Mr. East
Wednesday Line Crusher
3 Units KC Royals -1.5
Wednesday Play Of The Day
3 Units Blue Jays / A's Under 8
Billy Coleman
Cincinnati -135
Paul Leiner
100* Mets -105
50* Royals -110
25* Tex/TB Over 9
KIKI SPORTS
3 Units Cincy -135
1 Unit San Fran -110
1 Unit White Sox +135
Power Play Wins
Atlanta -1.5
Jeff Benton
25 DIME OAKLAND A’S
5 DIME PITTSBURGH PIRATES
A’s
If you were with me two weekends ago, this play shouldn’t surprise you in the least. Two Saturday’s ago, I played Oakland and Gio Gonzalez (today’s starter) over the first-place Rangers, and the A’s rolled to a 6-2 victory. The next day, I took the A’s over the Rangers again and scored a 3-2 win. The common thread woven between those two selections: Both games were played in broad daylight.
Why is that important? Because Oakland owns baseball’s best record day-game record in all of baseball – we’re talking 28-12, or 70 percent winners. The next-best daytime record belongs to the Yankees at 27-16 (63 percent).
A big reason for Oakland’s success in day games has been none other than the aforementioned Gonzalez. He’s 6-1 with a 2.10 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in eight daytime starts, with the A’s also prevailing in his one no decision (so they’re 7-1 in his day games). In those eight contests, Gonzalez has allowed just 37 hits (including only two home runs) and 15 walks with 38 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings.
One of Gonzalez’s day wins came against the Blue Jays on May 1, when he yielded two runs on three hits and two walks with eight Ks in 5 2/3 innings, picking up a 4-3 victory. And that win came on the road, where Gonzalez has been far less effective (4-5, 3.99 ERA) than he’s been at home (6-3, 2.94 ERA, including just four home runs allowed in 70 1/3 innings). The fact Gonzalez is a lefty is also huge, as the Jays have been horrific against southpaws this season (.217 team average).
In addition to dominating day games, the A’s are 35-25 at home following Tuesday’s rout of Toronto. And today, they face Toronto lefty Marc Rzepczynski, who is making just his fourth big-league start of this season. His last one was fantastic (seven shutout innings of two-hit ball at the Angels on Friday, winning 3-0). However, his first two were anything but (combined nine runs allowed in 10 1/3 innings). That includes a 5-2 loss at Kansas City on July 21, his worst outing of the three. When was that contest played? During the day. In fact, in his brief major-league career, Rzepczynski is 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA in six daytime appearances (five starts).
Throw in the fact the A’s have a “homer” umpire calling balls and strikes – home teams are 15-8 when Alfonso Marquez is behind the dish, including 4-0 in the last four – and I’m all over Oakland at this dirt-cheap price.
Pirates
Let’s play a little mystery game:
Pitcher A has given up 16 runs in his last four starts covering 24 1/3 innings for a 5.92 ERA. His team lost three of those four games, going 0-3 on the road.
Pitcher B is coming off consecutive dominating starts, allowing two runs (one earned) on eight hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings, and over his last nine contests he’s given up just 11 earned runs in 45 1/3 innings, which equates to a 2.18 ERA.
Pitcher A’s team is just 3-7 when he toils on the road. Pitcher B’s team is 5-6 when he pitches at home.
Pitcher A lost his only career start to Pitcher B’s team (albeit four years ago). Pitcher B shutout Pitcher A’s team last year, allowing two hits and one walk in seven innings of an 8-0 home victory.
Now what if I told you that Pitcher A is a minus-180 favorite today? You’d think that’s insane, right? Well, it’s true, and the reason is that Pitcher A is Florida’s Cy Young candidate Josh Johnson, while Pitcher B is Pittsburgh’s unheralded Ross Ohlendorf.
The truth is that Johnson has hit a late-season wall (you knew it was coming eventually), while Ohlendorf is finally coming into his own. With the way these two guys are going and if you’re going to give this kind of take-back – especially when the Pirates have won six of nine overall against Florida, including five of six in Pittsburgh – I’m more than willing to take my shot. One final point: Pittsburgh’s home record (27-31) is nearly identical to Florida’s road record (29-30).
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
100* Play Florida (-180) over Pittsburgh
Florida pitcher, Josh Johnson has won 9 of the last 10 games when pitching on a Wednesday and he is 10-5 in all games this season with an ERA of 2.27. Pittsburgh has lost 121 of the last 168 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and pitcher, Ross Ohlendorf is 1-9 in all starts this season.
50* Play St. Louis (-220) over Milwaukee
St. Louis pitcher, Adam Wainwright has won 8 consecutive games as a favorite of -200 or higher and he has also won 15 of the last 18 games when pitching on a Wednesday. Adam Wainwright is 11-0 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.22 and he is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.39.
50* Play Atlanta (-220) over Washington
Atlanta pitcher, Tim Hudson has won 9 of the last 10 home games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has also won 4 of the last 5 games as a favorite of -200 or higher. Tim Hudson is 10-1 vs. Washington over his career with an ERA of 1.49 and he is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.41.
TEDDY COVERS
NY Yankees -1.5
King Creole
2* Twins -149
Last night, it was a Jim Thome walk-off homer in the 10th inning that brought home the bacon for the HOT Minnesota Twins. And let's face it, the Chicago White Sox are Minnesota's 'bitches'! The Twins have really gotten into the Pale Hose's heads in the 2010 season. Minnesota is 9-4 vs Chicago this year... and 15-5 dating back to last year. Chicago may have peaked a couple of weeks ago. They've lost 3 in a row... four out of 5... and are 2-7 in their last 9 games. All sharps ALSO know that Chicago Can't hot the lefties. They are 3-8 on the road vs southpaws this year... and are hitting only .222 in their last 10 vs lefties. Meanwhile, the Twins come in nice and HOT. They've won FIVE in a row... eight of their last nine... and are 17-4 since late July! Also hitting .300 vs righties in their last 10 games.
If there is a time to fade Gavin Floyd of the Sox, it's right NOW. He just pitched against the Twins 6 days ago and got rocked. he went 6 innings... allowed 13 hits and walks.... 6 earned runs... and threw 125 pitches. In two starts vs the Twins this year, his ERA is 5.50. And in fact, he is 1-4 vs them in the last 2+ seasons. His counterpart (Francisco Liriano) is in fantastic 'play ON' form. He was the opposing starter in that last game vs the Sox (6 days ago) and won 6 to 1. It was his 5th win in his last 6 starts overall. His ERA during this 6-start span is only 1.61. Liriano has faced Chicago three times already this season. And he is a PERFECT 3-0 vs them (2.79 ERA).
2* Reds -118
Game Two features another HOT team in the Cincinnati Reds. After getting swept by the Cardinals, the Reds have ripped off 4 wins in row.. including last night's 6-2 win in Game One of this series out west. They are 12-4 in their last 16 games overall. And this is an opponent (much like Chicago is for Minnesota) that they have dominated. The Reds are 14-3 in their last 17 meetings vs the D'Backs (6-1 last 2 years). Arizona comes in with a 1-4 record in their last 5 games. The D'Backs are hitting only .230 in their last 10 games overall. At home vs righties, Arizona is 1-6 in their last 7 games. Also 4-11 at home vs WINNING teams... and 18-38 after allowing 5 or more runs.
Edinson Volquez come in with ultra-sharp form. And he's in his most profitable situation (18-4 last 22 road starts dating back to last year). Since coming off the DL, he's gone 5-1. And in his last three starts (3-0), his ERA is only 1.53. He allowed only ONE earned run in EACH of those last three starts. In his career, he's a perfect 1-0 vs Arizona. Also 5-1 in Game Two of a series... and 5-1 vs LOSING Teams. His counterpart (Rodrigo Lopez) enters tonight's game in poor form (1-5 last 6 starts)... and off his WORST outing of the season (5 IP / 10 walks + hits / 7 earned runs allowed in a 8-4 loss). In his last three starts, Lopez' ERA is a whopping 6.88. He's lost TWICE as many starts this season at hight than he has won.
Dave Cokin
Reds
MTi Sports
4* Oakland A's
4* Philadelphia Phillies
KELSO
10 units Colorado Rockies/LA Dodgers OVER 7
15 units SF Giants +100
25 units Tampa Bay Rays -155
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 units Oakland A's -125
4 units Cincinnati Reds -125
NSA
20* NY Yankees -180
20* Atlanta/Washington Under 7.5
20* Minnesota Twins -145
LENNY DEL GENIO
AL CENTRAL GAME OF THE YEAR
TWINS -140
The Twins beat the White Sox in dramatic fashion last night when Thome hit a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 10th inning for a 7-6 win. That victory extended the Twins winning streak to five straight and Minnesota has now won eight of the last nine games. The Sox are reeling having dropped three straight and seven of their last nine games. The Twins are tearing the cover off the baseball as they are scoring 5.1 runs per game and hitting .293 over their past seven games. Against these weak division opponents the Twins are averaging just under 6 runs per game. The pitching matchup is a quick rematch of last Thursday’s game when Floyd and Liriano faced off in Chicago. It wasn’t much off a game as the Twins beat the Sox 6-1. Floyd was beat up by these Twins allowing ten hits and three walks which amounted to all of the six earned runs Minnesota put up. Liriano pitched very well allowing only seven hits and one earned run in 5 2/3 innings. The White Sox can’t stand facing Liriano as they have lost all three times against him this season. Overall, Minnesota has owned these White Sox over the past three seasons winning 20 of the 25 games. The White Sox were hoping to move up on the Twins in the division race but after last night’s loss have fallen 4 games back. The Twins are a mid-range favorite in this game tonight and they have been very tough in this situation all season posting a home record of 19-3 when favored by $125 to $150. We’re backing the Twins!