Chris Jordan
200♦ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (LIST Tillman) - How many Baltimore pitchers will make their Major League debuts this season? I’ll be there every time, I can tell you that much, and tonight I’m banking on right-handed Chris Tillman. Six of the 16 players to make their first appearance with the Orioles this season also made their Major League debuts. Tillman joins pitchers Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Koji Uehara and David Hernandez on the list of Baltimore's rookie pitchers.
The 21-year-old has gone 8-6 with a 2.70 ERA for Triple-A Norfolk and has recorded an impressive 99 strikeouts over 96-2/3 innings. Tillman, who was acquired from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard deal, has allowed four runs or more just twice and has lasted at least six innings in seven of his past eight starts.
I’ve told you plenty of times why we make this choice, to take a pitcher making his debut in the bigs, as there is no clear-cut scouting report. That’s the case once again, especially against a Royals offense that has been horrendous throughout this season. Take the home team here.
200♦ TEXAS RANGERS (Action) - Not listing anyone here, just going to continue to ride the Rangers, who are playing well and should be able to keep the momentum flowing against the jungle stripes and Justin Verlander. I know Detroit’s prize pitcher is going for his 12th win of the season, but the Tigers haven’t looked like a division-leading team lately. Detroit has dropped three in a row, scoring just six runs, and come in after losing 7-3 to the Rangers last night. The loss dropped the Tigers to 4-8 since the All-Star break.
On the flip side, the Rangers have scored 19 runs in their last three games and could send Verlander to the showers early with this offense surge. Texas has been a team you can count on to erupt for a handful of games when it gets hot, and now is the time to strike.
Yes, the Tigers have won both of Verlander’s starts against the Rangers this season, as he is 1-0 in those outings with a 1.64 ERA over 11 innings pitched. And yes, he is 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last five starts versus Texas. But that’s a sign it’s time for Texas to make good on the scouting report and should get to Verlander with ease based on the way it’s hitting. Take the Rangers.
200♦ MINNESOTA TWINS (Action) - Three straight wins, the Twins make it four in a row with a surge of momentum after knocking off Mark Buehrle and the White Sox last night. The victory was the 16th in 20 games at the Metrodome for the Twins against the South Siders, as Chicago has given up 35 runs on the road to Minnesota this season. With last night’s win, the Twins pulled into a second-place tie with Chicago in the American League Central, two games behind first-place Tigers. The White Sox have lost five of six after entering last weekend tied for first place with Detroit – actually, since the perfect game Buehrle throw – and this is bad spot to be in during a downturn.
Minnesota has always been a team that wins in the second half and factors into the division race. I’m not listing either pitcher, I’m going off of pure momentum, and the fact is the Twins have a great shot at making a nice little run to the top of the division. The Angels are coming to town, and there will be plenty of revenge on the brain after a 1-3 stint in Anaheim over the weekend. Then it’s off to Cleveland and Motown for a six-game road trip.
This is a game the Twins need, and should get tonight.
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
10* Detroit -105
10* CWS/Minn. Over 9.5
7* Marlins -148
5* TB/Yankees Over 8.5
5* LA Dodgers +105
Premier Capper
Dodgers and Cards Under 8 –115 for 4 units
Looking at this pitching matchup I just don’t know of a better under bet this season I have made the way Pineiro and Kershaw have been pitching. Pineiro (9-9 2.95 ERA) and Kershaw (9-9 2.95 ERA) have been lights out this season for each team. Kershaw last 10 games he has only given up 3 runs two times and in the other 8 games have held opponents to 2 runs or less. Pineiro last 6 games 5 of them of gone under the total with him giving up 7 ER in that span. The Under is 8-1 in the Cardinals last 9 games as a favorite and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall. Runs will be hard to come by in this game and I think both teams need this win with the Dodgers losing 4 of their last 5 games and Cardinals having a half game lead in the NL Central. This is a big game for both teams and with two hot pitchers on the mound I just can’t see many runs here. The Cardinals have struggled against left handed pitching this season while the Dodgers are not hitting the ball as well and that is a good combo for an under in this game
Jack Jones
15* on Oakland A's +167
The A's are worth a small play against the struggling Red Sox right now. Boston has lost 2 of their last 3 and 4 of 7. Over the last week they are scoring just 4.4 runs per game, more than half a run less than they have all season. Meanwhile, Oakland has been on a tear offensively, hitting .312 as a team and averaging 6.4 runs over the last 7 days. Oakland Starter, Brett Anderson is winless in his last 3 starts, but has a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings pitch over that span. The Red Sox throw Brad Penny, who has been consistent, but who has a 4.71 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 19 starts this season, where the Red Sox are just 10-9 in his 19 starts. The Sox have been very beatable lately, making the A's a quality bet tonight.
15* on Texas Rangers +105
The Tigers have the pitcher with the better stuff on the mound tonight, but Rangers' starter, Scott Feldman, may be the best pitcher you never hear of this season. Feldman is 9-3 in 17 starts for Texas with a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He's been dominating in his last 3 starts, earning a 2.18 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and going 2-1 over that stretch. The Rangers continue to be on of best home teams in the American League with a 34-19 record, while the Tigers have struggled at 21-31 on the road. Neither team is hitting especially well, but the Tigers have been the worse of the two lineups, averaging just 2.9 runs per game while batting .231 as a team over the last 7 games. I expect the Rangers complete a 3-game sweep of the Tigers Wednesday.
20* No-Brainer on Tigers/Rangers UNDER 8.5
This total doesn't make much sense with these two pitchers on the mound. You have Justin Verlander for the Tigers, who has a 3.12 ERA on the season, not to mention a 0.78 ERA over his last three starts. Then you have Scott Feldman for Texas, who has a 3.04 ERA this season and a 2.18 ERA over his last 3 starts. We also have a Detroit team hitting .231 and scoring 2.9 runs per game as a team over their last 7 games, while the Rangers are hitting only slightly better at 4.4 runs per game on a team batting average of .247 over the last week. We got caught with the under in this series last night as it went over by a half of a run. Tonight it shouldn't even be close. The under is a no-brainer here.
HalfBets
Dodgers and Cards Under 8 –115 for 4 units (Bookmaker)
Looking at this pitching matchup I just don’t know of a better under bet this season I have made the way Pineiro and Kershaw have been pitching. Pineiro (9-9 2.95 ERA) and Kershaw (9-9 2.95 ERA) have been lights out this season for each team. Kershaw last 10 games he has only given up 3 runs two times and in the other 8 games have held opponents to 2 runs or less. Pineiro last 6 games 5 of them of gone under the total with him giving up 7 ER in that span. The Under is 8-1 in the Cardinals last 9 games as a favorite and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall. Runs will be hard to come by in this game and I think both teams need this win with the Dodgers losing 4 of their last 5 games and Cardinals having a half game lead in the NL Central. This is a big game for both teams and with two hot pitchers on the mound I just can’t see many runs here. The Cardinals have struggled against left handed pitching this season while the Dodgers are not hitting the ball as well and that is a good combo for an under in this game.
Evan Altemus
Colorado at NY Mets
Selection: NY METS -136
Profile: New York has now won four games in a row and has temporarily overcome their injuries for a small winning streak. Meanwhile, Colorado has cooled down recently since their extended hot streak. The Rockies have lost the first two games of this series and now have to face the Mets ace, Johan Santana. Santana has pitched very well this season, and is coming off of a slightly less than stellar performance. Therefore, I look for him to be focused in this outing. In addition, the Rockies have yet to face him since he has come to the National League, so I look for them to struggle against his stuff. Meanwhile, Jason Hammel has been hit slightly harder recently than earlier in the season. Washington, Atlanta, and San Francisco combined for twenty six hits in those recent three starts. In addition, Colorado's bullpen has been struggling recently as well, which could have an impact late in the game. Look for the Mets to get their fifth win in a row.
2 UNIT SELECTION
Philadelphia at Arizona
Selection: PHILADELPHIA -1.5
Profile: Philadelphia should be very motivated for this game because of the addition of pitcher Cliff Lee from Cleveland. The Phillies also have a huge starting pitching advantage in this game with J.A. Happ going against Yusmeiro Petit. Happ was a little shaky in his last start mainly because of the on-going trade talks that had him involved in. However, Happ can now relax because he is secure in Philadelphia. I look for him to be focused tonight against a weak hitting Diamondbacks line-up. The Phillies hitters have been much better in this series, so I expect them to use superior advantages in hitting line-ups and starting pitching to get another dominant win tonight.
2 UNIT SELECTION
MR EAST
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MLB WEDNESDAY PLAY OF THE DAY
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NY YANKEES @ TAMPA BAY RAYS
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The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the most dominant home teams in baseball over their last 124 games, compiling an 88-36 record, or winning 71% of the time. They are also 42-13 in that same situation, with a total set from 9-10.5, or winning 80% of the time. Matt Garza is a top flight pitcher, who since his rookie season, has never completed a big league season with an ERA over 3.70. Joba Chamberlain has not been as good in a starter role, as he was coming out of the pen for the Yankees, and pitching against teams with a winning record on the season, the Yanks are just 1-4. I'm going with the Rays here.
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PLAY: TAMPA BAY RAYS -104 FOR 3 UNITS
Nick Parsons
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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Play: Over 9.5
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The Twins look to win their fourth straight overall and 17th in 21 games at home against the White Sox when the two close a three-game series Wednesday. Chicago will try to avoid the sweep as it faces Francisco Liriano (4-10, 5.56 ERA), who is looking for his first win in five starts. The left-hander has made two forgettable starts against the White Sox this season, going 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA over a combined 8 2-3 innings. He's walked seven, given up two home runs and hit a batter. Jose Contreras (4-9, 4.80) will start for the White Sox, who scratched Bartolo Colon because of elbow soreness. Contreras is looking to avoid a third straight loss. He gave up four runs and nine hits while striking out eight over 6 2-3 innings of a 5-1 loss to Detroit on Friday. The right-hander gave up four runs and seven hits over five innings of a 12-5 loss to the Twins on April 10. With these two gas cans in their line-ups, it comes as no surprise to learn that the White Sox have seen the total go over the posted number in 8 of 12 games played on artificial turf while the Twins have seen the total go over the posted number in 9 of 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season! When taking into account all of these factors,I must highly recommend a play on the OVER!
ASA
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Rockies at Mets
Pick: Mets -136
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The Mets have gone through a rough season but Johan Santana is still pitching like an elite pitcher. He has eight losses but many can not be attributed as his fault and he owns a 2.86 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.12 ERA. Santana gave up five runs in his last start in a high-scoring Houston ballpark but he had allowed two runs in his previous 21 innings before that game. At home this season Santana is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and he has always been a better late season pitcher. Look for Santana to rebound after a tough outing as he typically bounces back strong after his rare bad starts.
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Since the Mets have been so terrible lately this will be a modest price on Santana and New York has had wild success against Colorado at home. New York is 23-5 in the last 28 games against Colorado in New York. The Mets should also start to play better after a very long road trip in mid-July took some life out of the team. New York has scored 25 runs in the past three games to take three straight wins into Tuesday night and New York still owns a significantly higher team average for the season than Colorado despite the inherent ballpark advantage that the Rockies have on offense.
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Jason Hammel has been a capable starter for the Rockies but he has allowed 13 runs in his last four starts, allowing 31 hits in his last 20 innings. In night games Hammel owns a 5.37 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP and this could be a tough match-up going against a two-time Cy Young winner. The Colorado bullpen has soared to 5.66 in the last ten games, continuing a season long problem for the Rockies. The Mets pen has been the one bright spot for the team so with Santana on the mound it is hard to envision Colorado getting on the scoreboard more than a few times.
Lenny Del Genio
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TEXAS RANGERS
Bob Balfe
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NEW YORK METS
Marc Lawrence
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FLORIDA MARLINS
Opposite Action Plays
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TEXAS RANGERS
Ron Raymond
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Dodgers/Cardinals Under
Stephen Nover
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NEW YORK METS