Craig Davis
100 Dimes TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over ROYALS (with Chen)
Well here it is... I've been talking about it for at least a week and I can't tell you how excited about my biggest baseball play of the entire season. The Detroit Tigers, behind Justin Verlander, will absolutely blast Bruce Chen and the Kansas City Royals and this game won't even be close. I'm honestly not sure I will see another play this season I like as well as I like this one tonight.
The Detroit Tigers blew a 2-1 lead last night and a fantastic outing from Armando Gallaraga, dropping a 4-3 decision to this same Kansas City team. So, you can bet the Tigers are out for blood tonight, and they're going to get it against Bruce Chen... a lefty who didn't throw a single pitch in 2008 and has only started two games thus far in 2009. Not only do the Tigers hit lefties well, they'll absolutely blister Chen's 89 mph fastball. Yeah, I said 89 miles per hour.
Since having reconstructive elbow surgery last season, Chen's fastball has lost some velocity and now has to rely on his off-speed stuff, including a breaking ball that he hasn't quite mastered. In his only other road start this year, Chen allowed 7 hits and 4 ERs in 6 1/3 innings, dropping a 6-2 decision at Pittsburgh. His other start, a July 2nd home start vs. Chicago, Chen was better (2 ER in 6 innings), but still managed to lose another game, 4-1, to the White Sox. If you're doing the math at home, the Royals have given him exactly three runs of run support in two games against Mark Beuhrle and Paul Maholm. So you tell me... how are the Royals going to provide him any more than a couple of runs tonight against a flame-throwing right-hander who has owned the Royals in his career??
The answer is simple... they're not. Kansas City has averaged just 3.2 runs per game in 7 meetings with the Tigers so far this season and they have yet to face the likes of Justin Verlander... the ace of the staff. Verlander only faced the Royals twice last season (both times on the road) and has yet to see them this year in seven meetings, but that doesn't take away the fact that he has absolutely owned this team in his career. Check out these numbers... 12 career starts, 8 wins and one loss, 2.21 ERA in 77.1 innings pitched, a WHIP barely above 1.00, and an opponents' batting average against of just .218. His last outing vs. Kansas City, last year in Missouri, was another gem... lasting 7 innings, shutting out the Royals and allowing just five hits in an eventual 4-3 win.
Let's take it a step further... Justin Verlander is as good as any pitcher in Major League Baseball when pitching at home. When you think of Verlander, you probably think about what he's done in three of his last four starts (4 ERs in Oakland, 3 ERs in Houston, and 5 ERs in St. Louis)... but you fail to realize that those three games were on the road, and mixed in was a very solid home outing vs. Milwaukee... a 3-2 win over Yovani Gallardo and the Brewers.
Let's just take a quick peek at what he's been able to accomplish when pitching at Comerica: 6 starts, 4 wins, no losses, 40.1 innings pitched, 23 hits, 16 walks (0.96 WHIP), 5 ERs (1.11 ERA) and 51 strikeouts (more than one per inning). Folks, those numbers don't happen all that often and when you see a situation present itself like this one tonight, you have to jump all over it. Detroit has won eight of their last nine at home, are 9-3 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. Kansas City, 18-3 in Verlander's last 21 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, and are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Royals, meanwhile, are 1-6 in their last seven in Game 2 of a series, 6-17 in their last 23 road games, and 4-12 in their last 16 as a road dog.
Vegas isn't stupid... that's why they have Detroit at -230 at the time of this writing. That number is a bit hefty for me to lay, so that's why I'm pounding the run line tonight... because I'm not worried about Detroit winning this game by one, two or even three runs. I'm calling at least a four-run Tigers victory tonight --- as they combine the masterful pitching of Verlander with the "we're overdue" offense the Tigers are going to put on display at home. I'm calling for at least a 6-2 win for the boys from Motown, because you know the Tigers dreadful bullpen is due to allow a few runs (as they always seem to do). Top play of the day and of the season (so far) on the Detroit Tigers, on the run line, over Kansas City.
Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - CHICAGO CUBS (Dempster over Vazquez)
It sure looked like the Braves had something going on after sweeping the Phillies at Turner Field just before the 4th of July, but losing their last pair in Washington, and opening last night with an anemic 4-2 loss tells me that this Atlanta team just isn't that good.The Cubs are starting to look like the team that was predicted to be the tops in the NL Central, as they have now won 5 of their last 6, and they have thoroughly dominated the Braves of late, winning 8 of the last 10 showdowns.
Chicago is on an 8-1 run at home, and starter Ryan Dempster is a nice 4-1 in his home starts this season to boot.
Atlanta is just 2-6 in Javier Vazquez' last 8 starts, and while the rigthy continues to whiff batters, his teammates continue to come up bust at the plate when he takes the mound.
The Cubs are going places, the Braves are not!
Take Chicago as my 30 Dime Raise the Bar NL Game of the Year # 2 in a Row
Erin Rynning
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Playmaker Twins Under
Chris James Sports
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Selection: 2* Indians/White Sox Over 9
Matt Fargo
7* WNBA NON-CONFERENCE GOW *82% ANGLE*
Sacramento
William E. Stockton
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
20* Phillies over 8.5 (100 Dime BIG TICKET)
20* Yankees -135 (100 Dime BIG TICKET)
10* Texas over 9.5
10* Giants under 8
10* St Louis under 8
10* Pittsburgh +115
Street Rosenthal
*300 Minnesota Twins +120
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
*200 New York Mets +127
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I look for the Mets to get a win tonight vs the Dodgers. Here are several nice trends that say the Mets get the job done. First, we have the Dodgers as 6-18 SU since 2006 after a one run win and it is the first game of a series. Next we find the Dodgers are 13-22 SU since 2004 after an extra innings win. And Finally, I have trends totaling 37-9 SU in favor of a Mets Win. Take the Home Dogs for a nice win tonight.
*200 Houston Astros -115
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I look for the Astros take take another game for the Pirates tonight. Here are several reasons why. First, we have the Pirates starter Paul Maholm as 2-11 SU since 2005 in a away game and the line is less than 125. Next, I have the Pirates as 3-16 SU since 2006 when they are off two losses in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series. Finally, we have the Astros as 32-9 SU since 2004 as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games. Take the Astros for another win tonight.
C-Stars Sports
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1000 Units Top Play Toronto +180
1000 Units Top Play San Francisco over Florida
1000 Units Top Play SD/ARZ UNDER the total
KBHoops
5* Oakland +1.5 +110 **POD**
5* Oakland +230
5* Cincinnati +127
5* Kansas City +185
5* Pittsburgh +107
5* Washington +124
Scott Rickenbach’s
7:10:00 PM OVER 9 RUNS,BOSTON RED SOX (Beckett)
-vs- Oakland Athletics (Eveland)
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB Regular Play: OVER the total in Boston vs Oakland @ 7:10 PM ET: Beckett vs Eveland – After getting shutout yesterday, you can fully expect the Red Sox offense to bounce back in a big way tonight. Boston is 10-4 to the over the last three seasons when coming off of a shutout. Also, as a home favorite of -225 to -250, the Red Sox are 8-4 to the over the last three seasons. We’ll gladly put this combined 18-8 (69%) ATS mark to work for us here as we love this pitching match-up to help us in a big way here. Josh Beckett gets the start for the Red Sox and Dana Eveland gets the start for the Athletics. Note that Eveland was sent to the minors in early May after he started the season with a 7.40 ERA after his first six outings. The A’s southpaw is finally coming back up to the big club but it’s certainly not an ideal situation for him. Eveland just threw 90 pitches in a minor league start on Friday so this start is being made on short rest. Also, Eveland has an 18.90 ERA in his two career starts against the Red Sox. Both of these outings have come at Fenway Park and, needless to say, this is about the worst possible situation for Eveland. The A’s hurler has to make a start on short rest and he has to make it in Boston where he’s been pummeled in his career and where the Red Sox are amped up to bounce back from a rare home shutout. The reason we like the over here is two fold. First off, you’ll never find us laying a huge price like the Red Sox are favored by here. Additionally, there is reason to believe that the A’s get their fair share of runs here too. Red Sox starter Beckett was not at his best in his most recent start. He struggled through the first four innings of his start and he ended up giving up five runs in seven innings. Beckett is just 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against the A’s. Oakland’s current roster includes five guys who have accounted for at least one homer against Beckett and all five were in the A’s lineup last night. The five guys are Orlando Cabrera, Mark Ellis, Jason Giambi, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Sweeney. They have six homers in 91 combined at-bats against Beckett. That’s decent power and that’s also a good amount of experience. That helps in a match-up like this and they’ve combined for 18 RBIs in these 91 at-bats. Allowing five earned runs in his start at Baltimore last week marked the second time in four starts that Beckett has allowed at least five earned runs. Also, in that series with the Orioles, the Red Sox bullpen suffered some tough times and the A’s bullpen has struggled on the road where Oakland has a 4.78 team ERA. The A’s offense has scored at least five runs in eight of their last 16 games and their confidence remains high after getting to pound John Smoltz in yesterday’s game. That confidence is a booster as today they face Beckett. This one flies over as a result because we have no doubt the Red Sox should pound Eveland. Play OVER the total in Boston as a regular selection.
7/7/2009
8:10:00 PM OVER 9 RUNS,CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Buehrle)
-vs- Cleveland Indians(Sowers)
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB Top Play: OVER the total in Chicago-AL vs Cleveland @ 8:10 PM ET: Buehrle vs Sowers – The Indians are 8-1 to the over as a road dog of +125 to +150 this season. Cleveland is 7-1 to the over when playing with a day off. The Indians are 12-5 to the over against left-handed starters. The White Sox are 20-8 to the over as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Adding all this up we have a combined 47-15 (76%) ATS mark supporting our play on the over here. Of course, there is a lot more support for this play than just ATS stats! Let’s get to work! Mark Buehrle gets the start for the White Sox here and he’s 1-3 with a 6.28 ERA in his last seven starts against the Indians. Also, even though Buerhle allowed just one earned run in 8.1 innings against the Royals in his last start, he was also helped by three double plays including two that came through the air. As you can see from the above numbers, Buehrle is unlikely to enjoy the same success against the Indians. Also, Buehrle has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 20 innings at home. That works to a 5.40 ERA. Additionally, the White Sox southpaw had allowed 20 hits in his last 14 innings in his two home starts prior to this three-start stretch where he allowed 12 earned runs. In other words, Buehrle is offering us big line value here for a play on the over as he’s in a spot where success should not be expected. The Indians have gone over the total in to the tune of 25-13 in road games this season and they will hit Buehrle hard – just as they’ve done in their last seven chances against him. Speaking of a pitcher who should struggle, there is little hope for Jeremy Sowers in this match-up. The Indians southpaw is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in six starts against the White Sox. Also, Sowers has already faced the White Sox three times this season and he’s been roughed up. Giving the ChiSox their fourth look at him already this season is certainly not good news for Sowers. Note that the Indians southpaw is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his three road starts this season and he’s walked nine in just 15 innings. The White Sox have averaged 5.65 runs per game in their last twenty games and their bats will bounce back at home after losing the last two games of their series at Kansas City over the weekend. In terms of bullpen rankings, the Indians ERA ranks them 27th while the White Sox BAA ranks them 24th. In other words, both pens are certainly hittable and, even with yesterday’s off day, they could be asked to do too much here because we expect an early exit for both starters! Play OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game as a Top Play selection
Matt Fargo
7* WNBA NON-CONFERENCE GOW *82% ANGLE*
Sacramento
Added
Matt Fargo’s
**7** MLB POWER PLAY BLOWOUIT *78% ANGLE*
NY Mets
Deano
Betting Session: Follow Units posted (*Varies*)
**********************************
Today's Premium Pick: NYY/MIN OVER 8.5
Today's Odds: -105
Play: 1 Unit(s)
Today's Premium Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Today's Odds: -125
Play: 1 Unit(s)
**********************************
Speculating Sports
Cincinnati at Philadelphia 7:05pm EST
Selection: PHILADELPHIA -135
Profile: Philadelphia has a great starting pitching match-up tonight with J.A. Happ going up against Aaron Harang. Happ has been pitching well lately, and Cincinnati's hitters don't have much experience against him. Meanwhile, Harang has struggled on the road this season, showing a very strong home/road dichotomy. The Phillies also had an excellent hitting performance last night, pounding out 22 runs. I look for Philadelphia to continue that hot play in tonight's game.
2 UNIT SELECTION
LA Dodgers at NY Mets 7:10pm EST
Selection: LA DODGERS -135
Profile: The Mets are really banged up and have struggled mightily without their three best hitters. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, and I look for their line-up to absolutely crush the Mets tonight. They also have Manny Ramirez back, which is a huge boost to not only the runs scored, but also to the hitters around Ramirez. Clayton Kershaw is a dominating lefty that is in good form as well. This game is a great chance to get two teams in vastly different directions at a good price.
2 UNIT SELECTION
Sports Insight
Underdogs
Reds +132
Cards +134
THE PREZ
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Rangers at Angels
Pick: Over 9.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
As a team, the Rangers hit a monstrous .349 against Angels starter John Lackey; their team OPS ranks as an unheard of .969 with an extended sample. Five regulars (Hank Blalock, Marlon Byrd, Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young) hit better than .300 and all five have hit multiple home runs off him. Lackey's career ERA against Texas is 5.79 in 28 starts. The Rangers' Dustin Nippert, who will make his first start of the season, holds a career 6.42 ERA and a 6.92 ERA vs. the Halos.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Lackey is coming off two quality starts, but both came against offenses that sport a lowly OPS (Arizona .681 and Baltimore .694 L/7 games). Lackey has blown up in four of his eight starts allowing four more earned runs and 10 hits. Lackey has pitched at home only twice allowing a combined 19 hits and 8 runs in 14 innings. Despite his last two starts, something isn't right with the presumed ace. He has been more than hittable since coming off the DL and the Rangers have a bone to pick with the former 19-game winner. Lackey faced the Rangers on May 16 in Arlington, his first start off the DL, and a contest where he was tossed after two pitches. The first was behind the body of second baseman Ian Kinsler, while the second hit Kinsler's left side.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Nippert, sidelined since the beginning of the season with a strained muscle in the back of his right shoulder, is coming off the disabled list to make his first start of the season. The right-hander had a 2.25 ERA in five games (four starts) during his rehab assignment, but struggled with his command in all four outings. One of Nippert’s strengths at the minor league level was his ability to keep the ball in the park as he allowed only 18 homers in 451 2/3 innings, which translates to one every 25 innings. He hasn’t been able to translate that success to the major league level. In 2008 the right-hander allowed five long balls in 32 innings, 2007 saw him give up five in 45 frames and in 2006 he allowed five in 10 innings of work.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Eric Cooper is scheduled to call balls and strikes. His tiny K-zone won't help either pitcher and force both starters to challenge hitters in the strikezone. The last three games in which Cooper graded Lackey, two in his 19-win season, all three went OVER the total. The OVER is 9-2 in Cooper's last 11 games behind home plate.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The OVER is 6-2 in Lackey's last eight home starts with the Vegas total set at 9.0-10.5.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
TOP TOTAL Play on the OVER