Al DeMarco
5 Dime - Texas Rangers
Stephen Nover
20 Dime - Houston Astros
Karl Garrett
20 Dime - Oakland As
Paul Leiner
50* Cubs/Cards Over 7
25* Yankees +120
Fantasy Sports Gametime
50* Play Atlanta (-210) over Washington
Washington has lost 6 consecutive games and they have also lost 28 of the last 35 road games when playing on a Tuesday. Livan Hernandez is 8-16 vs. Atlanta over his career with an ERA of 4.91 and he is also 1-2 over the last 3 overall starts with an ERA of 8.48.
50* Play NY Mets (-190) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has lost 56 of the last 71 road games and they have also lost 50 of the last 74 games after batting .240 or worse over the last 10 games. Zach Duke has lost 56 of the last 76 road games and he has an ERA of 9.53 over the last 3 overall starts.
KIKI SPORTS
3 Units Philadelphia -160
1 Unit Milwaukee +100
1 Unit Minnesota +105
Power Play Wins
Minnesota
DAVE COKIN
Solid Gold - Houston Astros
Colorado Rockies
Chris Jordan
400* Atlanta Braves -1.5
100* Texas
Ben Burns
10* Seattle +1.5
MTi Sports
4* Giants
4* Astros
Rich Green
3* Texas
DAVID BANKS
Reds -160
Rangers -150
White Sox -107
Rockies -148
Mariners +118
Dodgers +101
KELSO
50 Units Cincinnati Reds -155
15 Units Minnesota Twins +105
10 Units Tampa Bay Rays -140
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Baltimore Orioles -120
4 Units Minnesota Twins +105
DAVE COKIN
Solid Gold - Houston Astros
Colorado Rockies
Chris Jordan
400* Atlanta Braves -1.5
100* Texas
Ben Burns
10* Seattle +1.5
MTi Sports
4* Giants
4* Astros
Rich Green
3* Texas
DAVID BANKS
Reds -160
Rangers -150
White Sox -107
Rockies -148
Mariners +118
Dodgers +101
KELSO
50 Units Cincinnati Reds -155
15 Units Minnesota Twins +105
10 Units Tampa Bay Rays -140
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Baltimore Orioles -120
4 Units Minnesota Twins +105
Brandon Lang
N.Y. Yankees +135
Street Rosenthal
*200 Baltimore Orioles -118
*200 Houston Astros -126
The Duke's Sports
LA Dodgers Under (7) for 2 Units
Pitching has been solid for both of these teams this month, especially San Francisco, which has held opponents to 3 runs or less over their last 8 games --all on the road! And even though Barry Zito has struggled, we saw some good things from him in his last start. Zito is 2-11-3 O/U in his last 16 vs the Dodgers, including 0-5 O/U at home. And the Dodgers' bats are not exactly lighting up lefties this month (.226 BA). We'll look for Zito to turn in a quality outing here before turning it over to the red hot SF bullpen (0.38 ERA this month). At the same time, Kershaw should continue to throw well; after all, he has been consistently solid most of the season and sports a 2.27 ERA over his last 6 starts. Kershaw is 4-13 O/U vs the NLW. The Giants are batting an anemic .177 vs lefties this month. "Under" it is.
Bob Balfe
New York Mets -1.5
The Pirates are horrible on the road and I am surprised they are not shutting Zach Duke down for the season. Duke has not been himself this year and nowhere near 100%. R.A Dickey is having a fine season and is one of the best at home with a ERA under 2.00. Look for the Mets to get a big win. Take New York.
Marc Lawrence
Rockies -150
The Rockies look to continue their torrid pursuit of a playoff spot when they send Jason Hammel to the mound against San DIego's lifeless bats at Coors Field tonight. Hammel enter the game is great KW form with five walks and 22 strikeouts in his last four starts. He's also 5-0 in his last five team starts and 11-1 in his last 12 home steam starts, including 6-0 his last six. With Padres' right-hander Jon Garland 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts and San Diego having not plated more than four runs in any of its previous 16 games entering this series, look for the Rockies to remain red-hot here this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on Colorado.
Lenny Del Genio
Marlins
Philly is surging in the NL East having taken over first place from the Braves, currently leading Atlanta by one game entering Tuesday's action. They dominated the Marlins in Monday's series opener, 11-4, to improve to 11-5 in head to head play vs. the Fish this year, including 6-1 in Florida. They send ace Cole Hamels to the hill tonight and he's a perfect 3-0 his last three outings having not allowed a single run over 22 innings pitched. However, despite everything seemingly "lining up" for the Phils here, we're going the other way. This is mainly because of Florida's record vs. lefties this season, a matchup we've been exploiting alot recently. At this point, we're almost embarrassed as the Marlins vs. a southpaw starter has been an automatic play for us. In fact, we've used them three of the last four times they've been in this situation, winning each time. Overall, the Marlins are a NL best 30-13 vs. lefty starters this season. Interestingly, the only time they've lost vs. a lefty in the last month came last week vs. Hamels and the Phils, but we think revenge is in the cards here considering Florida's 13-4 mark revenging a loss where the opponent scored 10 or more runs. The difference between that last meeting and this one is that this game will be played in Miami. Hamels has been a huge money burner as a sizable favorite (-125 to -175) with Philly losing 9 of his 13 starts in that price range. Hamels has never won in six career starts here and in his 13 starts this year that the team has lost, the offense has averaged just two runs per game and not scored at all in eight of them. Look for Marlins starter Adalberto Mendez, who is coming off six innings of one-hit ball in his MLB debut vs. Philly on 9.6, to match Hamels here. Take Florida.
Cubs
Given the Cards propensity to fall to losing teams we weren't surprised in the least to see them go down yday at home vs. the rival Cubs, losing by a score of 5-1. The Redbirds playoff hopes are all but dead at this point as losses in eight of their previous 13 games have them seven full games behind the first place Reds. This has to be a huge disappointment for the club and we're going to look to go against them down the stretch as they continue to fade. St. Louis has lost 6 of 10 to their main NL Central rivals this season and the Cards are a money burning 3-8 this year playing with double revenge if they were a home favorite in both losses. They are -1650 in the favorite role this year. This is mainly due to a 16-24 mark vs. the Cubs, Brewers and Astros, who are a collective 35 games under .500 entering Tuesday's play. Great value here. Take Chicago Cubs.
Jeff Benton
15 DIME COLORADO -1½
5 DIME KANSAS CITY
ROCKIES -1½
Huge victory for San Diego in Coors Field last night, as it cooled off Colorado with a 6-4 victory, ending the Rockies’ 10-game winning streak and putting themselves back atop the N.L. West staadings (half-game ahead of San Francisco and 2½ games ahead of the Rockies). Still, if you take away a three-game home sweep of the crappy Dodgers (who have quit on the season), the Padres are just 2-13 in their last 15 games overall. And of those 13 defeats, 10 have been by more than one run.
Even though San Diego continues to sport a solid 39-30 road record, it hasn’t won consecutive road games against a playoff contender since beating Tampa Bay on June 22 and 23. At the same time, you have to go back to July 27-28 for the last time the Rockies lost consecutive home games (shockingly, against the lowly Pirates). In fact, only twice all season has Colorado lost as many as two in a row in the same hoemestand.
Of course, no team in baseball has been better at protecting its home turf than the Rockies, who are 50-23 at Coors Field (13-3 in the last 16), thanks in large part to an offense that is crushing the baseball to the tune of a .302 home batting average.
The Rockies are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall, and they’re still 10-5 against the Padres this season (San Diego hasn’t won back-to-back meetings all year). As for the run-line aspect of this play, note that 12 of the 15 meetings this season – including nine of the last 10 – have been decided by more than one run.
Finally, the Rockies have the better pitcher on the mound in Jason Hammel. Colorado is 5-0 in his last five starts and 7-1 in his last eight outings (with Hammel going at least six innings in seven of those eight games). Additionally, Hammel is 7-1 with a 3.67 ERA at Coors Field, with the Rockies going 11-3 in his 14 home starts this year and 21-6 in his last 27 home starts dating to last year. And in his three starts against San Diego since June 29, Hammel is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA (all three wins by multiple runs).
Meanwhile, San Diego’s Jon Garland has hit a wall (0-3, 6.19 ERA last three starts); he’s been far less comfrrtable on the road (6-6, 4.04 ERA) than at home (7-5, 3.10 ERA); and he’s 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this season – a 4-2 loss in Colorado on April 11 and a 6-2 home loss to Hammel on Sept. 4.
With Hammel leading the way on the mound and the Rockies’ powerful offense (.311 team batting average last 10 games) backing him with plenty of run support, Colorado gets back on track and tightens the N.L. West race a little more with a blowout victory over the punchless Padres (batting .214 in their last 10 games).
ROYALS
Obviously, this hasn’t been the kind of season Zack Greinke was hoping for following his dominating Cy Young performance in 2009. He’s just 8-12 with a 3.90 ERA, and he’s received arguably the worst run support of any top-flight starter in baseball (the Royals average just 3.2 runs when Greinke pitches).
All this said, I can’t pass up a guy with Grienke’s stuff at home at this kind of pick-em price, even if it is against an Oakland team that has dominated Kansas City this year (6-1 in seven games) and even if I do respect A’s starter Gio Gonzalez (14-8, 3.16 ERA, including 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last five starts).
For one thing, Greinke hasn’t been pitching horribly of late – he’s allowed 15 runs in his last six starts covering 44 1/3 innings (3.05 ERA), and he’s gone at least six innings in eight straight starts, including four games when he pitched exactly eight innings. And even though Greinke suffered a 5-1 home loss to Gonzalez and the A’s in mid July, he’s still 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his career against Oakland (12 games, eight starts).
Back to Gonzalez. The southpaw is obviously rolling right now, and he was terrific when he matched up against Greinke two months ago (one run, seven hits, one walk in seven innings). However, in two previous starts against the Royals, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 9 1/3 innings. Also, it should be noted that Gonzalez has some start splits, as he’s 8-3 with a 2.70 ERA at home but 6-5 with a 3.61 ERA on the road, and he’s 7-1 with a 2.10 ERA in 10 day games (Oakland is 9-1) but 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA in 20 nighttime starts (Oakland is 8-11).
Bottom line: I know all the stats and trends point to the A’s – including the fact that Oakland has won 61 of the last 93 overall meetings in this rivalry and 36 of the last 51 meetings in Kansas City – but again, to get Greinke at this kind of price is too good to pass up. And for what it’s worth, there’s a “homer” umpire working the dish tonight, as the home team is 25-9 in Mike Muchlinski’s last 34 games behind the plate, 4-0 in his last four games involving the Royals and 6-1 in his last seven games involving the A’s.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
St. Louis -1.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the Cardinals on the "run line":
Randy Wells gets the call for the visitors; Wells is coming off a poor outing and I expect him to stumble here as well; he allowed four runs on nine hits over six frames vs. the Astros on Wednesday; he's allowed at least four runs in three of his last four outings with massive walk totals.
And remember, Chicago has struggled mightily in this position all year long; 29-42 (-24 units) vs. division opponents; 40-54 (-17.7 units) vs. right-handed starters; 23-36 (-9.4 units) when playing against a team with a winning record.
In the other dugout: Adam Wainwright heads to the hill for the home side; Wainwright is coming off a victory and I expect him to build on that performance; he's one win away from matching last years win total; he's 18-10 on the year with a 2.38 ERA.
St. Louis is 4-2 its last six in front of the home town crowd; also 8-3 (+1.4 units) as a home favorite of -200 to -225; 9-2 (+5.8 units) when playing at home with a total of 7 or less.
Bottom line: The Cardinals’ 5-1 loss to the Cubs in Monday’s series opener was their fifth defeat in seven games, and dropped them seven games behind the division-leading Reds with 20 to play for St. Louis; I expect St. Louis to play with "revenge" here and to continue to push for a playoff spot behind their Cy Young candidate;