JEFFERSON-SPORTS
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SAN FRANCISCO / ATLANTA UNDER 7.5
Rated Picks
Pirates Over 9 3 units
Philadelphia Phillies +105 3 units
NY Mets +105 2 units
Florida Marlins -1.5 (+120) 3 units
Florida Marlins pts: -150 3 units
LA Angels -1.5 (+135) 3 units
*BP* LA Angels pts: -135 5 units
PowerPlayWins
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St. Louis Cardinals -115
Bob Valentino
30 Dime MLB Mismatch of the Month ...
30 DIME -- FLORIDA MARLINS (Nolasco) over San Diego Padres (Geer)
NOTE: Nolasco and Geer must start this game or this is no "action" ... As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number! Never lay more on a favorite than you have to or take back less than you can on an underdog!
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Florida (-145) over San Diego (TOP MLB PLAY)
San Diego has lost 15 of the last 18 games and they have also lost 31 of the last 39 games when playing on a Wednesday. Josh Geer has lost 12 of the last 18 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is also 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 7.80. Florida has won 24 of the last 39 games as a favorite of -110 or higher and Ricky Nolasco has won 4 of the last 5 games as a favorite of -125 to -175.
100* Play Toronto (-135) over Cleveland (TOP MLB PLAY)
Cleveland has lost 21 of the last 28 games and they have also lost 15 of the last 21 games as an underdog of +125 to +175. Cleveland has lost 44 of the last 71 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and they have also lost 17 of the last 26 games after batting .240 or worse over the last 20 games. Carl Pavano has an ERA of 5.13 in all starts this season and he also has an ERA of 5.45 vs. Toronto over his career.
50* Play Pittsburgh (-110) over Milwaukee (MLB BONUS PLAY)
Milwaukee has lost 20 of the last 31 day games and they have also lost 11 of the last 17 games when playing in the month of July. Paul Maholm has won 13 of the last 15 home games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he has also won 9 of the last 11 home games when the line posted is between -100 to -150.
50* Play Seattle (-125) over Detroit (MLB BONUS PLAY)
Seattle has won 5 of the last 7 games and they have also won 11 of the last 13 road games when the line posted is between -110 to -150. Felix Hernandez has won 9 of the last 10 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has also won 11 of the last 13 games when pitching on a Wednesday. Felix Hernandez is 4-2 vs. Detroit over his career with an ERA of 3.22 and he is also 6-1 in road games this season with an ERA of 1.97.
WNBA Hoops
50* Play Atlanta (+5.5) over Detroit (TOP WNBA PLAY)
Atlanta has covered the spread in 6 consecutive games and they have also covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games when playing their 2nd game in 5 days. Detroit has lost 6 of the last 7 games against the spread vs. division opponents and they have also lost 11 of the last 14 home games against the spread when playing in the month of July.
Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play.
Take the Boston Redsox -120 over the Texas Rangers (Wed @ 8:05pm est).
Clay takes the mound today and he gave up just 1 run in nearly 6 innings worth of work on the road in Toronto. The Redsox went on to win the contest 4-1. Given the series with the Rangers, the Yankees took over first place in the division. I suspect the Redsox will be fired up and looking to bounce-back today with Clay. Buchholz understands that with Wakefield out for some time, he needs to step up. Certainly, he has done that over his last 17 starts as he is 7-3 with a 2.36era in his last 17 games. Clay is comfortable pitching against the Rangers it seems as last year he threw six scoreless innings against them. As the Redsox come off a loss and with Clay pitching well, it sets up for a decent wager on them. The Rangers send Padilla to the mound who was brilliant in his last performance against the Sox in Fenway. Having said that, the Redsox are very good at having success against a pitcher the next time around in the same year. Padilla gave up just 4 hits and 2 run in 7 innings of work in Fenway in his last start against Boston this year. He comes off a shaky start against Minnesota at home, but overall, he has given up 29 hits over his last 18 innings (spanning 3 starts). The Redsox are 12-5 after scoring 2 or less runs in their previous game as well as 11-5 coming off a loss.
igz1 sports
4* Over 8 +100 Florida (Nolasco) vs Florida (Geer)
3* San Francisco +100 (Lincecum)
3* Arizona +185 (Garland)
Stu Feiner
Stu's 1000 Dime Baseball
MARINERS @ TIGERS 7:05 ET
KING FELIX IS HAVING A GREAT YEAR. 10-3 WITH AN ERA OF 2.51 AND HIS TEAM HAS WON 14 OF HIS 19 STARTS. HE HAS BEATEN THE TIGERS THIS YEAR AND IS 4-2 LIFETIME AGAINST THEM. HE IS ALSO 6-1 ON THE ROAD AND IN HIS LAST 23 INNINGS HE IS 2-0 WITH AN ERA OF 2.35. HE WILL GET THE ROAD W TONIGHT. GALARRAGA HAS STRUGGLED 5-8 WITH AN ERA OF 5.09 AND HIS TEAM HAS WON ONLY 8 OF HIS 18 STARTS. HE WILL GET OUT PITCHED TONIGHT. ALL SEATTLE.
MARINERS -135 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION
Stu's 1000 Dime Baseball #2
GIANTS @ BRAVES 7:10 ET
GIANTS PITCHER LINCECUM OWNS ATLANTA. HE HAS BEATEN THEM ALREADY THIS YEAR AND IS 5-0 LIFETIME AGAINST THEM. HE IS ALSO 5-1 ON THE ROAD AND IN HIS LAST 20 INNINGS, HE IS 2-0 WITH AN ERA OF 1.80 AND 27 STRICK OUTS. JURRJENS IS 0-2 LIFETIME AGAINST THE GIANTS AND WILL GET OUT PITCHED TONIGHT.
ALL SAN FRAN HERE.
GIANTS +110 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION 3-2
John Ryan
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LAA Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Kansas City as they host Anaheim set to start at 8:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 84-35 making 47.4 units since 2003. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after 4 or more consecutive wins and with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. Here is a 2nd supporting system that has gone 152-76 making 55.7 units since 2003. Play on home teams stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting a WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts. Two teams obviously heading in opposite directions, but KC has an excellent opportunity to halt their losing streak. Brian Bannister will start and he has been quite impressive over his last several starts. He has posted a 2.41 ERA over his last 3 starts and has also posted a strong 3.66 season ERA. Bannister works in the lower part of the strike zone and as a result has not given up a home run in his last 3 starts and just 4 HR in his last 8 starts. Saunders has given up 8 HR in his last 4 starts and sports a horrid 7.72 ERA in his last starts. Bannister throws FB just 65% of the time and relies on an excellent slider mixing in a curve and change. He throws slider 14% of the time and uses it 19% of the time versus RH batters. The slider tails late and away from RH batters. He uses an under rated change up to LH batters 15% of the time. A pitcher at any level does not want to throw many breaking pitches that ride into the power of a hitter. So, it is very rare at the MLB level to see a RH pitcher throw breaking pitches to LH batters and vice versa. As a result 31% of Bannister's pitches hit in the low and away portion of the strike zone. Take KC.
Smart Money
#904 Philadelphia
KBHoops
5* Philadelphia UNDER 9.5 **POD**
5* NY Yankees UNDER 10.5
5* Colorado UNDER 9.5
5* Oakland UNDER 9
5* LA Dodgers UNDER 8
Lou Panelli
20* St Louis -115 (100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* Dodgers under 8
10* Colorado over 9.5
10* Phillies over 9.5
10* Angels -115
10* Detroit under 8
KEITH FREDRICK
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Angels at Royals
Pick: Angels -120
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This price is going to climb, so get in early while you can. After yesterday's sweep of the Royals (both in games priced as this one is) the Angels are now 9-2 as away favs at this price point, showing me that Scoscia has his team ready to win these games they are supposed to win. Also notable that KC is on 0-8 and 2-10 runs against winning teams, and finally cannot ignore a pitching matchup that shows Saunders 2-0 with a 0.56 career ERA against the Royals in two starts while Bannister allowed 13 hits in 6.2 innings of work in his only career action against the Halos.
Wunderdog
Game: Minnesota at Oakland (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Oakland -1.5 runs +180 (runline) (risk 2 to win 3.6)
Game: Florida at San Diego (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on San Diego +1.5 runs -140 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.9)
Game: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 7 +100 (risk 2 to win 2)
Jeff Benton
20 DIME: DODGERS on the run-line (-1 1/2 runs) vs. Reds (Billingsley over whomever the Reds start)
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NOTE: This play is based on the Dodgers and Billingsley. If the Reds switch pitchers after you make your wager, your wager will be void. But if that happens, I want you to re-bet the game at the same rating, so long as Billingsley starts for L.A.! If Billingsley does NOT start, this will be a "NO PLAY"
Dodgers (-1½ runs)
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Chad Billingsley made the All-Star team this year, but I admit he hasn’t exactly been pitching like an All-Star lately. In fact, he’s coming off his two worst starts of the year, including giving up a season-high six runs in a season-low 1 2/3 innings of Saturday’s 8-1 home loss to Roy Oswalt and the Astros. Yet I don’t hesitate to back the hard-throwing right-hander tonight on the run-line because no pitcher in baseball goes through a 162-game season without hitting a bit of a rough patch. And I’m 100 percent confident that a well-rested Billingsley – who went 9-3 with a 2.72 ERA in his first 14 starts this year – will come back with a huge effort tonight against a Reds squad.
How can I be so confident? Well, for starters, Billingsley and his teammates have absolutely dominated Cincinnati lately. Billingsley has faced the Reds three times in his young career and he’s given up a total of two runs and 15 hits in 18 1/3 innings – a 0.98 ERA – with 19 strikeouts. Last year, he beat Cincinnati twice by scores of 4-1 (home) and 3-1 (road), surrendering just one total run in 13 1/3 innings with 16 Ks against just five walks.
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That Billingsley has owned Cincy isn’t a shock, because every Dodger – hitter and pitcher – owns Cincy. By winning the first two games of this series by scores of 12-3 and 7-5, L.A. has now taken eight straight games against the Reds, the last seven by multiple runs. Going back further, the Dodgers are on an incredible 22-5 run against Cincinnati, and the Reds have now lost 11 straight games in Dodger Stadium dating to July 2005, with the last eight defeats being by more than one run.
Yes, I realize that Reds starter Bronson Arroyo is working on a 16-inning scoreless string, beating the Mets (3-0) and Brewers (4-0) in his last two starts. However, Arroyo has been anything but consistent this season. Despite his last two outings, he’s just 10-8 with a 5.07 ERA), and he’s given up at least five runs in nearly half (nine) of his 19 starts. For example, prior to beating the Mets and Brewers he had gone 1-4 with an 8.42 ERA in his five previous starts.
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Last year, Arroyo faced the Dodgers twice and got rocked for 11 runs (nine earned) in 11 1/3 innings, with L.A. winning both contests. In fact, the Dodgers are 6-1 lifetime when facing Arroyo, with five of those six victories coming by multiple runs. Thus, there’s little doubt in my mind that the Dodgers will hit Arroyo early and often, even if Manny Ramirez (who was forced to leave yesterday’s game after being hit on the hand by a pitch) can’t play.
By taking the first two game of this series, L.A. has now won four in a row by the combined score of 28-13. The Dodgers are the first team to 60 wins; they’re 26 games over .500 for the first time since 1991; they continue to own baseball’s best record both overall and at home; and they’re THE best money team in the sport (i.e. L.A. has been the most profitable MLB squad to back from a betting perspective). Meanwhile, the Reds have lost six of their last eight overall and four straight on the road, giving up 32 runs in those four road defeats.
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Throw in the fact that the Dodgers have all their key relief pitchers available because none had to pitch in last night’s 12-3 blowout, and this is an absolute no-brainer. Billingsley bounces back with a gem and L.A. continues its domination of the Reds with another blowout win, this one by at least three runs.