Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday September 1,2009

HalfBets
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8* Mets/Rockies OVER 9.5

Robert Ferringo

2.5-Unit Play. Take Colorado (-1.5, -110) over N.Y. Mets

1.5-Unit Play. Take L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, -110) over Arizona

1.5-Unit Play. Take N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -115) over Baltimore

1.5-Unit Play. Take L.A. Angels (-135) over Seattle

1-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (+145) over Boston

1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-1.5, +120) over San Francisco

1-Unit Play. Take Cincinnati (-115) over Pittsburgh

Today's Totals

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Houston at Chicago Cubs

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Boston at Tampa Bay

0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 L.A. Angels at Seattle

0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Arizona at L.A. Dodgers

Charlie

Yankees/Baltimore under 9', Arizona/Dodgers over 9 & Milwaukee/St. Louis under 8'. (500* 3 team rd robin).
Florida +105 (30*)
Reds -125 (20*)
San Diego -135 (20*)
Angels -140 (10*)
Texas -150 game 2 (10*) free play

Right Angle Sports

Early College FB

Akron +27

E Mich -5

ID +3

MTSU +19'

All for 1 Unit

INDIANCOWBOY

4 Unit Play. Take Under 9 Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers

With nearly 80% riding the Dodgers, this game quickly stood out. For starters, Padilla is a decent pitcher who will be more effective in the national league. Tack that on with the fact he is still new to the Dodgers club, he will look to impress his new teammates once again. Plus, this is Padilla's first home start for the Dodgers. In short, I expect a good performance from him today. But, that does not mean Petit will not also have a strong performance. Once again, with this play being such a huge public play, the public indeed has a great shot of being buried here. Petit worked on his mechanics of late and has given up 1 run in 12 innings. The reason why he re-worked some of his mechanics was from his previous start to the Dodgers where he was telegraphing his pitches a bit and was rocked for seven runs in four innings. I expect him to have a much better effort today against the Dodgers given the changes he has made. The Under is 6-1 in Petit's last seven starts as an underdog by this margin and the Under is 8-2-1 for the Dodgers when the total is set at this range.

Tony Salinas

26* NY Yankees (-185) over Orioles
Clear. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

24* Mariners (-135) over La Angels
Clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

25* Padres (-135) over Nationals
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75

TONY BRUNO WINS

20x TEXAS GM2

KBHoops
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5* Arizona +1.5 -120 **POD**

MR EAST
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Red Sox at Rays
Pick: Rays +145
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Taking the Tampa Bay Rays at home is always loaded with value, especially when you take a look at what they have done here over the last 2 years. The Rays are currently 42-21 at home on the season, and are now 69-28 at home in their last 97 vs a team with a losing road record. Andy Sonnenstine has not had a great year, but at the same time, the Rays are 10-2 in his last 12 home starts vs a team with a winning record. The Red Sox aren't meant for field turf, as they are 0-8 in their last 8 played on it, and they are also 1-12 in their last 13 on the road vs a team with a winning record. The Red Sox now, just 5-16 in their last 21 played in Tampa dropping their last 5. I'll go with Tampa Bay here.

C-Stars Sports

5000 Units MLB Game Of The Year!

Boston Red Sox Over Tampa Bay

Scott Rickenbach

6* OVER the total in Texas vs Toronto – Game 1 of Double Header – action vs action

You’ll notice that, unlike when we normally list starting pitchers with our games, for this play today we have simply listed action for the pitchers. That’s because sometimes, in the case of a double header, the managers will end up making a decision to switch up the pitchers a few hours before game time. They will flip flop a guy that was slated to start the earlier game with the guy that was originally going to start the late game. In this case, we want action on this game no matter who pitches in this game. That’s because of a couple factors. First off, the batters come into this game with plenty of confidence as last night’s 18-10 final was a massive slugfest where both teams got involved. Secondly, the big scoring last night put some major wounds on each bullpen that their still licking today. Here in the first game of this double header, the managers will be inclined to stick with a starting pitcher or a middle reliever longer than they should (even if they’re struggling) because, after last night’s slugfest, and with a game on tap tonight, the managers are looking to preserve some bullpen. That leaves game one of this double header open to some big innings with crooked numbers being put on the scoreboard!

We like this over even if the pitching match-up gets switched up because the scheduled night starters are Brian Tallet for the Jays and Brandon McCarthy for the Rangers. Note that Tallet has struggled and has been used out of the bullpen as a result and McCarthy will be making his first appearance in the majors since landing on the DL earlier this season with a shoulder injury. As for the scheduled starters for the day game today, we love the fact that Dustin Nippert is caught looking over his shoulder today. He knows that McCarthy could end up taking his spot in the rotation. That said, don’t be surprised if his struggles with control continue. Mentally, Nippert is simply not in good shape right now and he’s receiving added pressure knowing that his days in the rotation could be over. Nippert has given up 14 runs (13 earned) on 23 hits and 14 walks in his last 20.2 innings of work. As for the Blue Jays, they are scheduled to start Marc Rzepczynski in the opener of this double header. In his most recent road start he did hold the Rays to one earned run in six innings but he walked three while striking out just one. In his three prior road starts, note that Rzepczynski allowed 10 earned runs on 17 hits and 6 walks in just 14.2 innings of work. We look for his road struggles to resume as he faces a Rangers offense whose .491 slugging percentage at home is ranked 3rd best in the majors, right behind the Yankees at new Yankee Stadium and the Red Sox at Fenway Park. That’s certainly good company to keep…and this one turns into another slugfest! Play OVER the total in Texas in Game 1 of the double header Tuesday as a 6* Regular Play.

6* OVER the total in Tampa Bay vs Boston – Sonnanstine vs Lester

How confident are the Rays in Andy Sonnanstine? The statement has already been made that, no matter what he does in this start, they are certainly not yet committing to him for more than one start. Sonnanstine has been called up from the minors to make this start only because of the trade of Scott Kazmir to the Angels. Sonnanstine has a 5.08 ERA in his career against Boston. Even though he held the Red Sox to two earned runs in 5.2 innings in his only start against them this season, note that Boston had eight hits and four walks so they averaged more than two base runners per inning. We don’t expect them to waste the opportunities like they did in that first shot against Sonnanstine much earlier this season!

The Red Sox come into this series riding a wave of confidence after wrapping up August on a 10-3 run. Boston averaged 7.3 runs per game in those 13 games! As for the Rays, they exploded for 11 runs at the plate at Detroit yesterday. Prior to that, Tampa Bay’s sticks had been a little quiet but note that the Rays were on the road. They tend to be much more potent offensively at home compared to away from Tropicana Field. Note that the Rays are hitting .275 at home this season. That’s good enough to rank 7th out of all 30 MLB teams and the Rays should “tee off” against Jon Lester of the Red Sox tonight. Lester did have an excellent start at Tampa Bay the last time he faced the Rays but a repeat should not be expected here.

Lester got hammered the other two times he saw the Rays this season, both times in Boston, and note that Lester has not pitched well in domes in his career. Outdoors, Lester is 34-12 with a 3.58 ERA but indoors he is 3-3 with a 5.01 ERA. He has a tendency to give up a lot of big hits indoors and gets victimized by the big inning. Lester will face a confident Rays lineup after the 11-run outburst they delivered yesterday and, with Sonnanstine also likely to struggle here, this one quickly opens up into a hitters’ affair. Even though both bullpens have been solid overall on the season, we’ve seen a few slip-ups by the Red Sox in recent weeks, and the Rays pen struggled in each of their last two games in Detroit. The key here though is the starting pitchers and two confident lineups. That leads to fireworks early in this one. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a 6* Regular Play.

Chris Jordan

300♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES - This time of year I’m not fond of looking at games like this – ones with cellar dwellers, but the Padres look like an absolute steal tonight, against what has to be a tremendously tired baseball team. Washington, which has lost 24 of its last 32 in San Diego, is playing its 15th game in as many days and eighth straight on the road.

The Nationals’ road trip began in Chicago, moved to St. Louis and is now in San Diego … not exactly a regionally conducive junket for the worst team in baseball. And while this is a battle of two of the National League’s worst teams, the Padres are in after taking two of three on the road in each of their last two series, against postseason-hopefuls Atlanta and Florida.

Overall, San Diego is dominating the Nats no matter where the two meet, as it’s on a 27-8 run in this series. On the other hand, the Nationals own the league’s worst record, they’ve lost four straight, they’re mired on a 19-55 skid on the highway and have lost 11 of 14 most recently.

All Padres tonight, as they should be laying a lot more than the prices I am seeing.

100♦ MINNESOTA TWINS - I had them yesterday, I’ll take the Twins tonight once again. Much of this will be repetitive, but that’s because this pick is for many of the same reasons. For instance, I told you the South Siders have struggled in Minnesota, and after last night they’re 2-14 in their last 16 in the Twin Cities.

Chicago came into series after being outscored 23-5 in a three-game sweep by the Yankees, in the Bronx and come into tonight’s clash on losing streaks of 1-8 overall, 7-20 on the highway and 1-7 overall in this series.

Seems to me the upper brass has waved the white flag, in shipping Jim Thome and Jose Contreras out of town … basically saying “we’re done for the season.” Chicago is playing their ninth straight road game in as many days and 12th straight overall. Physically tired and mentally drained, I say this is an easy underdog winner, as the Twins get by their visiting rivals.

Doc's Sports

3-Unit Play Take Milwaukee Brewers +180 over St. Louis Cardinals

3-Unit Play Take Arizona Diamondbacks +170 over LA Dodgers

3-Unit Play Take Tampa Bay Rays +145 over Boston Red Sox

Dave Malinsky

Top of the Ticket - Side

MINNESOTA TWINS (Manship)+135 over Chicago White Sox (Danks)

The floundering White Sox are 2-15 in their last 17 games at the Metrodome, a disaster of a ballpark for a team that brings limited speed and awful defense to the table (only the Nationals have allowed more runs directly off of errors). And in going 1-7 on their current road trip six of their losses have come by multiple runs. So where does this price come from? Starting pitching, just about every penny of it. And in this case the oddsmakers even got the value of the starters in the equation wrong. Does John Danks merit this range? Absolutely not. The Twins actually enjoy seeing his stuff, starting with Michael Cuddyer (11-24, with three doubles and two home runs), and continuing through Justin Morneau (8-24, with two doubles and three home runs), Brendan Harris (8-21 with a pair of homers), Jason Kubel (6-16, with two doubles and a home run) and Joe Mauer (9-24). That is part of why Danks sports a career 5.33 ERA from this mound, and note that does not include four unearned runs in 28.2 innings. With this defense behind him, unearned runs can be a major factor again. Meanwhile Jeff Manship earns little respect for Minnesota in his first Major League start, but that is great for us from a price standpoint. Manship does not have to be asked for all that much here, just make a couple of passes through a lineup that looks a whole lot different without Jim Thome out there, especially with key right-handers Jermaine Dye (17-98 over the last 26 games, with only three of the hits going for extra bases), and Alex Rios (10-56 in a White Sox uniform, with 16 strikeouts and three rbi’s) producing very little these days. Manship then turns it over to a red-hot bullpen that has set-up men Jose Mijares (2.10 with 20 holds) and Matt Guerrier (2.29 with 26 holds) in good stead on our fatigue charts, and while Joe Nathan has worked back-to-back games, he only needed 11 pitches last night to lock up his 35th save, and should be fine here.