could return here for the Rays. Again, even if he doesn’t, we still like what we see in this match-up. Jeff Niemann of the Rays has impressive full season numbers but he got hit very hard in his most recent start and allowed four earned runs on eight hits in six innings of work. A lot of the outs were also hard hit balls and Niemann has now given up ten homers in his last nine starts after giving up two longballs to Detroit in his most recent start. The Twins just saw Niemann about five weeks ago and that provides an extra added edge here for their lineup. Yes, the Twins were held to just two runs in yesterday’s loss but they had previously won eight straight games and averaged 8.3 runs per game during the 8-0 run!
Look for the Twins offense to get back on track as Niemann gets hit hard again. As for the Rays lineup, they pounded out ten hits yesterday and we expect more success against Brian Duensing of Minnesota. Yes, the Twins southpaw has impressed in his first two starts since moving into the rotation but he faced the Royals and Orioles in those outings. Now he steps up in class to face a solid Rays lineup and let’s not forget that Duensing’s last three outings have seen him give up 19 hits in 15 innings so he certainly hasn’t been unhittable. Righties have hit .280 against Duensing this season and the southpaw will see plenty of right-hand lumber in this match-up with the Rays. Tampa Bay is 9-1 their last 10 games and they’ve averaged nearly 9 hits per game in their last 6 games and they’ve averaged a respectable 4.3 runs per game their last 10 games. Yes, pitching has keyed many of their wins too but, as you can see from the above, there is more than meets the eye at first glance with EACH of the starting pitchers in tonight’s match-up. Niemann seems to be on a late season fade while Duensing is currently getting too much respect from the betting markets after his first two starts were solid – but were against weaker competition! The Rays are 28-19 to the over this season when facing a team with a winning record. The Twins are 4-1 to the over in games played on artificial turf this season. Minnesota is 38-28 to the over the last three seasons when they are on the road and the total is 8 or 8.5 runs. The Twins are 5-2 to the over in the second half this season when facing a team with a winning record. Two red hot teams, coming off a low-scoring 4-2 game yesterday, look for some offensive fireworks to return tonight. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a *10* Top Play selection on Tuesday night!
Al DeMarco
10 Dime St Louis -1.5
5 Dime Arizona
5 Dime Baltimore
5 Dime Colorado
NSA
20* Texas -145
20* Yanks -155
20* Braves -140
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Atlanta -135
1 Unit Colorado -134
1 Unit LA Dodgers -105
Michael Cannon
20 Dime Padres
10 Dime Giants
PHIL MAXWELL
NY YANKEES -140