Jay McNeil
200 Dime Cardinals
2-Minute Warning
NY Yankees -1.5
Matt Rivers
150,000♦ Toronto Blue Jays
Joel Tyson
30 Dime Los Angeles Dodgers
Rocketman
5* Chicago White Sox -130
Chicago White Sox are 29-14 in Inter-League play the past 3 years. Pittsburgh is on a 2-10 run overall here in June. Pittsburgh is 0-4 in Inter-League play this year. White Sox have won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Pittsburgh has lost 9 games in a row heading into tonight. Chicago White Sox bullpen has a 2.82 ERA on the road this season. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.2 runs per game overall, 3.3 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against left handed starters this year. John Danks has a 3.27 ERA overall this year. Zach Duke is 3-7 with a 5.30 ERA overall this year, 1-3 with a 4.36 ERA at home and 0-3 with an 8.27 ERA his last 3 starts. Chicago White Sox are 6-1 overall the past 3 years vs Pittsburgh. We'll play the Chicago White Sox for 5 units tonight!
3* LA Dodgers -110
LA Dodgers are scoring 5.1 runs per game on the road and 5.1 runs per game against right handed starters this year. LA Dodgers bullpen has a decent 3.56 ERA on the road this season. Cincinnati bullpen has a 5.38 ERA at home this year. Clayton Kershaw is 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA overall this year, 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA his last 3 starts. LA Do‚dgers are 14-4 overall vs Cincinnati the past 3 years. Kershaw has a 2.57 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997 while Leake has a 6.43 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997. We'll play the LA Dodgers for 3 units tonight!
Dwayne Bryant
LA Angels -155
The Angels have lost the first two games of this series by a combined score of 19-3 and they've managed a total of 11 hits in the process. I expect motivation to be high following those two blowout losses at home and I expect the Angels to avoid the home sweep (haven't gotten swept at home since June 25-27, 2007, versus Kansas City) and get the win tonight.
Joel Pineiro is coming off a complete game win at Dodger Stadium in which he allowed just 1 run and 5 hits against a pretty good Dodgers lineup. In six home starts this season, Pineiro owns a 2.66 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Contributing to the low WHIP rating is the fact that Pineiro only walks a batter about every four innings of work. That's what I like to see in my starting pitcher.
Chris Narveson is coming off a very solid start against Texas in which he went 7 strong innings and allowed just 2 runs on 6 hits. The problem with that is Narveson hasn't put together back-to-back Quality Starts all season. He owns a 5.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road and a 5.46 ERA & 1.59 WHIP on the season. Narveson walks a batter about every other inning, which should give the Angels some good scoring potential tonight.
While the Angels bullpen has been much maligned, the Brewers pen is even worse when you look at home/road splits. The Angels pen owns a 4.44 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and .250 BAA at home, while the Brewers pen sports a 5.53 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and .299 BAA on the road.
Bottom line: Pineiro has produced 5 Quality Starts out of 6 home starts this season, while Narveson has produced just ONE Quality Start out of 5 road starts in 2010. Narveson is coming off a Quality Start (at home) and he has not had back-to-back Quality Starts this season. With the Angels coming off consecutive embarrassing home losses and looking to avoid being swept at home, I expect a huge effort from the Halos tonight.
Jeff Benton
40 DIME Houston Astros
Baseball can be a cruel game, and I present Roy Oswalt as living proof. The Astros ace has pitched his ass off this season but has just four wins to show for it in 12 starts. This despite the fact Oswalt has delivered a quality start in 10 of those 12 contests. In those 10 partacular games, Oswalt has a 2.36 ERA, giving up two earned runs or fewer on eight occasions.
Oswalt has been particularly nasty outside of Houston, where he’s 3-1 with a 1.24 ERA in four starts. In those four road games, Oswalt has more strikeouts (31) than combined walks and hits allowed (22) over 29 innings of work! The opponents’ on-base percenetage against Oswalt when he pitches on the road? A pathetic .209.
If Oswalt got any help from his offense early in the season – Houston scored a grand total of 18 runs in his first eight starts – he’d be talked about with Jimenez, Lincecum, Halladay and Josh Johnson as the best pitchers in the National League. But the runs have been coming lately, as the Astros have managed 5, 5, 4 and 5 runs in Oswalt’s last four outings. And in general, Houston’s offense is picking up, scoring 67 runs in the last 14 games (4.8 per game).
Yes, the Astros have lost their last four in a row, but three of those were to the Yankees in New York over the weekend (quite forgivoable), while the fourth was last night’s 15-7 setback in Kansas City. Prior to this four-game slump, though, the Astros had been on an 8-2 roll. And even with Monday’s ugly defeat, the Astros are still 8-2 in their last 10 trips to K.C.
Speaking of the Royals, Oswalt has faced them twice in his career. Here were the pitching lines:
8 innings, 1 run, 7 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts
6 innings, 1 run, 7 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Bottom line: To get Oswalt at this cheap of a price against a Royals team that’s nine-games under. 500 on the season, five games under .500 at home and starting mediocre lefty Bruce Chen is just too good to pass up. And keep this one last point in mind, too: Oswalt, who has made public his request to be traded to a contender – is auditioning for several ballclubs, so you know he’s going to bring his A-game tonight!
Chris Jordan
300♦ Boston Red Sox -1.5
ASA
5* Tampa Bay +125 over Atlanta
Tommy Hanson is a highly regarded young pitcher for the Braves and he will likely be overvalued in tonight’s match-up against one of the top teams in baseball. Hanson owns a strong 6-3 record and 80 strikeouts in just over 75 innings but after a brilliant April his numbers have normalized a bit and he is also having trouble going deep into games. In his last six starts his ERA is 5.51 and he has been allowing more walks. He has been fortunate to get great run support this season as it has helped to boost his record in games when he has not been that sharp. Hanson has also pitched poorly at home with a season ERA of 5.40.
While the Rays have fallen of the scorching early season pace, this is still one of the best teams in baseball. Tampa Bay enters this game with an amazing 23-8 road record. Tampa Bay has out-scored opponents 6.0 to 3.4 in road games this season, numbers far better in both marks than Atlanta has delivered at home. The Braves have a strong home record but they have faced few winning teams at home so far this season, bloating the numbers with sweeps of Pittsburgh and Houston.
Atlanta’s lineup is banged up and worn out following a very long multi-city road trip and rookie Wade Davis will present an unfamiliar challenge. Davis has average numbers this season for the Rays but he has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of twelve starts this season. One rough outing in Texas really hurt his overall statistics as he has actually pitched quite well in the majority of his road starts. Davis is occasionally prone to allowing home runs but Atlanta is not a strong power hitting team and Turner Field has been a low-scoring park.
In the last ten games the Rays are batting .300 against right-handed pitching and the Rays have scored six or more runs in eight of the last eleven games. Tampa Bay is 11-1 in the last twelve Wednesday games and there will be solid value on the Rays in this road match-up as the Braves are a very public team that currently sports an inflated record. Atlanta should have trouble keeping up in this match-up and Tampa Bay continues to be a play-on team in many situations, as few Ray pitchers have been given due line respect.
While four errors last night in game 1 of this series helped the cause for the Rays, directly leading to three early runs and creating a lot of extra opportunities, Tampa Bay did pound out twelve hits and had six extra-base hits. The Rays went just 4 for 16 with runners in scoring position last night and left ten men on base so in reality the 10-4 margin could have been much worse. Tampa Bay appears to be the class of the American League and once again the AL appears to be the superior league. The Rays have been an impressive road team and a red hot offensive team that should find success in this match-up while catching great value up against Hanson, who has not had his best efforts in recent weeks.
Billy Coleman
4* Astros
3* Jays
3* CWS Under
3* Dodgers
Teddy Covers
Dodgers
Mets
The Duke's Sports
ChiSox Under (7') for 2 Units
Both of these starters should throw strikes and eat innings: Danks controls a strong 1.15 ERA in 6 interleague starts, including 0.95 ERA on the road; Duke, who is 0-6 O/U in interleague play, should breeze by a ChiSox lineup that's batting an anemic .196 on tthe road. Chicago is 0-7 O/U in their last 7 interleague matchups vs a lefty starter. Pirates are struggling to produce runs and sport a 3-14 O/U mark as a dog in interleague play. "Under" the call.
Michael Cannon
20 Dime Dodgers
10 Dime Rangers
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Chi. White Sox at Pittsburgh
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) DANKS, J vs. (L) DUKE, Z
Play: Chi. White Sox (ML -130)
No reason not to come right back with the White Sox again on Wednesday night. The road team has the better hurler in this battle of lefties with Danks opposing Duke. Danks is also off a very solid start following a couple of shaky ones, indicating he's right back on the beam. But Duke is on a losing streak, and the Bucs are just 2-8 in his last 10 starts. Pittsburgh is in a miserable slump right now, having dropped nine straight contests, and I think it's fair to say that they have one of the least home field edges in all of baseball. The White Sox are making a little bit of a run right now, and while I'm somewhat dubious about how long they can maintain it, they're at least a go with entry for the present time. The price isn't bad at all, so I'll go ahead and back the Chisox to grab another win tonight.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) DAVIS, W vs. (R) HANSON, T
Play: Atlanta (ML -130)
The Rays took advantage of Atlanta starting its weakest starter on Tuesday night and hammered the Braves. But I like the hosts to rebound here as they turn to Tommy Hanson. Now it's the Rays who are starting their back end guy, as Wade Davis throws for the road team. While the Rays have been an awesome squad away from home, the Braves have been monsters at home. I also see the Rays having trouble with nasty stuff they have not seen previously as they face Hanson. It's never easy to try and beat TB, but I still see value on Atlanta here with the pitching matchup and I like taking good home teams off a game where they got crushed. I'll spot the moderate price with the Braves.
Sportbook Guru
3 Units Texas +105
3 Units Cleveland +105
2 Units Seattle/St. Louis Over 7.5
2 Units Tampa Bay +114
Smashmouth Sports
3* Atlanta
ATS Lock Club
4 units Atlanta
4 units Oakland under
3 units Mets
Bryan Leonard
Pick: 3 units New York Yankees -1.5
Jamie Moyer has really struggled in his career against the Yankees. The veteran lefty has an 8.77 ERA in his last five starts against New York. The reason is very simple as the Yankees are a very patient team who doesn't get flustered by Moyer's junk ball mentality. They have scored at least four earned runs in every game as they simply wait for a good count and pound his mediocre offerings. Moyer faced a similarly patient Red Sox team last time out and allowed nine earned runs in a single inning of work.
AJ Burnett has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road. At Yankee Stadium he owns a 2.27 ERA as opposed to a 5.03 ERA on the road. Overall 4 of his 5 home starts have been quality ones.
The Phillie offense continues to struggle and we can't see them righting the ship in this situation. The line is high so we will play the run line with the Yankees. With Moyer on the mound five of the Phillies six losses have been by three runs or more.