Teddy Covers
HOUSTON -125
MINNESOTA / TORONTO OVER 9
KANSAS CITY / SEATTLE OVER 7.5
Bill Marzano
Matchup: L.A. Angels at Chi. White Sox
Time: 8:10 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) SAUNDERS, J vs. (R) GARCIA, F
Play: Chi. White Sox (-1.5 +170)
Note - this is a purchased play however I have seen elsewhere where he has the play listed on the Chi Sox moneyline as opposed to the run-line. I know he is usually a run-line or an underdog player. Just want to address it if someone else come across it. And he is having a profitable season.
I really like the Chicago White Sox in this game vs the Angels...the Angels have dropped four of their last five games overall and not playing really well...the White Sox are streaking behind F.Garcia...he has not suffered a loss since May 23 and has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts...Garcia has dominated Los Angeles in the past, going 14-3 with a 2.53 ERA in 24 starts with a 1.06 WHIP...the White Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 home games...12-3 in their last 15 games following a win...11-1 in Garcias last 12 starts vs. American League West...6-0 in Garcias last 6 starts vs. Angels...I like the White Sox run line
The Duke's Sports
St. Louis Over (8') for 3 Units
We see an uptrend in the "over" emerging for St. Louis, which is coming off 3 straight "overs", including yesterday's debacle --allowing 9 runs in the 9th inning to cost them the game. The Cardinals' bullpen sports a bloated 6.06 ERA over the past few weeks. Tonight, we'll look for the Rockies' run surge to continue vs Jaime Garcia, who has been inconsistent --alternating wins and losses over his last 5 starts, should get hit hard here after coming off one of his best starts of the season. The Rockies are 4-0 O/U in their last 4 vs lefty starters and 8-1 O/U overall. On the other hand, Aaron Cook has been fabulous at home but has not pitched well in his career vs St. Louis. Cook has been battered to the tune of 6.51 ERA in 5 starts vs St. Louis at Coors Field. He is 5-2-1 O/U in his last 8 starts vs St. Louis. "over" the call.
MR EAST
CINCINNATI REDS @ NY METS
3 UNITS: NY METS -1.5 +180
The New York Mets are the best team in major league baseball facing the runline in home night games. They have produced a 21-7 mark good for +18.2 units already this season. They have learned to make their new stadium into a true home field advantage. The Mets are also 7-0 behind Jonathon Niese in his last 7 home starts. The Mets got to Bronson Arroyo for 4 runs in 7 innings when he faced them earlier, and the Reds are just 7-16 when he faces a winning team. Reds are also just 6-13 in their last 19 on the road vs a lefthander. mets are 24-8 in their last 32 at home. I'll go with the Mets on the runline.
Teddy Covers
HOUSTON -125
MINNESOTA / TORONTO OVER 9
KANSAS CITY / SEATTLE OVER 7.5
Hey Blade, I've seen Teddy's Comp Play is Cubs/Az OVER 9. I know there is another forum for these but Ted's been doing pretty darn well and figured it wouldn't hurt to add and note it as a comp. If it does hurt, I'll never frikkin do it again. I am curious if there are any Teddy followers that can comment on how well his freebies have also been doing.
As always, thanks.
Power Play Wins
San Francisco
Teddy Covers
HOUSTON -125
MINNESOTA / TORONTO OVER 9
KANSAS CITY / SEATTLE OVER 7.5
Hey Blade, I've seen Teddy's Comp Play is Cubs/Az OVER 9. I know there is another forum for these but Ted's been doing pretty darn well and figured it wouldn't hurt to add and note it as a comp. If it does hurt, I'll never frikkin do it again. I am curious if there are any Teddy followers that can comment on how well his freebies have also been doing.
As always, thanks.
Never really noticed how is comps are but when your hot your hot and worth a look for sure.
Cubs @ Diamondbacks
PICK: Over 9
Arizona has been an Over machine all year long, the single most profitable ‘Over’ team in baseball here in 2010. The D-backs starting pitching has been spotty; their bullpen has been truly awful, and their lineup is loaded with power, capable of scoring runs in bunches. Arizona is 8-1 to the Over in their last nine at Chase Field and 14-3 to the Over in their last 17 meetings with the Cubs. All six previous meetings between these two squads this year have gone Over the total; with only one of those games producing less than a dozen runs.
Chicago’s Ryan Dempster has been lit up repeatedly by this Arizona lineup, with a 6.80 ERA in 43.2 innings of work here at Chase Field. Dempster was on the wrong end of a 12-0 defeat in his last start. Arizona’s Edwin Jackson will probably need the All Star break to recover from his 149 pitch no hitter against Tampa two starts ago. Jackson was hit hard by the Dodgers in his last trip to the hill, allowing five runs in five innings of work. The Cubs lineup is finally hitting right now, pounding out 15 runs in the first two games of this series. Neither bullpen is rested or reliable, opening the door for late inning shenanigans if we need them. 2* Take the Over.
KELSO
50 Units Detroit Tigers -1.5 run line -125
15 Units Florida Marlins -118
10 Units Chicago White Sox -120
3 Units Houston Astros -125
ROCKETMAN
5* St Louis Cardinals -110
4* Houston Astros -125
3* Toronto Blue Jays -105
Paul Leiner
50* Yanks -115
25* Det/Balt Over 9.5
Marc Lawrence
Oakland A's
When the A's send Gio Gonzalez to the mound against A.J. Burnett and the Yankees in Oakland tonight they will do so knowing Gonzalez is 4-1 in his last five home team starts with a 1.54 ERA. He's also 4-1 in his career team starts during the month of July, including 1-0 at home. On the flip side, Burnett is 0-6 with an 8.81 ERA in his last six team starts. He's also 1-3 with a 5.25 ERA in his last four starts against the Athletics. Stay at home with Gonzalez and the A's here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Oakland.
Larry Ness
8* Weekly Wipeout Winner Sea Mariners
Break up the Royals? The perennial losers, who entered the 2010 season with a streak of six straight losing years (averaged a pathetic 64 wins per season in that stretch), have suddenly won FIVE of their last six and NINE of their last 12. That includes two wins in the first two games of this three-game series with the Mariners in Seattle, 6-4 (10 innings) on Monday and 3-2 last night. Will the Royals really sweep a three-game series in Seattle for the first time since 1995? Now way! On the hill for KC is journeyman Kyle Davies. He's 4-6 with a 5.64 ERA in 16 starts this year (team is 8-8). He's off a good outing in his most recent start (7.2 IP / 7 hits / 1 ER), a 2-1 win in Anaheim for KC in which Davies got a no decision. However, in his six previous starts he allowed at least four ERs in each outing, giving up 29 ERs in total over 30 innings for an 8.70 ERA! Doug Fister takes the mound for Seattle. After his May 31 start at home vs Minnesota (7.2 IP / 8 hits / 5 ERs), he was placed on the DL due to shoulder fatigue. He returned on June 26 and while the team has split his two starts, Fister has struggled (8.2 IP / 11 hits / 9 ERs / 9.35 ERA). The good news is that his shoulder is fine but as manager Don Wakamatsu told the Mariners’ official website, "He's just not quite feeling his release point. It's just getting him out there pitching again." Let's NOT forge~t that in Fister's first nine starts this season, he posted a 2.03 ERA. Let's also remember that BOTH of his starts since coming off the DL were on the road. Here in Safeco this season, he's allowed just 39 hits in 52.2 innings with a 2.39 ERA. Seattle gets it right tonight in a big way!
Ben Burns
10* NYY / OAK Under 8.5
The first two games of this series have both fallen below the total. The opening game finished with a score of 3-1. Yesterday's had a final of 6-1. Some will assume that all three games can't possibly stay below the total and will favor the 'over' in this evening's finale. However, the fact that the first two games were both 'unders' will have no affect on whether or not this one stays below the total. This is actually the highest O/U line of the series. Given the current form of Oakland's Gio Gonzalez, I feel that its generously high.
Regulars know that I've had some success with Gonzalez, partly as I picked up on the fact that he's been much better at home than he's been on the road. He's 3-3 with a 4.71 ERA on the road but 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA at home. In eight home starts, opposing hitters are batting a mere .168 against him. Lately, he's been fantastic, regardless of venue. Over his last three starts, he's allowed two runs (only one was earned) in 19 2/3 innings, giving up just 13 hits. That translates to a 0.46 ERA. It doesn't get much better than that. Not surprisingly, two of those three starts (the most recent two) stayed below the total. Last time out, he won 3-0. His previous start resulted in a 3-2 victory.
Burnett had admittedly really been struggling in June. However, he's proven to be a highly capable pitcher in the past and he began July with a gem. Facing Toronto, one of his former teams, he allowed just four hits through 6 2/3 shutout innings. Naturally, that game stayed below the total. Often, if a good pitcher had been struggling, a performance like that can be just what was needed to get things "back to normal." That said, I expect Burnett to build off that outing and for him to deliver another solid effort.
Note that Burnett has seen the UNDER go 2-0-1 in three career starts here at Oakland. Those games averaged just five combined runs, finishing with scores of 3-0, 3-1 and 6-2. Burnett allowed six earned runs in 20 2/3 innings, which translates to a 2.61 ERA.
It should also be noted that Burnett has now seen the UNDER go a profitable 9-1 his last 10 starts made in the month of July. A closer look reveals that he~ allowed three earned runs or less in ALL 10 of those starts and that he allowed two or less in nine of them. He also went six or more innings in nine of those 10 starts. In other words, he's pitched VERY well at this time of the year.
The Yankees bullpen has been excellent on the road. The A's bullpen has been equally as good at home. Note that the UNDER is now 10-4 the last 14 times that the Yankees played here.
Including the Game 1 result, the UNDER is also 14-6-1 the last 21 times that the A's played a home game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Detroit (-240) over Baltimore
Baltimore has lost 27 of the last 31 road games when playing on a Wednesday and they have also lost 12 of the last 13 games as an underdog of +200 or higher. Bradley Bergessen has lost 11 of the last 13 road games and he is 0-2 over the last 3 games with an ERA of 9.00.
50* Play Tampa Bay (-170) over Boston
Tampa Bay has won 6 of the last 7 games and they have also won 47 of the last 61 games as a home favorite of -150 to -175. David Price has won 14 of the last 16 games vs. division opponents and he is also 5-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.99.
50* Play Texas (-230) over Cleveland
Cleveland has lost 11 of the last 13 road games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 41 of the last 63 games when playing on a Wednesday. Texas has won 7 of the last 9 games as a favorite of -200 or higher and pitcher, Colby Lewis is 4-1 in home games with an ERA of 3.45.
3G Sports
10* GOW - Phillies