Dwayne Bryant
SF Giants -130
Big Al
Underdog GOM - Reds
Scott Spreitzer
3* Angels
Big Daddy
12* Yankees -1.5
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Braves
3 Units Mets
Scott Rickenbach
8* NYY / Baltimore Over
The Yankees got their sticks going in a big way in their weekend series with the Indians. New York took three of the four games with Cleveland and the Yankees hit .387 in the series and averaged 9 runs per game. Don’t look for them to slow down now…especially against Brian Matusz of the Orioles. Yes, we are well aware of the fact that Derek Jeter suffered a minor injury in yesterday’s game and, as of early this morning, his status is uncertain. However, consider just how hot this entire Yankees lineup has been and note also that Matusz has struggled against lesser known Yankees like Francisco Cervelli and Marcus Thames. Each of those guys is 4 for 6 against Matusz this season. Baltimore is 0-7 in the last seven starts that Matusz has made and the southpaw is 0-5 with a 6.50 ERA in those seven games. Also, Baltimore’s bullpen is 6-12 this season with a 4.43 ERA and the Orioles relievers have been hit at a .283 clip. Without a doubt, the O’s pitching staff will have their hands full tonight.
The only good news for Baltimore fans is that the Yankees pitching situation is also suspect at best. Note that the Yankees bullpen has a 4.56 ERA so far this season and that ranks them in the bottom third of the majors. Also, that struggling bullpen could certainly be an issue tonight because it’s a struggling Javier Vazquez that takes the mound for the Yankees. Note that the right-hander is 3-5 with a 6.86 ERA so far this season. Also, although Vazquez is 6-2 in his career outings against the Orioles, note that he’s compiled a 4.80 ERA in his dozen career starts versus Baltimore. The O’s have guys like Miguel Tejada, Ty Wigginton, and Cesar Izturis who have all pounded Vazquez at a .348 clip or better in their careers! Though those guys are slumping right now, and though the Orioles as a team struggled in their weekend series with the Blue Jays, look for the Yankees Vazquez to be the right remedy for this Orioles lineup to get turned back around again. Though the O’s have stayed under the total in many of their recent games, the Yankees are 14-4 to the over in divisional games this season. Also, the Yankees are 13-3 (or 12-3-1) to the over in their last 16 games. We ride that trend again on Tuesday. Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as an *8* Regular Play selection.
10* Toronto / Tampa Bay Over
We lost with this play yesterday and the top play loss put a damper on a day when our other two MLB plays, also overs, averaged 17 runs per game and were solid wins. We respond by coming right back with this play on Tuesday night. There were four double plays in yesterday’s game plus a runner was picked off first base. Additionally, there was a runner thrown out at the plate on a fielders choice. The point is that, with the teams totaling 17 hits and 5 walks, we certainly should have seen much more scoring than we did. That is helping to give us line value with tonight’s game. We fully realize that Jeff Niemann has been rock solid for the Rays this season. However, he’s facing the Blue Jays for the second time this season and they hit two homers against him in the first meeting. The Blue Jays aerial assault has been amazing this season as they are the home run leaders by a big margin so far this season. Also, the Jays have enjoyed some success against Niemann in Toronto. At the Rogers Centre, the righthander has compiled a 4.87 ERA in three career starts. He’s a hard thrower and that often does not match up well with a home run hitting team. When the powerful Jays connect on a Niemann fastball, they are going to give it a ride at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.
The big concern for the Blue Jays tonight is not how their hitters will fare but rather it’s their own pitching situation. They’ve been spoiled recently by getting some solid starts from their rotation but Brian Tallet takes the mound for Toronto tonight. He’s trying to come back from an injury and the bad news is that he got clobbered in his rehab starts. So now Tallet is already coming back to the MLB level and things certainly did not go well for him in Toronto earlier this season. In his three starts so far this season Tallet has compiled a 6.11 ERA. Facing the Rays is unlikely to help matters for the Blue Jays southpaw. He’s compiled a 6.03 ERA in 17 career games against Tampa Bay and the Rays have pounded him at a .333 clip. This is simply not a good match-up for Tallet and his rehab outings would indicate he could be getting rushed back here. Note that the Blue Jays have scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games and the Rays are 5-2 to the over this season when they are on the road and the posted total on their game is 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, Tampa Bay is 9-6 to the over when facing a team with a winning record and Toronto is 8-6 to the over when facing a team with a winning record this season. This includes yesterdays under between the teams and we expect things to return to “normal” tonight. Don’t look for so many wasted opportunities in this one as the Blue Jays power surge at home continues while their own pitching takes a major step back with Tallet on the mound and, keep in mind, the Jays pen has only been mediocre this season. Look for the Blue Jays to go to 20-13 to the over in night games with a slugfest erupting at the Rogers Centre tonight. Play OVER the total in Toronto as a *10* Top Play selection.
Nelly
1* San Diego Padres +105
Mike Pelfrey owns a glowing 7-1 record with a 2.54 ERA but he has been much less dominant than the numbers indicate. Pelfrey allowed a grand total of just two runs in his first five appearances of the season and he has been fairly average since with an ERA of 3.82. Seven of his ten starts have come at home where he and the Mets have excellent numbers but it has been a different story on the road as he has allowed 15 hits and eight runs in his last two road outings for a 6.17 ERA. Walks have also been a concern for Pelfrey as his strikeout-to-walk ratio is just 1.69, very low for a starter with his record. The Mets have played a home heavy early season schedule and so far New York is just 7-17 in road games and 3-7 in road games west of the eastern time zone. New York's bullpen needed four pitchers last night and while the season relief pitching numbers look decent, the Mets have a 7.39 bullpen ERA in the last ten games. San Diego has featured one of the top bullpens in baseball this season with a 2.91 ERA and the Padres continue to profit. San Diego is 31-20 on the season including 17-11 at home and San Diego is 9-1 in the last ten meetings between these teams at home. The Padres are 7-2 in the last nine games overall with solid production numbers and in that nine game span San Diego pitching has allowed just 26 runs. Wade LeBlanc had a very rough interleague outing two weeks ago but he has dominant numbers against NL lineups. LeBlanc had allowed two or fewer runs in six of his seven NL starts and in home games his season ERA is 2.40. LeBlanc owns a 2-3 record but the Padres are 5-3 in his starts. San Diego is also 13-4 in game 2 of series this season including going 7-3 after winning the first game as they did last night. Still priced as an underdog San Diego is worth a look again in tonight's match-up with the road weary Mets, a team batting .234 away from home.
ASA
3* Washington +110
Houston has been one of the worst teams in baseball this season with a 17-34 overall record including just a 9-19 mark in home games. The Astros are 2-7 in the last nine games and the pitching staff is in rough order after the lone reliable starter Roy Oswalt was thrown out early in yesterday’s game. Washington rolled to a 14-4 win as Houston had to use up five relievers just to finish the game. In the last ten games Houston’s bullpen owns an 8.65 ERA and for the year the Astros have struggled in the relief innings with a 4.85 season ERA for the bullpen.
Washington is 26-26 and there is a bit of a buzz around this team with the surprisingly strong start and the young talent that is coming up to the team including Stephen Strasburg who is scheduled to debut next week. The recent history for the Nationals is poor in every category based on the last few seasons but this year Washington has been incredibly profitable and at 12-16 this has been a respectable road team as well. Washington’s road record could further improve as they have already had to make two west coast trips, struggling in the first trip but going 3-4 so far on this trip. Facing a Houston team that has lost 50 of its last 71 games should also help the team’s chances tonight.
Craig Stammen is just 1-2 on the season but he has kept the Nationals in most of his starts. If you take away two early season starts against the Phillies Stammen has very solid numbers and he has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his last eight outings. In San Francisco last week Stammen allowed just five hits and two earned runs and he has walked just 13 batters in nearly 55 innings of work. Washington’s bullpen also has a very solid 3.72 ERA, while picking up twelve wins and 18 saves. Opponents are hitting just .245 against Nationals relievers compared to .285 against Houston relievers.
While Brett Myers is a more established veteran pitcher than Stammen is, he has not pitched significantly better. Myers has a low 3.22 ERA but his WHIP is actually higher at 1.43 meaning that Myers likely has an artificially low ERA at this point. In home starts Myers is 2-0 but his WHIP climbs to 1.58. Myers has walked at least three batters in five of his last six starts and in four of his last ten starts he has allowed at least four runs. In his home starts Myers has allowed opposing batters to hit .303 and his numbers are likely to go up significantly once opponents start taking advantage of the many opportunities he is allowing. Washington has been the far more reliable team in this match-up and Myers and the Astros look like false favorites tonight as there have been few positive signs coming from Houston all season.
The Gold Sheet
Twins at Mariners
Pick: Twins +101
It doesn't matter who is on the mound, we will gladly take our chances any night of the week with the Twins listed as basically a pick'em against the Mariners. So it is tonight at Safeco Field, where we get the bonus of Minnesota's Nick Blackburn looking to record his sixth straight win after a stellar May when he won all five of his starts and posted a stellar 2.65 ERA. Play Twins
The Duke's Sports
Atlanta (-122) for 2.5 Units
Value is with the Braves knowing that Tim Hudson is 0-5 with a 4.01 ERA in 9 starts vs Philadelphia at the same time, he has gotten just 1.7 runs per game of support vs them. And Cole Hamels has an 8-2 record in 13 starts vs Atlanta. Hudson, however, is catching the Phillies in a bad slump. Philadelphia is averaging 1.5 rpg over their last 10 on a .199 BA. And Hudson sports a strong 1.35 ERA over his last 3 outings. On the other hand, the Braves have hit lefties well recently (.301 BA last 10) and should, finally, give Hudson some run support in this series against Hamels, who has shown vulnerability on the road. With the Braves at 12-5 in game 2 of a series, we'll jump on the Braves here.
Rocketman
5* Giants
4* Dodgers
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Braves
3 Units Mets
Hey Blade,
Was there 2 plays for Marc Lawrence today. I know the Mets were 1 but reading his site it just reads he "shares his MLB Fan Appreciation Play of the Week." Was just curious about the Braves being a comp play? Thanks and thanks for all the hard work.
Sportbook Guru
4 Units Cubs -145
4 Units Colorado +110
4 Units Arizona +110
4 Units San Diego +110
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Braves
3 Units Mets
Hey Blade,
Was there 2 plays for Marc Lawrence today. I know the Mets were 1 but reading his site it just reads he "shares his MLB Fan Appreciation Play of the Week." Was just curious about the Braves being a comp play? Thanks and thanks for all the hard work.
A's is his free play today
Person who posted them posts his plays daily so have to think they are correct.
Chuck O'Brien
20 DIME: N.Y. METS
10 DIME: CINCINNATI REDS