Jeff Benton
15 DIME CINCINNATI REDS
5 DIME NEW YORK YANKEES -1½
REDS
Way too many factors working in Cincinnati’s favor going into this contest in Milwaukee. Let’s count them out in no particular order:
1) With their 5-2 win over the Brewers last night – coupled with the Cardinals’ 4-0 loss in Florida – the Reds have lowered their magic number to six, meaning all they need is a combanation of six wins or six St. Louis losses to end a lengthy playoff drought. Thus you know the Reds are bringing a focused effort with their A lineup tonight
2) Although this has been a less than ideal month of September for Cincinnati (6-10 last 16 games, including 2-9 on the road), the Reds have found the perfect medicine in Milwaukee. They’ve won eight of nine meetings against their division rivals this season, and going back to last summer, Cincinnati is 12-1 against the Brewers, including 6-1 at Miller Park
3) Although Edinson Volquez has struggled since rejoining the Reds rotation in late July – he missed the first four months of the season while recovering from arm surgery – Cincinnati is 7-3 in his 10 starts this season, and it is 17-4 in his last 21 starts on the road! And even though Volquez has a 6.84 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers, the Reds are 4-1 in those five games, including 4-0 in Milwaukee.
4) The Brewers are handing the ball to right-hander Dave Bush, whom you just cannot trust at all. He gave up six runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings in his last start on Wednesday at Houston, and even though the Brewers rallied for an 8-6 win, it doesn’t change the fact that Bush is 3-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break, with opposing hitters batting .300 in those 12 games.
5) Finally, Bush has been a mess against the Reds in his career, going 2-4 with a 7.07 ERA in 12 starts. In those dozen contests, he’s given up 49 earned runs, 76 hits (10 homers) and 27 walks in 62 1/3 innings, and the Reds are hitting .305 against him. Milwaukee’s record in Bush’s last nine starts against Cincy: 2-7.
One last point about Bush: As noted above, the Brewers prevailed in Bush’s start against Houston. Well, Bush has made 15 straight starts since June 30, and not once during this stretch has Milwaukee scored consecutive victiories.
Additionally, the Brewers are in funks of 16-35 when Bush pitches as an underdog, 1-7 when Bush is a home pup, and 5-12 versus winning teams. The Reds are on positive streaks of 45-22 as a favorite (7-1 last eight as a road chalk), 37-18 against N.L. Central foes and 74-29 against opponents with a losing record.
YANKEES -1½
Don’t trust Tampa Bay starting pitcher James Shields one bit in this game. Shields has served up more home runs than any pitcher in baseball (32, including 19 on the road), and now he’s pitching in a ballpark that’s extremely susceptible to the long ball against a team that’s hit the third-most homers in all of baseball (New York has gone deep 184 times in 150 games).
True, Shields controlled the Yankees in his most recent start, allowing just a run while scattering eight hits and two walks in 6 1/3 innings, with Tampa prevailing 4-3 at home. And true, Shields has been solid in five starts against New York this season (2-0, 2.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). But three of those games were at home; in two starts at Yankee Stadium, he’s got a 4.05 ERA, giving up three long balls in 13 1/3 innings. Throw in five starts at the old Yankee Stadium, and Shields has a 5.62 ERA and has served up eight gopher balls in 41 2/3 innings pitching in the Bronx. What’s more, the Rays are just 4-10 in Shields’ 14 career starts against the Yanekes.
The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because Yankees right-hander Phil Hughes has been struggling in the second half of the season (5-6, 5.37 ERA since the All-Star break, compared with 11-2 with a 3.65 ERA previously) and he hasn’t fared very well in his two outings against the Rays (0-2, 4.97 ERA). However, Tampa is batting just .213 against Hughes this year, and Hughes has been much better at home (3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) than on the road (4.88 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
As for the run-line aspect to this play, it’s simple to explain: When the Yankees win, they tend to do so convilcingly. Of their 90 victories, 72 have been by multiple runs. And of their 18 wins with Hughes starting, 17 have covered the run line.
Finally, the home team has taken control of this rivalry lately, winning seven of the last 10 meetings, with New York going 3-1 at home and playing 27 runs in those four games.
Andrew Powers
BASEBALL POWER PLAY KILLER CHALK EATER
Detroit w/Galarraga -160
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units San Fran -115
1 Unit Houston -103
1 Unit Minnesota -146
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
INSIDE LATE STEAM MLB HOME TIME BOMB WINNER
Colorado w/De La Rosa -137
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
ULTIMATE EXPERTS MLB MONEY LINE MASSACRE
Oakland w/Cahill -149
Brandon Lang
San Francisco -115
Seabass
100* Dodgers
100* Blue Jays
50* Indians
50* Cards
50* Rockies
200* Steam Reds
Bill Marzano
Rockies at Diamondbacks
Pick: Rockies
I really like the Colorado Rockies in this game vs the Arizona Diamondbacks...the Rockies are simply on fire and J.De La Rosa is really pitching well...J.Saunders has not pitched well since coming to the NL and I look for the hot Rockies bats to light him up...the Snakes have lost 13 of their last 17 games...I really like the Rockies here.
Bob BalfeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Philadelphia has been on fire this month and a win tonight will really put them in the driver seat to win the NL East. Roy Halladay against Mike Minor is a huge advantage for the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to get another big home win tonight. Take the Phillies -1.5.
The Duke's SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Houston (+100) for 2.5 UnitsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Astros are a on a blistering 20-8 tear and we'll ride them here. J.A. Happ,who got rocked in the 1st inning of his last start before settling down, should get back on track vs the struggling Nationals. Happ is 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 2 starts and 6 relief appearances vs Washington.This month, Washington is batting an anemic .197 vs lefties. On the other hand, John Lannan is the only Washington starter that is pitching well; however, he is just 1-12 in team starts on Tuesday, 3-9 on 5 days of rest, and doesn't have the run support from the struggling lineup. Washington is a dismal 14-34 in game 2 of a series. We'll look for the Astros to win their 5th straight in this series.
Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Colorado Rockies -150FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
When the Rockies send Jorge De La Rosa to the mound against the Diamondbacks in Arizona this evening they will do so knowing he is in commanding KW form with three walks and 21 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 5-0 in his last five team starts and 11-0 in his last 11 team starts during the month of September. With Del La Rosa 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last four starts against the D'Backs, we'll back him and the Rockies here this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on Colorado.
Rocketman FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
3* Houston +100FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Houston is 73-77 overall this year while Washington comes in with a 62-88 overall record on the season. Houston is 70-55 last 3 years and 27-14 this year against left handed starters. Washington is 2-9 this year at home when the money line is -100 to -125. Houston has won 6 of their last 8 games overall this year. Washington has lost 10 of their last 12 games overall including 4 in a row. JA Happ is 6-2 with a 3.24 ERA overall this year, 3-2 on the road and 1-0 his last 3 starts. Houston has won 4 of 5 meetings with Washington this year. Happ is 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA overall vs Washington since 1997. We'll play Houston for 3 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Houston -105FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Astros have been big money makers for us in recent weeks, including an Oddsmaker Mismatch play last Monday over the Brewers when the simply weren't favored by enough! Such is the case again in the Nation's Capital as they continue a four-game set against the last place Nationals. Houston won last night's series opener, 8-2, due in no large part to a seven-run 5th inning. The team has now won six of its last eight and 20 of 28 since August 22nd. Home field advantage is non-existent for Washington as last night's crowd of 10,999 (announced) was the franchise's lowest since relocating from Montreal. The Astros give the ball to JA Happ tonight and he has been simply sensational in road starts the last two seasons when the oddsmakers have him priced between -125 and +125, turning in a perfect 8-0 team start record. Happ is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his last seven starts overall and the lefty is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two career starts and six relief appearances vs. Washington. Counterpart John Lannan has pitched well since rejoining the rotation last month, but has lost his last two starts vs. Houston. The Astros have been money makers vs. southpaws (+$1990) this season, going 27-14 overall (avg 1/2 run per game more than season avg). Washington has been terrible of late in dropping 10 of 12 games and is 9-22 L3 seasons revenging a loss as a home favorite. Houston is our MLB Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
6* Minnesota -150
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Fausto Carmona gets the call for the visitors; Carmona's season can best be described as: "inconsistent".
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The last time he faced the Twins, he pitched a complete game shutout; he's coming off a 3-2 win in his last outing, however it's important to point out that he went six straight games without a victory.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
And Cleveland really struggles in this spot; just 36-53 (-3 units) after a loss; 45-61 (-6.2 units) vs. right-handed starters.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
In the other dugout: Scott Baker heads to the hill for the home side; Baker returns to the lineup and is 12-9 with a 4.60 ERA on the year.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Minnesota is 13-3 its last 16 overall; also 8-2 its last 10 in front of the home town crowd.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Bottom line: This is a big game for the Twins; with a win and a White Sox loss Tuesday, the Twins can become the first team in the majors to clinch a postseason berth.
Paul Leiner
50* Reds/Brewers Over 9
25* Giants -120