Dominic Fazzini
10 Dimes MARINERS (Washburn) over Blue Jays (Rzepczynski)
MARINERS
NOTE: List only Washburn as Seattle's starting pitcher
Jarrod Washburn (8-6, 2.71 ERA) just keeps improving his trade value with every start.
The Mariners left-hander is 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA over his last seven starts, and he’s allowed just two earned runs over 29 2/3 innings in last four outings. He gave up two hits in seven scoreless innings Thursday in a 2-1 win over Detroit.Blue Jays rookie lefty Marc Rzepczynski (1-2, 2.82) has pitched well in his four major league starts, with quality outings in three of them. His last start was his worst, when he allowed four runs (two earned) on three hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings Thursday in a 5-4 loss to Cleveland.Washburn hasn’t fared too well against Toronto in his career, going 4-7 with a 4.23 ERA in 12 starts, but Seattle is 4-1 in his last five outings vs. the Blue Jays.The Mariners are 21-9 in their last 30 games as a favorite, and the Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. southpaws.Washburn has been rumored to be moved before the trade deadline, and he’s been pitching like a man who is auditioning for a new job. I think he’ll pass his audition again today. Take the Mariners in this one.
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Number 1 Service
Since All Star Break
Record
http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=64979.0
DailyMatchup
7/28/09 7:05PM New York Yankees -135
7/28/09 7:10PM Braves at Marlins Over 8½/+100
7/28/09 8:10PM Minnesota Twins -130
7/28/09 8:15PM St Louis Cardinals -117
7/28/09 9:40PM Phillies at Diamondbacks Over 7½/-120
Jeff Benton
15 Dimes MARINERS (over Blue Jays)
NOTE: List Rzepczynski (Toronto) and Washburn (Seattle) as the starting pitchers. If either does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Mariners
I’m sure there are more than a few ‘cappers out there going the other way with this play because of the way Seattle has performed so far on its homestand (four straight losses to sub-.500 teams by a combined score of 42-10) and because they believe Mariners lefty Jarrod Washburn is way overdue for an implosion. Obviously, I feel quite differently.No question Seattle has been dreadful over the last four games, which includes three blowout losses to the pathetic Indians over the weekend followed my Monday’s 11-4 loss to Toronto when the M’s had red-hot ace Felix Hernandez on the mound. But I’m of the belief that this is nothing more than a mini-slump that all teams go through during the course of the season.After all, prior to beginning this homestand, the Mariners had been on overall runs of 8-3 and 21-11, including going 9-4 at home. Also, this four-game skid is Seattle’s longest since it lost five in a row from May 4-9 (and that five-game slide is the team’s longest negative stretch of the year).Despite the pitching implosion lately, the Mariners continue to lead the American League with a 3.90 team ERA. And a big reason for that is Washburn. The veteran is 8-6 with a 2.71 ERA, including 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in 10 starts at home. Most recently, Washburn is 4-0 with a sick 0.61 ERA, giving up just two runs in 29 2/3 innings with a pair of home wins over Baltimore and Texas and two road victories at Cleveland and Detroit.If you take out a 4-2 loss at the Yankees in which he pitched decently (four runs allowed, including three home runs in the Yankee Stadium bandbox, over seven innings), Washburn has given up seven runs (six earned) in six starts since June 19, pitching a total of 42 2/3 innings, good for a 1.27 ERA. The Mariners are also 5-0 in Washburn’s last five home starts, and even if you throw in a 1-0 home loss to Baltimore on June 1, the lefty has given up seven earned runs in his last six home outings, registering a 1.29 ERA. Four more points about Washburn: 1) He’s gone at least six innings in 11 consecutive starts and 17 of his 19 outings this year; 2) he led the Mariners to three victories over Toronto last year, giving up four runs in 20 innings (1.80 ERA); 3) he’s still backed by strong bullpen (Seattle’s relievers have a 3.88 ERA on the season); and 4) he’s quite possibly making his last start for the Mariners, as Washburn has been the subject of trade rumors (think he doesn’t want to prove his worth to a playoff contender that’s looking to bolster its pitching staff?).Finally, despite Monday’s result, the Blue Jays are still just 8-17 in their last 25 games overall, including 3-8 in their last 11 on the road, and they’ve lost six of their last seven games to left-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Mariners have won 21 of their last 29 games as a favorite and five of their last seven at home against Toronto. In fact, the host has won 14 of the last 20 in this rivalry.This line is waaaaayy to short, guys. Take the value and ride the red-hot Washburn, who will stop Seattle’s losing skid and prevent Toronto from achieving its first three-game winning streak in more than a month.
Craig Davis
25 Dimes ---- REDS (With Arroyo) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over PADRES (With Correia)
Scott Delaney
5-Dime Mets (no pitchers specifically, take whomever is going)
Sometimes off-color distractions can be good thing. So with the strange things taking place involving the Mets, I’ll bank on a fourth-straight win by them tonight, while extending their longest winning streak since a four-game run from May 25-29. I know Jason Marquis is toeing the hill, but the Mets have scored 25 runs while hitting .308 with five home runs during the current streak. And besides, there’s nothing wrong with counting on Mike Pelfrey, who is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts against Colorado, winning his last two while throwing 13-2/3 scoreless innings. Take the home pup tonight at Citi Field, as the value is with the Mets.
5-Dime Reds Run Line (no pitchers specifically, take whomever is going)
Blowout win here boys, as the Padres rank last in the majors with 363 runs and a .230 batting average. They’ve scored three or fewer runs 14 times in their last 18 games and are a major league-worst 4-20 this month alone. And let’s not forget they lost two of three to the worst team in the majors over the weekend. The Friars rank 15th on the senior circuit in ERA, so there is no balance for that lackluster offense. Cincinnati will have no trouble covering the run line in going against Kevin Correia, who comes in after getting tagged for eight runs and nine hits with three walks against Philadelphia.
5-Dime White Sox (WITH Buehrle and Baker) - I know this has ‘trap’ written all over it, but if I’m going to fall for it with one pitcher in one situation – this is it. Mark Buehrle is pitching out of his mind right now, and is pure value as the road dog against Scott Baker. That’s the key here, is that Baker is a favorite in this clash. This is a revenge game for Buehrle, as the Minnesota righty allowed five runs in 6-1/3 innings yet still beat Buehrle on July 12. He lost his other start of the season versus the White Sox and has a rather high 6.88 ERA in 10 career starts against them. Let’s take Buehrle, who has allowed one run in 16-1/3 innings while winning his last two starts
Better Look at
Jeff Benton & Scott Delaney Record ( since All Star Break )
Before you Invest
http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=64954.msg155825#msg155825
igz1 sports
MLB
4* Over 9.5 (-110) Cleveland vs LA Angels
3* Atlanta -120 (Jurrjens)
3* Kansas City +110 (Bannister)
3* Seattle -110 (Washburn)
3* Under 9.5 (-105) Detroit (French) vs Texas (Padilla)
Stu Feiner
YANKEES @ RAYS 7:05 ET
YANKEE PITCHER SABATHIA OWNS TAMPA. HE HAS A LIFETIME MARK OF 7-1 AGAINST THE RAYS. HE WILL GET HIS 11TH WIN OF THE YEAR TONIGHT AGAINST THE TAMPA. HE IS A SOLID 10-6 WITH AN ERA OF 3.67 ON THE YEAR. HIS LAST 20 INNINGS HE IS 2-1 WITH AN ERA OF 3.60. KAZMIR HAS STRUGGLED THIS YEAR. 4-6 WITH AN ERA OF 6.69. HE IS 4-4 AGAINST THE YANKEES AND 1-3 AT HOME THIS YEAR. IN HIS LAST 18 INNINGS HE IS 0-1 WITH AN ERA OF 6.50. HE IS GIVING UP TOO MANY RUNS AND THE YANKEES WILL SHELL HIM TONIGHT.
YANKEES -150 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION
Unlocked - Sports
1) Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Atlanta -112 (3 units)
This will be an exciting divisional matchup featuring two teams who are tied for 2nd place in the NL East. The Marlins have been hot as of late winning 5 of their last 6. The Braves have been just as impressive winning 6 of their last 8. I like the Braves as a small favourite in this one for a few reasons. Atlanta has a significant advantage on the mound in this matchup featuring Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.67) and Ricky Nolasco (10-7, 5.42). Each pitcher has been strong as of late, but Jurrjens has been incredibly dominant going 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in his last three starts. Atlanta’s offense has been on fire as of late, averaging 6.1 runs per game in its last 10 contests and averaging 0.319 versus right handed pitchers during that stretch. The Marlins on the other hand have been averaging 4.2 runs in their last 10 and batting 0.257 versus right handed pitchers down that stretch. Additionally, there are a few trends that heavily favour Atlanta in this one. Florida is 3-12 in its last 15 starts as a home underdog and 0-5 in Nolasco’s last 5 starts versus the Braves.
2) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Pick: Under 10 -120 (4 units)
There is a substantial amount of value playing the UNDER in this matchup. The total at 9.5 or 10 is inflated. Detroit sends rookie lefty Lucas French (1-1, 2.22) to the mound. He has been faring rather well recently with an ERA of only 2.17 in his last 3 starts. This works in our favour since UNDER is 8-2 in Texas’ last 10 home games versus left handed pitchers. Vincente Padilla (7-5, 4.67) will start for the Rangers. Padilla’s numbers haven’t been fantastic but the UNDER trends related to Padilla are heavily one sided. UNDER is 6-0 in Padilla’s last 6 home starts and 7-0 in Padilla’s last 7 overall. Overall, the Tigers and Rangers have been UNDER machines as of late. UNDER is 10-1 in Detroit’s last 11 and 10-0-1 in the Rangers last 11. UNDER is 22-5 in Texas’ last 27 when the total is set at 9 to 10.5.
Sam Clayton
25 Dimes - ROCKIES
Vegas is completely overrating the Mets' three-game winning streak, despite the fact that New York beat three average pitchers that are either barely above .500 or slightly under. You really have you ask yourself if the Mets can keep this streak alive with a depleted lineup sans Delgado, Beltran, Reyes and Sheffield. Jason Marquis (12-6, 3.43) gets the call tonight for Colorado, who tries to avoid losing two straight for only the third time this month. Marquis has actually been better on the highway this year, he's 7-3 with a 3.23 ERA away from Coors Field. He's won three of his last four starts and posts an outstanding 1.16 ERA over that span. And given the lack of power in the Metropolitans' lineup, you have to understand that a sinkerballer of Marquis caliber will see continued success. Marquis goes up against Mike Pelfrey, who continues to fail to live up to expectations in Queens. Pelfrey is 0-2 with a 9.53 ERA his last two starts and his WHIP is a horrid 1.58 over the same duration. This means he's allowing way too many runners on base -- something you just cannot do with the way Colorado drives the ball into the gaps. This low line is an absolute gift as the Rockies will get to Pelfrey early and add another tally to their win column. Play Colorado as your Tuesday top play winner.
JACK JONES
15* on Tigers/Rangers UNDER 9.5
These two teams simply aren't scoring runs like you would expect them to. The Tigers have been terrible on offense of late, scoring just 2.6 runs per game and hitting only .228 as a team over the past week. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been winning, but haven't been hitting that well, scoring 4.3 runs per game and batting .251 as a team. Luke Scott starts for the Tigers and has been very effective in his 4 starts so far. He's just 1-1, but has a 2.16 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Rangers' starter, Vicente Padilla's numbers are very average at a 4.67 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the year, but the under is 11-5 in his 16 starts for Texas this season. After last night's under hit, the under in Tigers' games improved to 61-36 on the year, and the under in Rangers' games moved to 61-33 on the year. We will keep sticking with the under until some major line adjustments are made.
Jake Timlin
400♦ Philadelphia Phillies
List both Hamels & Haren as starting pitchers or this play is void
No passing up on the Phillies plus money tonight. Not when the Phillies are absolutely red hot having won 16 of their last 18 games and still an MLB best 30-15 on the road this year. Now keeping the Phillies rolling will be Hamels who is pitching better as of late going 2-0 in his last 4 starts and who is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in two starts against Arizona.Countering for the Diamondbacks will be Dan Haren who despite his amazing ERA he is just 5-4 at home this year due to an Arizona offense that is 27th in the league in hitting. Simple, if old man Moyer can shut down the Diamondbacks so too will Hamels who unlike Haren will enjoy an explosive offense behind him.
All Philadelphia!
Billy Coleman's
4.5 Unit Play
4.5 *Houston
3* Atlanta
3* Boston -1'
TONY BRUNO WINS
50x TWINS
Scott Spreitzer
4* Yankees
3* Boston-1'
3* Over White Sox
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
7/28/09- Tuesday
72-45 Past 30 Days
Hitting 56% On The Season
one play from their tuesday card
7*seattle-110