National Sports Service
Toronto
Colorado
Cincinnati
Chris Jordan
100* Phillies -1.5
100* Marlins
100* Cubs
Beat Your Bookie
10* Play Detroit (-160) over Kansas City (POD)
Detroit is 33-13 vs. left-handed starting pitchers the last 2 seasons
Detroit is 27-7 as a favorite of -150 or higher this season
Bruce Chen is 3-8 as an underdog of +150 or higher the last 3 seasons
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Philadelphia (-220) over Atlanta
Philadelphia has won 12 of the last 13 games and they have also won 26 of the last 37 games after allowing one run or less. Roy Halladay has won 12 of the last 13 games vs. division opponents and he is 2-0 vs. Atlanta over his career with an ERA of 0.36.
50* Play Boston (-190) over Baltimore
Boston has won 21 of the last 25 games coming off three or more UNDER the totals and they have also won 19 of the last 25 games vs. Baltimore at home. Clay Buchholz has won 10 of the last 12 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has also won 3 consecutive games when playing on a Tuesday.
Rocketman
3* Houston Astros -105
Rich Green
3* Phillies
Totals 4 U
Top Play
NYY OVER 9
Reg Plays
Atl UNDER 8
KC UNDER 9
Cincy OVER 9
Minn OVER 8
Teddy Covers
Rockies
MTi Sports
4* Astros
3* Angels
3* Cubs
ASA
Houston Astros
Scott Rickenbach
Toronto Over
Boston Over
Kyle Hunter
Philly -1.5
Yankees Over
Rockies Over
STEPHEN NOVER
100 Dime Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds are one of the most improved and surprising teams this season. They're on their way to capturing the NL Central Division barring a total collapse.
But when the Reds meet the Brewers they are more than good: They become the 1927 New York Yankees.
Cincinnati is 8-1 versus Milwaukee this season. The Reds have defehted the Brewers in their last six games by a combined score of 46-17.
The pitching matchup is Edinson Volquez versus David Bush. On paper, the matchup looks like only a slight edge for Cincinnati. That's the way the oddsmaker sees it. The reality, though, is different. The Reds should be much stronger favorites.
Let's start with Bush. He's consistent, consistenntly mediocre-to-bad that is. He's 7-12 with a 4.75 ERA. At Miller Park, Bush is 4-7 with a 4.56 ERA. Lifetime versus Cincinnati, Bush is 2-4 with a 7.07 ERA.
Bush is a flyball pitcher so pitching at Miller Park is a negative for him. He's surrendered 27 homers on the season. His flyball-to-groundball ratio during his past four starts is 20-to-10. As the long season nears it end, Bush can leave even more pitches in the zone as he tires. The Reds have the power to take advanthge.
Cincinnati leads the National League in runs scored. The Reds, in fact, rank fourth in the majors in runs, batting average and home runs.
So the Reds are going to get their runs. The key is how will Volquez pitch? The season numbers show a 3-3 mark and 4.99 ERA. That's not confidence-inspiring. But these season numbers can be thrown out. Volquez is a special case.
Volquez didn't make his first appearance this season until July 17. He had been out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Reds brought him up to early. After a couple of rough outings in late July he was sent to the minors to do more rehab work. His mechanics were off resulting in 27 walks in 35 innings. His velocity was there, but location was missing.
Volquez got straighten out at Single A Dayton allowing two earned runs in 13 innings with 19 strikeouts and only four walks. Volquez is a more confident pitcher now and his mechanics are right. Talent was never the question. In his last two starts - facing Pittsburgh and Arizona - Volquez has given up three earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. During this span, Volquez has yielded just seven hits and has a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Volquez should be strong. He threw just 85 pitches in his last outing this past Thursday.
This is what Reds manager Dusty Baker said recently about Volquez: "He's throwing it as well as anybody we have right now."
Volquez can keep this going against a listless Brewers squad that is mixing youth with veterans as they look to 2011. The Brewers have scored just 23 runs in their last 10 games. If you take out an 8-6 game against Houston, the Brewers have scored 15 runs in their last nine games.
The Reds love to hit at Miller Park. They've scored 29 runs in their first four games at Miller Park this season.
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Cincinnati Reds -130
KELSO
25 Units Los Angeles Dodgers -120
15 Units Chicago Cubs +110
10 Units Oakland Athletics -145