Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, August 25,2010

Paul Leiner

100* Braves -125

50* Yanks -135

25* Rangers -150

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Tampa Bay (+110) over LA Angels

Tampa pitcher, Jeff Niemann has won 9 of the last 10 road games and he is 10-3 in all starts with an ERA of 3.12. Los Angeles pitcher, Dan Haren has lost 8 of the last 10 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he has also lost 21 of the last 29 games when the line is between +125 to -125.

50* Play Toronto (+125) over New York Yankees

Toronto pitcher, Brett Cecil has won 7 of the last 8 games vs. division opponents and he has also won 12 of the last 16 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. New York pitcher, Phil Hughes has lost 5 of the last 6 road games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he has also lost 3 of the last 4 games coming off a game where he did not walk a batter.

David Malinsky

4* TORONTO over N.Y. YANKEES

We don’t think they have the right favorite in this one; the Blue Jays do not give up anything anywhere to the Yankees in this matchup, and we rarely find a home underdog when that is the case.

We have written the Phil Hughes tale often this season – he has actually been a much more effective pitcher on the road than at home, where the reachable seats of Yankee Stadium make his fly ball tendencies problematic. But this is not a true “road” setting for Hughes, with the Rogers Centre expected to have the roof open tonight, making it a true danger zone for a fly baller, against a team that leads the Majors in HR’s by a full 22 over the #2 side. Not having worked beyond the 6th inning since the All Star break, there is also a stamina issue as well for Hughes, so with the Blue Jays getting their third look at him since the 4th of July, we could see the Yankee middle relief corps forced to play a big role.

Meanwhile Brett Cecil got a huge stamp of approval from us in his last outing at Boston, where he controlled the Red Sox over 6.2 strong innings, something that is not easy for a left-hander to do in Fenway. Here is the gist – it is not uncommon for a savvy left-hander to be tough to read on the first pass. It is what happens on the second and third looks that tell us much about how real his stuff is. Cecil has had four such games against the A.L. East powers Red Sox, Rays and these Yankees, the three best teams in the sport, and has worked to a sparkling 4-0/1.69 in the process. We can not over-state how impressive that is. Now his confidence is right where we want it to be, and without Alex Rodriguez, and potentially Nick Swisher as well tonight, the Yankees are not built all that well in terms of beating quality lefties on the road right now.

Power Play Wins

St. Louis Cardinals -160

Ben Burns

Day Game of Week - LA Angels

Total - SF Under

Chris Jordan

200♦ Red Sox -1.5 Game 1

Larry Ness

10* AL Run-Line GOY White Sox -1.5

Master Sports

4* SF Under

Tim Trushel

20* SF Under

Matt Fargo

9* Baltimore Orioles +168

The White Sox won the series opener last night by way of a three-run home run in the seventh inning that broke a 2-2 tie and the Orioles, despite a ninth-inning rally, could not come back. This is a big series for Chicago as it tries to keep pace with the Twins in the American League Central and the victory coupled with the Minnesota loss in Texas pulled the White Sox to within 3.5 games in the division. These ‘must win’ games sets up tremendous value on the other side. Baltimore is having a tough season with the worst record in the American League but it has actually been a pretty solid month. Baltimore is 12-9 under new manager Buck Showalter so it has been playing much better with a new skipper in the dugout. Both the offense and the pitching have been up and down and getting the two together is the key and we should see that tonight. The Orioles send Brian Matusz to the mound and they remain very high on this rookie. Matusz tossed eight scoreless innings against Texas on Thursday to notch his fifth win of the season and he has now thrown three quality outings in his last four starts. He has posted a 2.63 ERA over that stretch and while the good starts have been at home, the Orioles have performed better in his 12 road starts, going 5-7 and profiting overall. He faced the White Sox just over two weeks ago and allowed one run in six innings. He will be opposed by Mark Buehrle who has been pitching excellent of late and that also adds to the value of this play. He has tossed four straight quality outings as well as 12 in his last 13 trips to the hill. While that may seem like a streak we do not want to play against, it actually sets up in our favor as Buehrle has been better on the road than at home as he has a 4.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 11 home starts. Baltimore also falls into a solid underdog situation. Play on American League teams that are hitting .265 or worse and starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.20 going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better. This situation is 82-53 (60.7 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 9* Baltimore Orioles.

MR EAST

3 Units NY Mets -1.5 +170

Teddy Covers

San Francisco

Oakland

MIKE LINEBACK

4* POD - SF Giants

Coach K

3* Rays -105

2* Reds +102

2* Reds/Giants Under 8