Jim Feist
5-Star Game 4 ALCS Romp
NEW YORK YANKEES VS LOS ANGELES ANGELS
TAKE: NEW YORK YANKEES
Reason: There's no use standing in the way of this NY juggernaut, especially with their ace on the hill. C.C. Sabathia pitched eight terrific innings in Game 1 of the ALCS against the Angels on Friday night, allowing one run on four hits. He struck out seven and walked just one. The Angels' big bats haven't been producing. Tough to back Scott Kazmir (4.89 ERA), who has a 5.95 ERA at home this season. Play the NY Yankees.
Chris Jordan
400♦ YANKEES
Anthony Redd
5 Dime Angels
Brandon Lang
10 DIME - LA ANGELS
After the dramatic win last night I look for the Angels bats to come alive in the warmth of Orange County and a 2nd look at CC Sabathia.
The bottom line is the Angels will get some scoring opportunities today but unlike New York where they didn't cash in, I like them to cash in here tonight.
As for Scott Kazmir, he is chomping at the bit to get out there and get the job done after his poor playoff start at Boston which saw him get hit for 5 runs in 6 innings of a 7-6 Angel comeback win.
All told, he has gone 2-2 in with a 1.73 ERA in 8 starts since joining the Angels while Los Angeles won 6 of those 8 starts overall.
In 14 career starts against the Yankees Kazmir is 6-5 with a rock solid ERA of 2.66. Great spot and great price to back the Angels.
I have been waiting for a CC Sabathia implosion and my gut tells me his first one is going to happen tonight.
Even with his game one win over the Angels Sabathia is still 6-7 lifetime against the Halos with an ERA around 5 so again, the Angels will be confident.
Los Angeles evens up the series 2-2 with this win tonight.
LA ANGELS (Kazmir over Sabathia)
FREE SELECTION - NY YANKEES-LA ANGELS UNDER
Bob Akmens
Angels
Executive
400 Angels
Dave Malinsky
4* ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs -145 over NY YANKEES
As we wrote in backing the Angels yesterday, despite the 2-0 New York opening, this series is far from over. And the oddsmakers and betting markets allow us to fit a major value equation with today?s Run Line, which puts the best of the Angel advantages into play, while not having to rely on a bullpen that performed well on Monday, but still brings too many arms that are not quite ready for this pressure. Let?s get to the meat and potatoes. Although we have been a ?C. C. Rider? (does anyone remember that Chuck Willis wrote the original?) through Sabathia?s first two playoff starts, and his stuff has been special since the All Star break, every bit of that form is being priced here. So much so that a Yankee team that brings issues in other areas is being priced entirely wrong in terms of getting a break-out win of two runs or more. We can start with an offense that has scored 3, 4, 4, 3 and 4 runs in the regulation nine innings of the last five games. And we can go to a bullpen that can be brought down to the level of their Angel counterparts for this setting. If there is a closer situation, Mariano Rivera will be working for the fourth time in five days, off of 59 pitches, and that 2.1 inning stint on Saturday night adds an extra layer to the pitch count. Meanwhile there is no way of projecting Joba Chamberlain?s confidence level after he served up those batting practice pitches in game #3, and particularly note the 1.2 innings from Phil Hughes, who did not have a situation all season in which he pitched more than an inning, and then came back the next day. Sabathia is terrific, but the surrounding cast tonight is not all that special. The Angels not only have renewed confidence now, but this is the very reason that they brought Scott Kazmir on board. A legitimate case can be made that he has been tougher on this lineup than any pitcher in the Major Leagues, and we will let some of the numbers speak for themselves as we go down the Yankee batting order ? Derek Jeter .111 (4-36 with 11 strikeouts), Johnny Damon .167 (6-36 with seven strikeouts), Mark Teixeira .636 (his 6-11 is a rare problem spot, but there are no home runs in that sampling), Alex Rodriguez .125 (3-24 with seven strikeouts), Hideki Matsui .179 (5-28 with five strikeouts), Jorge Posada .440 (11-25, but eight of the hits were singles), Robinson Cano .154 (4-26 with nine strikeouts), Nick Swisher .185 (5-27 with six strikeouts), and Melky Cabrera .400 (8-20, but six of the hits singles and only two rbi?s). Those are imposing numbers, and having worked to a 2.55 tune in 42.1 innings so far in an Angel uniform, a span in which they sport a 6-1 tally as +1.5, his form is there also. We will make our ticket the +1.5, using Kazmir to keep the Angels in the hunt, and the ability of the Angels to peck away late vs. the Yankee bullpen, without having to rely on Mike Scioscia?s relief corps. And the current market price more than allows for that play.
HalfBets
9* Over 8 -115
6* Yankees RL +120
Robert Ferringo
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels
The Duke's Sports
LA Angels (+119) for 2 Units
Sabathia thinks it is overplayed on him going on 3 days rest,however, the fact of the matter is that he threw 118 pitches last Friday, which is a high count for a starter in today's game. And keep in mind that post season pitchers on 3 days rest since 1995 have a combined 37% winning mark with a bloated 4.69 ERA. And Sabathia has not been successful in Anaheim. We don't believe he'll have his best stuff and look for this dangerous Angles' lineup to jump on him here. The Angels are 14-5 at home vs lefty starters. On the other hand, Scott Kazmir has had succes vs NY holding them to a meager .214 BA over 9 starts. And Kazmir is starting to settle in at Anaheim since arriving in September. The Angels are a dangerous home dog at 22-6, including 6-0 in this price range. With NY at 8-21 in Anaheim and 1-7 in their last 8 playoff road games, we'll jump on the Angels here.
Fantasy Sports GamTime
50* Yankees -1.35
50* NHL Pitt -175
50* NHL Calgary -1.45
Lenny Del Genio
Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Angels +125
The Angels have been very kind to us this postseason and we really like them in the home dog role tonight against CC Sabathia. Los Angeles has won 13 of 16 in the home dog role this season, including 12-2 at +125 or less. Consider that they probably should be up in this series two games to one, if not for a few boneheaded plays, and this despite getting little production from the middle of the lineup. However, Abreu, Guerrero and Kendrick all had multiple hits yesterday and if they get hot, this could mean serious trouble for the Yankees. Note that the Angels are 14-1 this season following a game where they had six or more extra base hits. CC Sabathia is working on three days rest here and we think New York manager Joe Girardi is making a mistake. Since 1995, starters working on three days rest are just 20-34 with a 4.65 ERA in 85 starts. The Angels counter with a lefty of their own in Scott Kazmir, who has been very effective in his career vs. the Yankees (2.66 ERA in 14 starts), allowing more than three earned runs just one time. Kazmir was also effective during the stretch run, allowing just eight earned runs in his final seven regular season starts (42+ IP). He did not pitch well in his LDS start, but that was in Boston, and Kazmir is certainly a pitcher who thrives on pitching in his home ballpark, posting a 25-7 TSR at home the past two seasons (most with Tampa Bay). Sabathia was rocked for five runs in his lone appearance this year at Angels Stadium, where the Yankees have lost 12 of 16 as a team. Throw in the fact that LA has cleaned up vs. lefties this year (+$1645), going 39-18 with 5.4 runs scored per game, and we think the Angels are going to even this series up. Take LA Angels.
Opposite Action Plays
LA Angels
Tony George
Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Under 8
Two aces going at it. CC Sabathia and Scott Kazmir. Two Bullpens with under a 2.05 ERA.Yankees under 1.60 ERA. A tight game, 4-3 or 3-2 type ballgame and neither team really lighting it up huge at the plate.Like the Under here and some deep and talented bullpens backing up some solid pitchers, even if Sabathia is on 3 days rest he will bring it. Yankees slightly better.
Play 1 Unit on the Under
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Atlanta vs. Montreal
Play: Montreal -118
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on Montreal as I believe the Habs will put together their best game of the season against the overachieving Thrashers: If you believe all the talk going on in Montreal right now,the Canadiens season is already over, but to the masses I say; don't hit the panic button quite yet! Montreal was booed off the ice in its 3-1 loss against the Senators its last time out and the combination of new comers Mike Cammalleri, Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta have yet to gel,but I believe they will tonight. Despite the struggles Montreal has endured to begin the season,it's important to note that Montreal is in fact 4-2 its last six vs. Atlanta.
On the other side of the ice: This is the final game in a five-game road-trip for the Thrashers and the first of three over the next five days. Atlanta has benefited from a somewhat leisurely pace to the early season, having played a league-low five games in two weeks.Keep in mind that Atlanta has always struggled in Montreal as its a poor 1-5 its last six at the Bell Center.
Bottom line: This is a classic "situational value play" for me. Atlanta is at the end of a long road-trip (and is frankly overachieving in my opinion), and then has to go home and deal with two more games over the next four days; a tall order for any club to deal with.The Canadiens are struggling and desperately need a convincing victory in front of the home-town crowd before things start getting out of hand. When taking all of the above into account I believe we're getting excellent value on the Canadiens! 9*