Tony Salinas
25* Marlins (-140) over Padres
24* Rangers (+120) over Redsox
26* La Angels (-115) over Royals
Chris Jordan
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200♦ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (LIST Stammen and Pelfrey) - So much for a trip to the nation’s capital being a cakewalk and possible tour of Pennsylvania Avenue. While the Mets won for just the seventh time in 21 games in Monday night’s series-opener against their NL East rivals, they could only muster one base runner to second base last night en route to a 4-0 loss. Two things to note there: the whole base-running issue is obvious, but how about the fact the lowly, league-worst Nationals shut the Mets out. More notably, it was the seventh time this beleaguered offense has been shut out since June 22.
Quite simply, while the Mets are dinged up, and the Nats are playing with a “nothing-to-lose” attitude, I find it value to take the home team with a cheap price like this, while most of you would think it’d be value to play the underdog here. It’s a trap, trust me.
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To wit: right-hander Craig Stammen might be 2-5 on the year, but he’s coming in after posting his third straight quality start, last Friday against the Cubs. Though he absorbed the loss because of a couple of mistakes, he labored through six hard-fought innings. Tonight I believe he’s in the right spot for a win, as the Mets are mired in a 2-7 funk on the road, while their right-handed starter, Michael Pelfrey, is 1-2 in his last three starts with a 10.05 ERA; Stammen’s ERA in his last three starts is 2.45. Value, it’s why we play baseball. Tonight it’s with Washington.
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200♦ TEXAS RANGERS (Action) - Not sure where Boston’s offense has disappeared to, but after losing on the run line with the Crimson Hose, I need to jump ship and take the home dog tonight. All-Star Timmy Wakefield is headed to the disabled list, so that means Clay Buchholz is on the bump tonight, and that means the Rangers have a good chance at dismantling the Wild Card-leading Sox with that occasionally explosive lineup that leads the majors in home runs. I’m not listing pitchers in this one, as I’m basing this play on pure momentum, but Vicente Padilla’s work could be pretty easy since Boston is batting .195 (25 for 128) and has plated just eight runs during this four-game slide.
Red Sox captain Jason Varitek, who is .091 in his last eight games, said it best after last night’s loss: “We’ve hit our worst spot of the year as a team swinging the bats.” And since the Rangers are 4-1 against Boston this season, this seems to me like the sharp play tonight as far as the dogs are concerned.
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Delving into the numbers, the Sox are mired in losing streaks of 5-11 against the American League West and a dismal 2-10 with Buchholz toeing the slab with a suitcase in hand. On the flipside, the Rangers come in riding win streaks of 8-2 at home, 6-0 against the East, 21-7 when Padilla throws on four days rest and 20-8 when he’s installed as a pup.
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With Boston playing its sixth road game in as many days – all since the start of the second half, I’ll take the Rangers in an easy win over the road-weary Hose.
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200♦ L.A. DODGERS RUN LINE (WITH Billingsley over Arroyo) - We’re going to ride the Dodgers for a third straight night, end of story.
Once again the Dodgers found a way to build a lead and ride out the win over a dismal Reds team that is now five games under .500. It was the blowout I once again anticipated. And after watching the Dodgers break out with a solid offensive surge two straight nights, I’m looking for another dominating performance.
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Once again, based on the price of this game, it’s easy to see what the oddsmakers are telling us about the Dodgers – they’re deservedly steep favorites. For the second straight night we’re going to lay the run line, which I don’t mind laying with a team that continues to defy all naysayers by winning ball games however it can.
After last night’s setback, Cincinnati has lost 12 of 16 since July 3. And as I said the past two nights, things are heating up in the National League, and this is the exact type of time frame Dodgers need to take advantage of every single night.
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I’ve got the momentum on my side with L.A., the team boasting the best record in baseball, as it’s now won nine of 10 meetings going back to last season. Going back even further, the Dodgers have won 23 of the last 29 meetings, while the Reds are on a 3-10 slide in their last 13 as an underdog and have lost 11 straight at Chavez Ravine. Lay the run line tonight, as the Dodgers dismantle the visiting Reds.
Sam Clayton
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20 dime - Angels
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Much has been made about the recent struggles of Joe Saunders. The Angels' lefty is winless in his last four starts and you'd have to go all the way back to June 24 against Colorado for his last 'W'. However, the stars have aligned for him today as he's going to beat the lowly Royals, losers of 10 of their last 11 games. Saunders is the type of pitcher that thrives against Kansas City, he pitches to contact and challenges them to hit the longball. That's the key to beating him -- driving the ball into the alleys and out of the yard, something Kansas City's hitters don't do nearly enough. The Royals are 25th in the big leagues in home runs and have a glaring lack of power in the lineup. Saunders also has history on his side as he's 21-10 with a 3.95 ERA in 37 career road starts. And earlier in the season in the highly anticipated pitcher's duel between Saunders and Zach Greinke, it was the Halos' southpaw that won the battle, throwing a complete game shutout while scattering only five hits. The Angels have won 8 of 9 games and as witnessed yesterday, they are having no problem putting runs on the board. L.A. is 8-2 against Kansas City since Opening Day 2008 and with these teams going in completely different directions, I'm playing the Halos as Wednesday's top play winner.
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10 dime - Mariners
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Love the value we're getting today on Seattle with perhaps the best young pitcher in baseball on the mound. Felix Hernandez (10-3, 2.51) seems to be a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young award and the 23-year-old phenom hasn't allowed more than three runs in his last 10 starts. The King is 6-0 with a 1.30 ERA over that span and the M's have won the last seven times he's toed the rubber. As if his numbers couldn't get any more astounding, Hernandez has been incredible on the highway this year, posting a (6-1, 1.97) road marker. And tonight, he aims to silence a Detroit offense that he's beaten four times in a row dating back to 2007. Tigers' starter Armando Galarraga has seen better days as he's mirrored in the middle of an ugly sophomore slump. Since May 1, he's 2-8 with an ERA in the high sixes. King Felix will be on top of his game tonight and he'll only need a couple runs to bring home a win for the M's.
Tony George
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TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Ron Raymond
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Angels/Royals Under
Nick Parsons
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Mariners/Tigers Under
Bob Balfe
Braves -110
Teddy Covers
Florida Marlins
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaire - Kansas City
Chairman - Houston
Mike Rose
DBacks Over 9.5
Tigers
Rangers
Cards Under 7
Reds
Chris James Sports
2* Florida Marlins -142
Scott Delaney
10-DIME ATLANTA BRAVES (Action) - Nice winning run by the Giants right now, and we’re going to take advantage of them on this three-game streak to make it four in a row over the struggling Giants. I know Frisco has the perfect pitcher headed to the mound, to halt this skid, but this is the Giants’ sixth straight road game in as many days, while they’ve lost five of their last six.On the flipside, the Braves are on a 5-1 run and have been on fire offensively, scoring a minimum of seven runs in four of their last five games and averaging more than 7 runs per game during the streak. They’re also hitting a major league-best .300 this month.I’m not listing either pitcher here, as this is all about momentum and taking the hotter team at this point. After all, you have relatively even teams – Frisco has 50 wins and Atlanta has 48 – and the Braves are simply playing better baseball at this point. Take the home team.
5-DIME SEATTLE MARINERS (WITH Hernandez) - I was impressed with Felix Hernandez in his most recent start, as he dominated the Indians most of the night, striking out eight and allowing two runs on five hits over eight innings in earning his 10th victory of 2009. Against the Tigers, who actually beat Felix the Cat in his 2005 debut, he’s won four straight. In his first appearance against the jungle stripes this season, back in April, Hernandez scattered seven hits and a walk over six innings of work, while he allowed three runs and earned the win. Hernandez, who is 4-2 lifetime against
SportsKingz
FLORIDA -145 (POD)
TAMPA BAY -130
BOSTON -130
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
15*nl gom st.louis-112
7*toronto-145
5*mets+107
Street Rosernthal
Has 3 Other Plays
*200 Florida Marlins -140