ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Seattle Mariners -115
POWER PLAY WINS
Minnesota Twins
Jeff Benton
40 Dime MLB Mismatch of the Year NY Yankees -1½
I know Toronto has more than held its own against the defending champs so far this season, improving to 9-7 in the season series after last night’s 7-5 victory. However, not once in these 16 games have the Blue Jays had to face New York ace CC Sabathia. More importantly, not once in these 16 games have the Blue Jays had to face a pissed-off CC Sabathia.
The hefty lefty got lit up like a bong five days ago, suraendering seven runs, 10 hits and three walks in just 5 1/3 innings against the Rays, falling 10-3. Sabathia has now dropped three of his last four starts, and you KNOW he’s going to take the mound for his final regular-season start determined to get back on track. That he’s facing the Blue Jays makes it a near certainty that he WILL get back on track.
Why is that? Well, consider the following:
Sabathia is 8-3 in 11 career starts against the Blue Jays, posting a 3.33 ERA while allowing barely one baserunner per inning (58 hits and 21 walks in 75 2/3 innings). He’s faced the Blue Jays once in each of the last three years, going 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA (those three wins were by a combined score of 21-7).
Sabathia is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA in five starts at the Rogers Centre (so clearly, he’s comfortable on the mound in Toronto).
The Blue Jays are batting just .212 overall against Sabathia, including .178 at home. Even more startling, Toronto comes into this game batting .213 on the season against left-handed pitching (.198 in the last 10 games). And again – not once in their first 156 games this season have they been foriced to face THIS left-handed pitcher!
As for the run-line aspect of this play, there’s this: Of the 16 Blue Jays-Yankees meetings this year, 12 have been decided by more than one run, including the last six in a row; and New York has won 22 of Sabathia’s 33 starts this season – including 15 of the last 17 – with 20 of those 22 wins being by multiple runs.
Finally, Sabathia has been a big-time bounce-back pitcher this season, posing a 1.86 ERA in six games following a start in which he allowed at least five runs. And in five of those six particular starts, Sabathia gave up a comblned four runs in 37 2/3 innings (0.96 ERA).
If all that isn’t enough to love New York tonight, this should be: While the Yankees are handing the ball to one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball – a guy who has won 75 games the last four years – the Blue Jays are sending rookie Kyle Drabek to the mound for just his third big league start. His first two haven’t gone well (0-2, 4.91 ERA).
The Yankees, who remain in a dogfight with Tampa for the A.L. East crown, roll and roll BIG – 9-2 win for the visitors.
The Duke's Sports
Philadelphia (-125) for 2 Units
Hard not to go with Philadelphia here even though they clinched the NL East last night. Roy Oswalt is on top of his game (7-0 1.26 ERA last 7 starts) and the bullpen has been solid over the last few weeks (2.36 ERA). The Phillies are at their best playing teams with a winning home record at 17-5, and they are surely strong in Washington at 10-4. As for Washington, Jason Marquis has been hammered by Philly this year to the tune of 0-4 with a lofty 12.51 ERA. And the Nationals do not fare well as a home do in this price range at 9-26. Philadelphia the call.
Bob Balfe
Washington Nationals +120
The Phillies clinched the NL East last night and, after a night of partying and lots of players getting the night off, I do not see how they will be up for this game against a Nationals team that is showing promise down the stretch. Washington has a good pitcher on the mound and will want revenge from last night's beatdown. This game has no meaning for the Phillies. Take the Nationals.
Tony George
Minnesota -125
I like going against my hometown team in this spot, as I know Sean O'Sullivan is simply just deplorable as a starter for KC. He is 3-6 on the year, with a season long ERA of over 6 and in his last 3 starts he has managed a 8.31 ERA his last 3 and last time he faced the Twins, who are going after the best record here in the AL, he was lit up for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings on the mound. Nick Blackburn is in solid form, under a 2 ERA his last 3, and Minny owns this series at 36-16 their last 52 games. KC has thrown it in boys, Minny rolls. KC has only won 17 out of their last 52 as a dog. Play 2 Units on Minnesota
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Twins
Lenny Del Genio
Detroit -135
Two hot AL Central teams meet tonight in Cleveland when the visiting Tigers seek revenge for a 6-3 loss in yesterday's series opener. The Indians have been really up and down over the last two weeks, first winning three straight, then losing five straight and most recently winning four in a row. Detroit came into last night's contest having won eight of its last nine and tonight send out the sensational Max Scherzer, who is finally living up to his advanced potential. Post-All Star Break, Scherzer has been virtually unhittable with a 2.23 ERA and 1.018 WHIP and he's allowed two runs or less in nine of his previous eleven starts. Seven of those starts, he's allowed one run or less. That includes a 5-2 win over Cleveland last month where he gave up just one earned run off four hits. Cleveland counters with Mitch Talbot, whose lost nine of his previous ten starts here at Progressive Field and has a 10.80 ERA his last two outings. Indians are 36-56 when hosting a team with a winning record this year. Detroit is our 20* Pitching Mismatch of the Month.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Colorado -140
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Hiroki Kuroda heads to the hill for the visitors; Kuroda has looked sharp, however he's struggled against the Rockies and I believe he'll once again have difficulty this evening; he is 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA in four starts against Colorado this season.
And keep in mind that the Dodgers are just 7-15 their last 22 overall; also just 5-11 their last 16 on the road.
In the other dugout: Jeff Francis gets the nod for the home side; although Francis and Colorado has struggled of late, it's important to note that the Rockies are still 15-7 their last 22 at home; also 41-33 (+2.6 units) after a loss.
Bottom line: There is a very slim chance the Rockies will make the post-season; they'll have to start winning games and I believe that happens this evening.
When taking into account all of the above factors, we are indeed getting excellent value on the home side;
Mike Lineback
4* Parlay Yankees & Giants
Black Widow
Phillies
Dodgers
Diamondbacks