Cajun Sports
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets
PickDetroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers will send ace Justin Verlander to the bump with his 8-4 record and ERA of 3.58 on the season. He has won his last three starts since losing back-to-back outings at the end of last month. Justin has given up just seven runs on sixteen hits during that span. He is 4-2 on the highway with an ERA of 4.27. The Mets will counter with Joe Niese who is 4-2 on the year with a 3.64 ERA including 2-1 at home with an ERA of 2.65 in those contests. A check of the database reveals several key team angles and league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s game. The League is 54-23 as a road favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a profit of $2385. The League is 42-19 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a profit of $1498. The Tigers are 24-9 after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a profit of $1345. The League is 72-128 as a dog after being shutout for a profit of $2341 when playing against them. With the combination of solid fundamental and technical support for the visitor we will back them here as they grab the first game of this series on Tuesday night in New York.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 3* Detroit Tigers 4 New York Mets 2
Wunderdog
Reds vs. Athletics
Pick: Under 7.5
Bronson Arroyo is a good pitcher that has some bad numbers this season, but has shown signs of getting back on track over his last three starts. The A's have a lot of security in the fact that Dallas Braden will more often than not will pitch a low-run, low-hit game. Braden, in his last 45 starts, has seen the UNDER prevail to a mark of 30-15. Couple that with his likely strong effort with a punchless offense, and the UNDER prevails in two of every three games Braden pitches. Toss in Bronson Arroyo, who has seen the UNDER prevail to a 17-8-4 mark over his last 29 starts, and the ingredients are in place for a low-scoring game. I'll play the UNDER in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Dodgers vs. LAA Angels
Pick: Over 8
This game fits a solid system that has cashed 15 of the last 16 times. What we want to do is play the over for road favorites like the Dodgers off a road dog loss where trhey scored 4 or less runs and had 5 or more men left on base vs an opponent like the Angels coming off a road game where they had 10 or more hits. These games average a shade over 12 runs per game. Now for some teams angles we note the Dodgers have flown over the total in 5 of 7 games when the posted total is 8 to 8.5 and they average 5 runs per game on the road this year. The Angels have gone over 4 of 5 times off a day off, 4 of 5 times as a home dog in this range and 9 of 12 times in interleague play. The Angels are also averaging 5.7 runs per game in interleague play. This season in the series 2 of the 3 games have gone over the total. The Dodgers should have no problem here against Angels starter E. Santana. Santana has an elevated 5.12 home era and has a 6.19 era over his past 3 starts. Look for this game to go over the posted total.
Jimmy Boyd
4* Cardinals/Blue Jays Under 7.5
I'll take the Under in this matchup of quality starters tonight. Garcia toes the rubber for St. Louis, and he has been an automatic Unders bet. The Cards have played to the Under in 12 of his 13 starts this season, including all 7 on the road. Cecil has been a solid Unders play as well. The Jays have played to the Under in 7 of his 11 starts, including 3 of 4 at home. Another thing that can't be overlooked is that Toronto is only hitting .199 and scoring just 2.9 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. The Under is also 33-16-3 in the Cardinals last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter and 6-2-1 in their last 9 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Under.
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units NY Mets Under 7.5
4 Units Chicago White Sox +105
4 Units LA Dodgers -130
CHRIS JORDAN
300♦ Padres
300♦ Rangers -1.5
300♦ Giants/Astros Under
BIG AL
INTERLEAGUE OVER/UNDER ANNIHILATOR!
Tigers/Mets Under 7.5
Do you think runs could be hard to come by tonight? Two hot starters go at it in the most pitcher-friendly park in the Majors, as Detroit and righthander Justin Verlander will face the Mets and young southpaw Jonathon Niese. Verlander was on his game in his last start, striking out a season-high 11 batters (with no walks) in eight strong innings against the Nats. Niese had a great start to the season with a 3.10 ERA in the month of April but then he struggled mightily in May as he went 0-1 in three starts and saw his ERA rise all the way to 4.79. He's back on track in June, having won all three of his starts for the month while lowering his ERA to 3.64 and he is now 2-1 with a dynamite 2.65 ERA in six starts at Citi Field. This is potentially one of the best match-ups in inter-league play as amazingly both of these teams are 8-2 in their last 10 games, and 9-3 against the opposite league heading into this series. Further, the under is 8-1 in the Mets last nine home games. Take the 'under
The Duke's Sports
St. Louis (-105) for 2 Units
Few teams have shown the resiliency the Card's have over the years; more specifically, in game 1 of a series off a loss the they're a sizzling 10-1. And game 1 of a series has been very good to the Cardinals at 39-12; furthermore, Jaime Garcia, who has been outstanding in the rotation this year with a 1.59 ERA, is 4-1 in team starts for game 1 of a series. Toronto, batting a meager .196 at home vs lefties, is 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games vs lefty starters. The Cardinals are 4-1 on the interleague road and should deliver here.
Dave Cokin
Matchup: San Francisco at Houston
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LINCECUM, T vs. (R) OSWALT, R
Play: San Francisco (ML -140)
Whatever worries may have existed about Tim Lincecum's shoulder after getting hit with a batted ball last start are no longer an issue. Lincecum is all systems go, and he's in a great spot tonight against a team he has completely dominated. The Astros will counter with their ace, Roy Oswalt. But Oswalt has never had much success against the Giants, and the 'Stros never seem to score many when Oswalt goes. The Giants are substantial road chalk tonight, but I believe it's totally justified and I will lay the price with Lincecum.
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Matchup: Boston at Colorado
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) LESTER, J vs. (R) CHACIN, J
Play: Boston (ML -140)
The Red Sox are on fire, and I like their chances of staying in that mode as they open a series at Coors against the shorthanded Rockies. Colorado has some troubles right now. Troy Tulowitzki is out with the broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez is playing but is definitely not 100%. The bullpen is pretty much of a mess right now. Whether or not we'll see a patented second half Rockies run is up for debate. But for the present, this is a terrific Rockies team when Ubaldo Jimenez or surging Jason Hammel pitches. But when they get to the back of the rotation and rookie Jhoulys Chacin, the Rox are not all that good. Boston has awesome southpaw Jon Lester on the hill, and he's in superior form right now. I'm also looking for the Boston hitters, noted for their patient approach, to have several scoring opportunities with Chacin on the mound, as his control has been very shaky. You'll have to lay a pretty good number here, but the Red Sox look like winners to me tonight.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Texas (-215) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has lost 24 of the last 30 games vs. AL West Division Opponents and they have also lost 15 of the last 16 road games coming off an UNDER the total. Ross Ohlendorf has lost 14 of the last 19 road games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 0-5 this season with an ERA of 5.22.
50* Play San Francisco (-145) over Houston
Houston has lost 8 of the last 9 games and they have also lost 6 consecutive games vs. San Francisco this season. Houston has lost 11 of the last 13 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and they have also lost 12 of the last 14 home games as an underdog of +125 or higher.
MIKE LINEBACK
4* Indians/Phillies Over 10
4* Rays
4* Rangers RL
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
DIAMOND CLUB BASEBALL TOTAL POUNDER
Florida and Baltimore OVER 8.5
DIAMOND CLUB BASEBALL GRAND SLAM BOMB
San Francisco w/Lincecum -135
Larry Ness
8* Min Twins -125
The Twins lost two of three to Atlanta (hottest team in MLB) when interleague play resumed but then took two of three vs Colorado and two of three at Philly. The Twins are 139-101 all-time in IL play, just a half-game behind the Yankees (140-101) for the best record. The team's two wins in Philly over the weekend give them an impressive 28 victories in their last 40 interleague contests away from home. Milwaukee enters this series 11-19 at home (only Pittsburgh is worse at 11-21), having lost more money (minus-$1,155) than any team in MLB in its ho‚me park. Scott Baker gets the start for Minnesota and Chris Narveson for Milwaukee. The Twins keep waiting for Baker to become their ace but it just hasn't happened . He was 11-4 (3.45 ERA) in 2008 and 15-9 (4.36 ERA) in 2009 but has gone a disappointing 6-5 (4.41 ERA) in 2010. The team has won three of his last four outings though, including his 2-1 win over the Rockies in his last start (7 IP / 2 hits / 0 runs / 12 Ks!). It should also be noted that while the Twins are just 7-7 in all of his starts this season, they are 6-1 when he's a favorite of less than minus-$1.50! Also, Baker is 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last seven interleague starts, striking out 44 in 46.2 innings. Chris Narveson opened the season in the bullpen (nine appearances) but took the place of the struggling Jeff Suppan in the rotation (now gone to StL) on April 28. He's made 10 starts (team is 4-6) and he's 5-4 with a 5.79 ERA (76 hits allowed in 65.1 IP) in all appearances this season. The Brewers have lost four of his last five starts, with Narveson allowing 18 ERs over 20 innings (8.10 ERA) during those four losses. Take the Twins.
8* Atl Braves -115
The White Sox have won 10 of their last 11 games (White Sox starters are 9-1 with a 2.01 ERA in that stretch) and at 10-2, are tied with the Red Sox for the best IL record in 2010. However, the White Sox are just 15-18 at home this season. Chicago dismisses any talk that its recent record has been attained by playing some weak competition contending that wins are wins. The White Sox are right bu‚t EIGHT of the team's last 10 wins have come over the 31-18 Cubs (losers of 12 of their last 19), the 32-29 Nationals (losers of eight of 10) and the NL-worst 25-44 Pirates (just plain losers!). Meanwhile, the Braves come in 24-8 since May 18, tied with the Red Sox for MLB's best record in that stretch (have won 19 of their last 25, overall). Atlanta owns the NL's best record (42-28), going 24-7 at home. However, after losing 11 of 13 away from home from April 23-May 9 (lost eight straight at one time), the Braves have rebounded to go 13-7 over their last 20 road games. John Danks goes for Chicago and like in the past two seasons, his record falls short of what it should be. He went 12-8 (3.32 ERA) in 2008, then 13-11 (3.73 ERA) in 2009. His ERA is 3.18 this season but he's just 6-5. His home ERA is 2.20 in seven starts but the team is just 3-4. Danks will face Tommy Hanson, off a terrific rookie season in 2009 (11-4 with a 2.89 ERA). Hanson is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 2010, as the Braves are 11-3 in his starts. They've won his last SIX starts, beginning with a HUGE comeback on May 20 vs Cincy. Hanson lasted just 1.2 innings that game (eight hits and eight ERs allowed) but the Braves won, 10-9. However, Hanson hasn't needed much help lately, going 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last five starts. The Braves are 6-1 in his road starts (2.34 ERA), compared to going just 12-20 with all other starters in away games. The White Sox have struggled vs right-handers in home night games this season (5-12) and Hanson is 4-0 with a 0.75 ERA in interleague play. White Sox are up against it, tonight.
8* Bos Red Sox -150
Many thought the Red Sox to be 'dead' in the AL East with the Rays getting off to a terrific start and the Yankees being the Yankees. However, Boston is 24-8 since May 18 (tied with the Braves for MLB's best record during that stretch) and now sit at 43-28 (Rays are 42-27 and Yanks 43-27). The Rockies find themselves in a tough race in the NL West, currently sitting in fourth place, although they are just four games behind the first-place Padres. Boston returns to Coors Field for the first time since the 2007 World Series. Jon Lester made that Game 4 start, earning the series-clinching win with 5.2 shutout innings of a 4-3 Red Sox victory. Lester has been some pitcher for the Red Sox since that time. He went 16-6 (3.21 ERA) in 2008 and followed by going 15-8 (3.41 ERA) last season (Boston was a combined 44-21 in his starts those two seasons). He opened the 2010 season struggling (0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in three starts / teams was 0-3) but it's been "lights out," since. Lester is 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA over his last 11 starts (team is 9-2) and is set to help Boston improve on its 10-2 IL mark in 2010 (tied with the White Sox for the best). The Rockies have always been a strong home team and they've won 30 of their last 37 IL games at home but I want no part of them against Lester, especially with rookie Jhoulys Chacin on the mound. He made a few appearances last season and has made nine starts since May this year. He opened 2-0, not allowing an earned run in 14.1 innings (14-5 KW ratio). However, he's 1-6 with a 5.59 ERA over his last seven starts! The right-hander will face a Boston team which is 37-16 in all night games this year, inclu‚ding 24-12 vs right-handed pitching while averaging 5.88 RPG. Take those Red Sox.
BEN BURNS
Detroit Tigers -135
Oakland A's -123
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 -144
I'm playing on DETROIT. After an extended winning streak, the Mets have lost their last two games. Here, they'll take on a red hot Detroit team and I expect their skid to continue for another day.
Both starters are in great current form. Verlander's season stats are a little better though. He checks in at 8-4 (Tigers are 10-4, +4.6) with a stellar 3.54 ERA and 1.096 WHIP. Niese also has solid numbers - just not as good as Verlander's. He's 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. In addition to having a much better WHIP, Verlander has gone deeper in games. He's averaging 6.7 innings per game, while Niese is averaging 5.8. Verlander is arguably also more capable of really dominating hitters. Last time out, he had 11K's and 0 walks, through eight complete innings.
Catcher Gerald Laird had this to say about Verlander: "I've caught some good pitchers, and for starting pitchers, he's got to be right up there at the top. The main thing is that it seems he gets better as the season goes. A lot of guys tend to wear down, but he tends to get stronger and his fastball gets better as he gets into the game."
The Tigers have won eight of their last nine. They're 12-7 (+4.9) vs. southpaw starters on the season. They've hit a respectable 0.278, averaging 4.9 runs in those games. (By comparison, Mets hit .256 against right-handers.) Looking back further and we find the Tigers at 67-49 (+10) against left-handed starters the past 2+ seasons. Note that during that stretch, the Tigers are also an outstanding 32-16 (+14) in Interleague play.I look for Verlander to get the better of Niese and for the Tigers to continue their red hot roll for another day. 9*
I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's lost a tough one yesterday but I feel that they've got a strong chance of bouncing right back here.
Braden pitched very well last time out, allowing one run through six complete innings. It should be noted that he left after 83 pitches with stiffness in his elbow. However, he's expected to be just fine here. For the season, he's got a 3.00 ERA and stellar 0.981 WHIP in eight starts here, averaging 6.7 innings in those games. He had 4 K's and 1 walk.
A quick look at the boxscore will show that Arroyo is also coming off a great game, as he allowed just one run in seven innings. However, a closer look reveals that he allowed six walks. He was quoted as saying: "I had the worst stuff I've had in a while. The only thing I had was a sinker. I tried to stay down in the zone and get ground balls. I was fortunate. Those double plays changed the game." For the season, Arroyo has a poor 5.24 ERA in seven road starts. The A's, who are 8-2 against the Reds, are still 21-14 at home while the Reds are just 15-16 away from Cincinnati. I expect them to finally give Braden some run support and for him to win his first game since the no-hitter. 9*
I'm playing on BALTIMORE on the Run-Line, at +1.5 RUNS. The Orioles are having a terrible season. For that reason many don't like, or refuse to, wager on them. That leads to some generous numbers. Often, we can get them at +1.5 runs for a very reasonable price, which is the situation here.
When Guthrie is on the mound, at home, the O's always got a solid shot at earning a victory. He's got a 3.82 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in six home starts. Guthrie has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts here, averaging better than seven innings in those four games. He's allowed four earned runs or less in four straight home starts and nine of his last 10. Opposing hitters are batting just .231 here at season.
Sanchez has a respectable 3.93 ERA on the road. However, a closer look reveals that he's also got a poor 1.636 WHIP in those games. Opposing hitters are batting .301. against him on the road. In other words, he's been giving up a lot of baserunners on the road and has been a bit fortunate to have a road ERA below four.
Guthrie has 25 K's and seven walks at home. Sanchez's K/W ratio isn't nearly as good. He's got 20 K's and 17 walks on the road. Sanchez has a 1.714 WHIP his last three starts. Guthrie has a 1.181 WHIP his last three starts.
While the O's W/L stats are admittedly pretty bad, keep in mind that the Marlins are just 4-8 their last 12 road games. With Guthrie likely to deliver another solid outing, I feel that grabbing +1.5 runs with home team is the way to go. 7*
Marc Lawrence
L.A. Dodgers -125
When the Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the hill against Ervin Santana and the Angels in Anaheim tonight they will do so knowing they are 6-0 in their last six games in June behind Kershaw. The Dodgers are also 7-1 in Kershaw's last eight team starts, including 4-0 his last four. With Santana 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts and 0-2 in his last two starts in this series, look for Kershaw to improve to 2-0 in his his career team starts in this park here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on the Dodgers.