Tony George
Kansas City -110
Cheap number here for the Royals who are usually a go against team for me, but at home, off a win, with Chen on the hill, who is in good form, I will take them at this number. Cleveland has issues with southpaws, and Chen is a solid lefty here with an ERA of 3.18 his last 3 mound appearances, and while he does not have great home records, KCs bullpen is in far better form right now than the Tribe. KC has won 6 out of their last 8 home games against better teams than Cleveland, who they beat in a tight one last night, a game I was at in person. Carmonas for the Tribe has owned KC as of late and it was mentioned in the local media that the Royals team wants a win over him, he is 7-2 his last 9 against them, something that is well known. Play 1 Unit on Kansas City
Ben Burns
9* Rockies / Dodgers Under 7
Yesterday's series opener stayed below the total, a 6-0 victory for the Dodgers. Five of seven series meetings have now fallen below the total and I expect another relatively low-scoring affair this evening.
Kuroda is off back to back gems. Unfortunately, for him, he's only got an 0-1 record to show for it. Two starts ago, in his most recent home start, he allowed only three hits and two runs through seven complete innings. He had 8 K's and only one walk. The Dodgers won by a score of 3-2 but Kuroda didn't factor in the decision.
Last time out was even more frustrating. Kuroda allowed only one run on four hits, again pitching seven complete innings. Only his team didn't provide him with any run support and he suffered a hard luck 1-0 loss.
That happens to all pitchers occasionally. However, its been happening to Kuroda more frequently than normal. In fact, thats the fifth time that that the Dodgers have been shut out when he's pitched. When being told that he's now suffered five shutout losses, he was quoted as saying: "I didn't really count but it's really disappointing when you say it's the fifth one."
Given what Hammel has done vs. the Dodgers, Kuroda may not see much run support here either. Hammel has a 2.25 ERA in five career appearances, two of them starts, against the Dodgers. As a starter he has a 1.80 ERA vs. the Dodgers. The UNDER was 2-0 in those games. His lone start here at LA came last July. that game finished with a score of 1-0. Hammel allowed only five hits (0 walks) and one run, through eight complete innings, but was outdueled by Kershaw.
Given what the Rockies have done here at LA, Hammel, who lost 4-0 last time out, may not see much run support here either. Indeed, Colorado hasn't scored a run in its last 21 innings here at Dodger Stadium. They've now been shut out in three of their last four road games. They're hitting only .232 on the road for the season, averaging a mere 3.7 runs. Over their last seven games, the Rockies are now hitting only .205, averaging three runs.
Some teams respond to a shutout loss with a big offensive outburst. Historically, the Rockies have not been one of them. In fact, the UNDER is a profitable 60-35-9 (63%) when they were blanked in their previous game. I expect those stats to improve here.
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland -110
When the Tribe sends All-Star Fausto Carmona to the mound against Bruce Chen in Kansas City this evening, Cleveland will have all the best of the hitting and pitching in this contest. That's because Carmona's 3.30 road ERA and his 1.26 road WHIP are actually better than his 4.26 home ERA and his 1.41 home ERA this season. On the flip side, those numbers are also superior to Chen's whose 5.40 home ERA and 1.77 home WHIP are substantially worse than this 4.05 road ERA and 1.15 road WHIP this campaign. In addition, Chen is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his MLB career team starts against the Indians. With Carmona 7-3 in his career team starts in this series, and Kansas City have scored four or less runs in each of its last 13 games (prior to last night), look for the Tribe to scalp the Royals here tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on Cleveland.
Tim Trushel
20* AL GOY - Baltimore
The Duke's Sports
San Francisco Over (9) for 2 Units
Tonight's two starters appear vulnerable to getting hit. Matt Cain, who is on a nice run, sports a lofty 7.20 ERA in 4 starts vs the Phillies. The Phillies' lineup is batting a healthy .300 this month vs righties and should jump on Cain, who is 6-1 O/U vs the NLE. On the other hand, Joe Blanton has not had an easy time with SF sporting a 5.08 ERA vs them. Blanton, who usually is the beneficiary of good run support, is 19-6-2 O/U in his last 27 overall and 7-0-1 O/U in his last 8 home starts. The SF lineup is patient and can jump on Blanton early. SF is 4-1 O/U vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 ERA. And the Phillies' bullpen, which sports a bloated 5.88 ERA this month, most assuredly will make an appearance. "Over" the call.
Bob Balfe
Minnesota Twins -153
This game is all about momentum. Thome hit a 2-run shot to win the game last night and extended Minnesota's win streak to five straight, resulting in a 3-game slide for Chicago. These teams play tight games when they face each other, but legs have to feel a little bit fresher on the Twins side. Take Minnesota.
DONNIE BLACK
Houston Astros Under 7
FRANK PATRON
Arizona Diamondbacks
ANDREW LANGE
Oakland A's Under
Craig Davis
75 Dime Baltimore Orioles
Scott Delaney
50 Dime Phillies
Scott Rickenbach
10* New York / Detroit Over
As a road dog of +175 to +200 the last three years, the Tigers are 5-1 (83%) to the over. Detroit was held to just two runs yesterday but they are still a respectable 6-4 to the over in their last ten games. The Yankees did get six runs on nine hits yesterday and the Tigers have now given up an average of nearly 10 hits per game over their last dozen games. Don’t look for those numbers to improve with Jeremy Bonderman taking the mound for the Tigers this evening. The Detroit right-hander is 3-8 in his career against the Yankees and has compiled a 5.29 ERA in those outings. Note that Bonderman has struggled against left-handed hitters throughout his career and the Yankees are loaded with switch-hitters plus have a few big left-handed bats and that makes this a match-up nightmare for Bonderman even if Alex Rodriguez sits outs again tonight. Bonderman is 2-4 on the road this season and he’s compiled a 6.45 ERA in his nine starts away from home. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in seven of his last nine starts. The only good news for Tigers fans today is that they should enjoy much more success at the plate against Dustin Moseley than they did against C.C. Sabathia last night.
Moseley of the Yankees is certainly fading fast after his first start with the Yankees was a success. In his last three starts Moseley has allowed 11 earned runs on 23 hits in 18 innings of work. Four of the hits have been homers and note that Moseley has a 4.85 ERA against the Tigers in his career. He’s mostly been used as a reliever in his career. When used as a starter in 2008 with the Angels, Moseley compiled a 6.79 ERA and was hammered at a .332 clip. Then, last season Moseley only pitched in three games and he was rocked at a .323 clip. In his career he’s been hit at a .304 clip and we’re going to take advantage of another opportunity where, in our opinion, a pitcher that is better slated to be a reliever is once again being used as a starter. Look for him to get rocked as his post All-Star break struggles (5.94 ERA in his career) continue here. The Yankees are 21-10 to the over when the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs in a home game this season. This will be Moseley’s fifth start this season. The last one, even though he struggled, ended up being the first under that has resulted in any of his starts this season. Once again we look for him to struggle here but, this time, the “over trend” resumes. As for Bonderman of the Tigers, note that Detroit is 7-1 to the over in his last 8 starts! Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as a *10* Top Play selection
Mike Neri Sports
1 Unit Minnesota -150
Mike Lineback
4* Philadelphia
PHIL MAXWELL
NL RUN LINE GAME OF YEAR
ATLANTA -1.5