KELSO
50 Units SL Cards -1.5
15 Units Colorado +110
10 Units White Sox -130
RAS
Tulsa Shock +7
New York Liberty -1.5
NY Liberty/LA Sparks Over 155
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Boston Red Sox -110
4 Units LA Angels -120
Teddy Covers
Phil/Reds Over 9.5
Cardinals -1.5
Billy Coleman
3* LA Dodgers
Jeff Benton
15 DIME SAN DIEGO PADRES
5 DIME Blue Jays-Indians UNDER
Padres
Looking for a big bounce-back effort from San Diego after last night’s 10-6 loss to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies. And one big reason is left-hander Wade LeBlanc. Forget about his 4-5 record, as the Louisiana native has pitched MUCH better than that. He’s got a 3.16 ERA, and at home that ERA drops to 2.25. In 48 innings at Petco Park, LeBlanc has given up just 12 runs, and that includes back-to-back dominating perforaances in his last two home starts against the Mariners (one run in six innings) and Orioles (one run in 6 2/3 innings).
LeBlanc has yielded two runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts, and that includes a 3-2 home win over the Rockies on Mary 4. In that contest, LeBlanc yielded both runs and seven hits in six innings.
Why doesn’t LeBlanc have more victories to show for his efforts? Because the Padres’ offense has done a poor job of helping him out. In fact, they’ve scored three runs or fewer in eight of LeBlanc’s last 10 outings. Well, last night, after getting no-hit by Jimenez for five innings, San Diego erupteed for four sixth-inning runs and tacked on two more. They’ve scored 10 runs in the last two games and they’re averaging 4.9 runs in their last eight games, winning six of them.
Tonight, the Padres face Colorado right-hander Jason Hammel, who had started June with four straight impressive victories in which he gave up just one run in 29 1/3 innings. However, in his last outing, Hammel got touched up for four runs on seven hits in four innings of a 13-11 home loss to the Red Sox. More importantly, Hammel has been a different pitcher on the road (0-2, 6.55 ERA) than at home (5-1, 3.31 ERA). Also, in five career starts against the Padres, Hamel has posted a 5.29 ERA, with the Rockies losing the last three (including a 5-4 home defeat on April 10).
Two more points to make about the Rockies: 1) They’ve won consecutive road games just three times all season – and not once since May 31-June 1, and 2) With last night’s win, they improved to 15-1 in games started by Jimenez, but they’re just 25-35 when any other pitcher toes the rubber.
Throw in the fact the Padres are on positive runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 36-16 after a loss and 4-1 when LeBlanc faces N.L. West rivals, and I’ll lay the cheap price with complete confidence.
Blue Jays-Indians UNDER the total
Toronto right-hander Brandon Morrow has been a freaking stud over the past month. In five starts since May 31, Morrow has given up five runs and 17 hits in 34 innings (1.32 ERA). And those five starts all came against quality competition (Rays, Yankees, Rockies, Giants and Cardinals). Those five games finished with the following final scores: 3-2, 4-3, 1-0, 3-2 and 5-0, with all five staying UNDER the total.
Cleveland right-hander Fausto Carmona hasn’t been quite as dominating as Morrow lately, but he’s been more consistent over the course of the entire season. Carmona is 6-6 with a 3.64 ERA in 15 starts. In 12 of those 15 games, Carmona has allowed three earned runs or fewer, and 11 times this year the right-hander has gone at least six innings. And like Morrow, Carmona has been an “UNDER” pitcher of late. Prior to his last start (12-3 loss at Philadelphia), Carmona had stayed below the total in four consecutive starts and six of eight.
Carmona also has strong career numbers against Toronto, allowing just nine runs in 27 1/3 innings (2.96 ERA). That includes a two-run, 6 1/3-inning effort at home against the Jays on May 5. Most importantly, Carmona has never surrendered a home run to the Blue Jays, which is a point worth making since Toronto leads the majors with 115 home runs (the only team close is Boston with 103 big flies).
It’s really been feast or famine for the Blue Jays all season, as they hit just .239 as a team, which is tied for 28th out of 30 teams (only the Pirates and Astros at .238 are worse). Of course, the Indians aren’t much better, as their .248 team average is 25th best in baseball. And it’s not like either squad is killing it at the dish right now – Toronto is batting just .232 in its last 10 games, while Cleveland is hitting .248 in its last 10.
Bottom line: If the Blue Jays and Indians could only generate a total of three runs last night when one of the starting pitchers was Jake Westbrook, how are they going to triple that output tonight with the way Morrow and Carmona are dealing?
Anything more than six runs tonight would be shocking to me, so we’ve got value in this total and we’ll play it low.
NSA
20* Twins -130
20* Phillies +120
20* Giants -145
The Duke's Sports
BoSox (-107) for 2.5 Units
Despite some key injuries to Boston, we like them here. Boston is 44-18 as a home favorite, including 6-0 in team starts with Lackey. Lackey, who avenged TB in May from a tough outing at Fenway in April, should be on his game vs a slumping TB lineup batting just .171 vs righties this month. On the other hand, Shields is struggling and a mere 9-23 on the road vs teams with a winning record; furthermore, he is 0-6 in his last 6 team starts. We'll look for TB's winning streak at Fenway to end.
Freddy Wills
4.5 Dime POD Twins -137
3-Dime Reds -122
Jimmy Boyd
5* AL Central Game of the Year White Sox -127
Since winning 11 straight, the White Sox have dropped 2 in a row. I expect them to show up with an extra sense of focus tonight to make sure these couple losses don't turn into a losing streak. The Sox have put themselves right back in the division race, and the last thing they want to do is fall out of it as quickly as they got back into it. They will be in good hands with Floyd, who has posted an ERA of 0.93 over his last 4 starts. Opponents are only hitting .155 off of him during this stretch. The Royals put Bannister on the hill, and his ERA is up to 9.69 over his last 3 starts. Bannister has a WHIP of 1.483 on the season, and that is significant as the White Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The White Sox are also a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games during game 2 of a series. Meanwhile, the Royals are 15-38 in their last 53 games during game 2 of a series. It also can't go unmentioned that KC is just 2-23 after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. I'm confident the Sox will bounce back tonight.
3* Red Sox -114
The Red Sox are dealing with some key injuries, but they are clearly playing better baseball than Tampa Bay right now. The Rays' struggles are causing plenty of frustration, and I don't see those struggles coming to an end tonight. The Rays send Shields to the hill, and he has lost his last six starts, posting an ERA of 7.12 in that stretch. He is also 1-6 lifetime at Boston with an ERA of 7.53. Plus, the Rays are 4-12 in Shields' last 16 starts vs. the Red Sox. Lackey is on the bump for Boston and he has won his last 6 home starts. In addition, he's 10-3 lifetime with an ERA of 3.71 against the Rays. The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Red Sox.
3* Twins -123
After falling a half game out of first with yesterday's loss to the Tigers, look for the Twins to be extremely motivated to bounce back strong at home tonight. The Tigers are just 19-40 in their last 59 games as a road underdog and the Tigers are 29-65 in the last 94 meetings in Minnesota. Zooming in, the Tigers have lost 17 of their last 23 in Minnesota. Galarraga has never had any luck against the Twins. In fact, he's just 1-5 lifetime with an ERA of 5.80. The Tigers are also 3-10 in Galarraga's last 13 starts as a road underdog. Blackburn has had a couple rough starts on the road, but he will be glad to be back home where he is 4-0 with an ERA of 3.19 this season. The Twins have also won his last 3 starts against the Tigers and 7 of his last 8 against the AL Central. Minnesota is 15-4 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season, and I'll take the Twins in this price range today.
John Ryan
25* KC Royals