Sam Clayton
25 dime - Marlins Runline
Love this spot for the Fish today coming off a low scoring, one-run win last night against the Mets, who let's face it, have fallen into the Springfield Mystery Spot with Ozzie Smith. After all the hype in the offseason and the aesthetics of the new Citi Field, the Metropolitans yet again found a way to screw things up. Obviously, they never expected that half of their starting lineup would end up on the shelf, but it happened and this sad sack team is going to catch a beating tonight in southern Florida.
The Mets' depleted lineup -- one that features Jeff Franceour and Fernando Tatis hitting fourth and fifth respectively -- continues to struggle and things don't get any easier today against one of the National League's best young arms. Leading the charge for the Fish is ace Josh Johnson (12-3, 2.99) and the 25-year-old right-hander has blossomed into one of the best pitchers in baseball. Johnson is 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA at home and the Marlins have won 18 of his 24 starts this season. He has never lost against the Mets in his career, beating them six times and posting a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over eight starts. Johnson hasn't dropped a decision at Land Shark Stadium since May 9 and he's allowed more than three runs only three times in 24 starts. Mike Pelfrey continues to falter on the highway as he's 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA his last three road starts. The Marlins also have Pelfrey's number, he's 1-5 lifetime with a 5.36 ERA against Florida.
These teams are going in two completely different directions what with the Marlins playing for Wild Card contention and the Mets almost 17 games back out east. Florida has won 6 of their last 8 games at home and they are notorious for their strong play at Land Shark Stadium. New York has dropped four straight and 5 of their last 7 games, and I have a hard time believing they'll have the motivation or the offense to keep this one close. It might be a popular pick, but it's the right pick. Play the Fish.
As usual I gotta head out for work guys so if you see something don't be afraid to post it.