JR O'Donnell
COL / FLA Over 9.5
MLB "Under the Radar Winner" goes to a Way Over 9.5 Marlins /Rockies. let's break this baby down at 7 10 pm
Lefty Nate Robertson has the ball tonight for the Marlins who will score some runs tonight at home! Let Jr back you into the winners circle as the Over is a sharp play here tonight. Last night's fireworks continue in Fla as a 9-8 final gave the Rockies another loss. Todd Helton from the Rockies provides a punch and the Rockies Hurler is Jeff Francis who is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA over his last 4 starts, let's back an Over here big time tonight in Fla!!
King Creole
2* Rockies / Marlins Under 9.5
This is am Umpire / Weather play ONLY. If we had some sharper starting pitchers on the mound tonight, it would certainly qualify as a 4* or higher BEST BET. But as it is, we'll rate as a normal 2** selection.
When taking a look at this year's Home Plate UMPIRE stats, the top two 'UNDER' guys are Greg Gibson and Jim Wolf... who both come in with identical 4-13 O/U records on the season. But right there in the #3 spot is tonight's 'Man in Blue' down here in South Florida. And that would be MIKE DIMURO, who comes in with a 4-12 O/U record on the year... and only 7.6 combined runs per game. That 7.6 RPG is even lower than previous two umpire mentioned (Gibson: 8.5 / Wolf: 8.3).
We don't just take a look at YTD stats when we are are studying the Umpires. Just like starting pitchers, it's important to look at CURRENT FORM in regards to the men behind the dish. We call it our 'What have you done for me lately' query. And Dimuro's has been an 'UNDER' machine. He's gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in his last 4 games (only 5.5 runs per game). And since the middle of May, he's gone a remarkable 1-9 O/U in his last 10 games... with an average of only 6.1 runs per game. His YTD records include 1-4-1 O/U in All NATIONAL LEAGUE games... and 0-2 O/U in "Lefty versus Lefty" pitching matchups. I found that last one intriguing and studied it a bit more. In the last 1.5 seasons, Dimuro has gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U... with an average of just 6.3 runs per game. He's also gone 0-2-1 O/U in ALL Rockie games the last 12 months... 0-1 O/U in Jeff Francis starts... and 1-4 O/U in ALL Marlin games. Throw in the fact that pre-game Weather forecasts project the winds to be blowing IN from right-center in excess of 18-20 MPH.... and we'll gladly accept an assist from Mother Nature.
Neither starter is in top notch form, but we do note the following: Nate Robertosn is a perfect 0-2 O/U in two career starts vs the Rockies. And Jeff Francis has a very good career ERA 'In THIS Park' (2.25).
Executive
250% LA Dodgers
BOB VALENTINO
100 DIME Cincinnati Reds -1.5
Mike Lineback
(POD) St. Louis Cardinals Team OVER 4.5 +100
Red Sox / Athletics Over 8
NSA
20* TB Rays -185
20* LA Dodgers -125
20* Atlanta/SD Under 8
Scott Rickenbach
10* Minnesota / Cleveland Over
We used this over last night and it won in solid fashion and we see no reason not to come right back with it here. This is especially true because last night’s game totaled 14 runs even though the Twins went just 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position last night! Look for Minnesota’s powerful lineup (they are still strong even without Justin Morneau) to enjoy much more clutch hitting success against Justin Masterson of the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander is 3-8 this season with an ugly 5.31 ERA. Additionally, he’s gone 0-1 with a 9.58 ERA in his most recent two starts. As for hoping to fare better against Minnesota, it’s unlikely that Masterson’s hopes will be answered. He’s 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA in his four career starts against the Twins. Overall, Minnesota has hit .301 against Masterson in his career. Additionally, the Indians right-hander is 1-5 with a 6.75 ERA and a .307 BAA in his road games this season. Teams have gotten to Masterson for at least five runs in four of his last six starts. In his career, Masterson has solid home numbers but, on the road he’s gone 2-15 with a 5.47 ERA! Additionally, in his career, Masterson also has a marked disparity in his day/night results. In day games he’s gone 6-5 with a 3.36 ERA but, at night he’s gone 7-18 with a 4.92 ERA. The Twins, even without Morneau, are loaded with left-handed pop and also have a few switch-hitters on the roster. The reason that is also a key here is that Masterson has been hammered by left-handed lumber throughout his career (.301 BAA) and we look for the Twins to bounce back from last night’s 10-4 loss.
Though the Twins should hit the ball very well tonight they will certainly need all the runs they can get. That’s because we also project Kevin Slowey of the Twins to struggle in this match-up. The Minnesota right-hander has allowed at least five earned runs in five of his last seven starts! Additionally, his last seven outings have seen him average less than five innings per game. That’s bad news for a Twins bullpen that got roughed up yesterday and that has regressed some in recent weeks. Speaking of bullpens, the Indians bullpen ranks in the lower third of the league and certainly could be an issue today as well with Masterson expected to get pounded. As for Slowey of the Twins, he allowed just three earned runs in five innings the last time he faced Cleveland but the Indians hammered him for nine hits in those five innings. The Twins are an amazing 13-3-2 to the over in their last 18 games and we see no signs of that trend stopping…especially not with these two hurlers on the mound. As for the Indians, they continue to hit the ball extremely well even though they are without some key bats in their lineup. With each win their confidence grows and the Tribe are hitting better than .300 during their current winning streak. On a pleasant evening at Target Field, the hitters continue to rule as the Indians just won’t slow down right now and the Twins love hitting at their new home park. Play OVER the total in Minnesota as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Baltimore / Tampa Bay Over
Jake Arrieta of the Orioles is coming off of back to back strong starts but they both came on the road. At home in his rookie season, Arrieta has a 6.06 ERA, a 1.84 WHIP, and he’s been pounced at a .297 clip. Of particular concern for the Orioles right-hander is that he’s walked as many as he’s struck out so far in his rookie campaign. Also, Arrieta has been pounded by left-handed hitters so far at the MLB level. He’s been pounded at a .342 clip by left-hand bats and the Rays are loaded with dangerous left-handed lumber including a number of switch-hitters who will be stepping in on the left side of the plate to face Arrieta. The Rays will step into the batters box with plenty of confidence as they have gone 10-3 their last 13 games and have averaged nearly 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Rays are 12-5 to the over this season in road games where the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. Tampa Bay is also 22-13 to the over in divisional games. After last night’s game snuck under the total, look for tonight’s to fly over the total.
Baltimore’s sticks have been a little quieter of late but this is still a team that has averaged 9.9 hits per game their last 10 games. The Orioles have not enjoyed much success against Matt Garza of the Rays but we look for him to struggle after the long layoff. This will be Garza’s first start since July 10th and a long layoff like this can be tough on any starting pitcher. He may struggle to find his rhythm and the Orioles are traditionally a solid hitting club when at home. Garza’s most recent start was solid but, prior to that, his last eight starts had seen Garza allow 34 earned runs in 42 innings of work! That equates to a 7.29 ERA and we look for his struggles to resume this evening. Garza is 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA in day games this season but he’s just 7-5 with a 4.52 ERA in night games this year. Also, Garza has averaged just 5 innings per start in his last 9 starts and the Rays bullpen has had some letdowns in recent weeks. Speaking of bullpen issues, the Orioles relievers are getting hit at a .277 clip this season and that ranks among the worst in the league. Overall, the O’s pen is in the lower third of the league while the Rays bullpen has been dropping in the rankings recently due to some subpar outings! Play OVER the total in Baltimore as an *8* Regular Play selection.
KELSO
50 Units Chicago White Sox -125
15 Units Milwaukee Brewers -130
10 Units San Francisco Giants +110
3 Units Toronto Blue Jays -110
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Chicago White Sox -125
4 Units Los Angeles Angels Over 9.5
4 Units Oakland Athletics -120
DAVID BANKS
Braves -172
Rockies -111
Blue Jays -116
Diamondbacks +108
A's -118
Dodgers -120
KIKI SPORTS
3 Units Atlanta -158
1 Unit LA Dodgers -114
1 Unit White Sox -125
The Duke's Sports
ChiSox (-125) for 2 Units
The Mariners continue to struggle at home (1-8) and should slide in this spot. The Mariners, which are 6-12 in game 2 of a series following a loss, are a miserable 21-45 as a dog in this price range. We'll look for John Danks to continue his success vs Seattle: 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 3 starts. And as a road favorite in this price range, the 'Sox are 4-0 with Danks. Ichiro, in particular has struggled with Danks (4 for 22). We'll look for Chicago to win its 5th straight in this series.
Bob Balfe
St. Louis Cardinals -175
The Cardinals have been red hot since the All-Star Break and have yet to lose in the second half of the season. St. Louis is crushing the ball right now and square off tonight against a Phillies club that just are not par right now and battling so many injuries. Never go against a hot team after the break until they get cold. Take the Cardinals.
Jeff Benton
20 DIME Milwaukee Brewers
43-15. That’s the Milwaukee Brewers’ record against the Pirates in the last 58 meetings. Going back to late August of 2009, the Brewers are on a 12-3 roll against Pittsburgh, including five wins in six tries at PNC Park this season.
Tonight, Milwaukee hands the ball to Dave Bush, who is 4-0 with a 2.80 ERA in his last seven starts against Pittsburgh, with the Brewers winning all seven games. And Bush has been very good of late, posting a 2.39 ERA in his last six starts. In those six contests, Busch gave up the following earned run totals: 2, 2, 1, 2, 2 and 1.
Granted, the Brewers haven’t cashed in on Bush’s strong outings lately, losing three of his last four starts. But they only managed one run in each of the three defeats. The offense figures to get cranked up today against Pittsburgh rookie right-hander Brad Lincoln, who is facing the Brewers for the second straight start. In his last outing on July 11, Lincoln gave up three runs on seven hits and two walks in six innings, with the Pirates falling 6-5.
And in his start previous to that, Lincoln got rocked at Houston, allowing five runs in five innings of a 6-2 loss. For the season, Lincoln is just 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA in seven starts, with Pittsburgh scoring just two victories.
The Brewers are playing better ball of late (6-2 last eight games), while the young Bucs continue their freefall, losing nine of their last 13 games. And going back to June 6, Pittsburgh is in a 9-27 funk.
Dwayne Bryant
SF Giants