Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Boston (-150) over Oakland
Oakland has lost 7 of the last 8 road games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 6 of the last 8 games after allowing 8 or more runs in the last game. Oakland pitcher, Ben Sheets has lost 4 consecutive games as a road underdog of +125 to +175 and he is 0-2 in road games this season with an ERA of 8.20.
50* Play LA Dodgers (-140) over Arizona
Arizona has lost 9 consecutive games and they have also lost 16 of the last 19 games coming off two or more losses. Arizona has lost 7 of the last 8 games vs. Los Angeles and pitcher, Edwin Jackson is 1-3 in road games this season with an ERA of 6.92.
25* Play Chicago (+110) over Philadelphia
Anthony Redd
10 Dime Play - Cubs/Pirates Over
10 Dime Play - Rays/Blue Jays Under
10 Dime Play - Athletics/Red Sox Under
5 Dime Play - Brewers/Marlins Under - 5 Inning Play
5 Dime Play - Orioles/Yankees Under - 5 Inning Play
5 Dime Play - Rays/Blue Jays Under - 5 Inning Play
5 Dime Play - Indians (side) - 5 Inning Play
Al DeMarco
15 Dime St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
Dr Baseball Guaranteed Selections
GRAND SLAM BASEBALL DOMINATOR
Boston w/Matsuzaka -150
Sports Brokers Guaranteed Selections
BASEBALL INSIDE INFORMATION WINNER
LA Dodgers w/Monaster -145
Master Sports
3* Blue Jays
TEDDY COVERS
Boston Red Sox -1.5
Toronto Blue Jays
PAUL LEINER
100* TB Rays even
50* LA Dodgers -140
25* Philadelphia Phillies +125
John Ryan Sports
Indians @ Tiger
Pick: Over 9.5
15* graded play OVER Cleveland/Detroit set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that 10 or more runs will be scored in this game. In fact there is a high probability that one of these teams may score 9 on their own merit. Detroit is 11-3 OVER (+8.0 Units) vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season; 15-5 OVER (+9.7 Units) in home games vs. poor base running teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Indians are 13-3 OVER (+9.9 Units) after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. Carmona is a solid 20-8 OVER (+12.1 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons; 27-10 OVER (+16.9 Units) in night games over the last 3 seasons. Acta is 13-3 OVER (+9.9 Units) after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs as the manager of the Indians. Cleveland’s bullpen is in total disarray and has posted a horrifying 13.24 ERA and 2.471 WHIP over the past 7 games. Detroit’s bullpen is also suffering sporting an 8.16 ERA and 1.743 WHIP and recording just 10 K’s over their past 7 games. The model projects that both starters will combine for less than 12 innings of work. Should this occur the OVER has a very significant probability of winning the bet. Take the OVER
Chris Jordan
300♦ BOSTON RED SOX -1.5
Jeff Benton
25 DIME: N.Y. METS
5 DIME: OAKLAND A'S
Mets
Can’t pass up Johan Santana at this dirt-cheap price. I know the Mets ace hasn’t had much luck lately – his team is just 1-3 in his last four starts – but it certainly hasn’t been Santana’s fault. He’s allowed a total of three earned runs in those four starts, pitching 7, 7, 7 2/3 and 8 innings. His ERA during this four-start stretch? 0.91!
Since coming to New York in 2008, Santana has faced the Padres three times and all he’s done is allow just four earned runs in 21 innings (1.71 ERA). He’s also thrived in three career outings (one with the Twins) at Petco Park, allowing just three total runs in 20 innings (1.35 ERA).
The fact this game starts in late afternoon in San Diego is another reason to love Santana, whose filthy stuff is hard enough to hit in perfect conditions. Throw in shadows that will be creeping across home plate in the middle innings, and the Padres – who have lost five of their last seven games against left-handed starters – better get some runs in the first two innings because they’re going to be in trouble after that. And by the way, check out Santana’s numbers in day games this season: 2-1, 2.84 ERA in five games (four of them New York victories).
The Mets have won seven of Santana’s last eight starts against N.L. West opponents, and as a team the Mets have won seven of nine versus the N.L. West. New York is also 5-1 in its last six games against left-handed starters (San Diego is going with southpaw Clayton Richard in this one). That record versus lefties is hardly surprising, given the fact the Mets are batting .295 against southpaws this year (compared with .240 against right-handers) and .338 against lefties in the last 10 games.
Three more points about Richard: He’s coming off his worst start of the season (four runs allowed in seven innings of a 5-3 home loss to the Nationals after holding his first nine opponents to three runs or fewer); 2) he’s got a 4.38 ERA in two day games (both Padres losses) compared with a 2.66 ERA in eight night games; 3) the Padres average just 2.9 runs per game when Richard starts (and only once in Richard’s six home starts has San Diego scored more than three runs, and it lost that game 6-5).
A’s
How do you not fade Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, especially when getting this kind of take-back with the improving Ben Sheets on the mound for Oakland?
Dice-K has had just two solid outings in six starts this season, and one of those was a 5-0 victory at the Phillies (a performance that two weeks later doesn’t look so impressive given Philadelphia’s prolonged offensive slump). Take away that game against the Phillies and a 6-1 win over Toronto, and here’s what Matsuzaka has done in his other four starts: 22 runs (21 earned) on 23 hits and 17 walks in 19 1/3 innings (9.78 ERA). His main problem, as usual, has been control, as Matsuzaka has issued 21 walks in 34 1/3 innings for the season, including 15 walks in his last three starts (17 1/3 innings). That includes eight walks in 4 2/3 innings in Thursday’s 4-3 home loss to the Royals
Also, after dominating Oakland in four starts from 2007 to 2008, he faced the A’s last April and lasted one inning, allowing five runs in an eventual 6-5 loss.
As for Sheets, he’s delivered seven quality starts in his last 10 trips to the mound, and over his last five starts the veteran right-hander has given up just 10 runs in 32 innings (2.81 ERA). He lasted at least six innings in all five contests, and Oakland won four of them.
The only reason Boston is 3-3 in Dice-K’s six starts this season is they’re supporting him with 7.2 runs per game. Don’t see that happening today against Sheets and a quality Oakland bullpen that has all of its top arms available since none pitched in last night’s 9-4 loss to the Red Sox. And despite that defeat, the A’s are still on an 8-3 run, going 5-3 on their current road trip.
Stephen Nover
20 Dime Mets
15 Dime Brewers
Scott Rickenbach
10* Boston vs Oakland Over
Yesterday’s game in Boston flew over the total and Oakland is now 7-1 to the over this season when they are installed as a road dog of +125 to +150. As for the Red Sox, with yesterdays over, they are now 5-2 to the over this season when they are installed as a home favorite of -150 to -175. That’s a combined 12-3 (80%) trend that is working in our favor here. At home, the Red Sox have been an “over team” this season and that has been particularly true when the total is in the 9 to 9.5 range as the Red Sox are 11-7 to the over in those games this season. The A’s have only stayed under the total twice in their last six games while the Red Sox have averaged 5.8 runs per game since the start of May. That’s tops in the American League! Boston should certainly stay hot at the plate today. We realize that Ben Sheets has pitched better of late but this is still a tough match-up for him. It’s his first start against the Red Sox and it’s at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The Sox have been knocking the cover off of the ball of late and Sheets is winless in his five road starts this season. The A’s right-hander has an 8.20 ERA in his road games this season and he’s been hammered at a .333 clip in those starts. Also note that Sheets has held opponents to a .232 average in day games but he’s been pounded at a .290 clip in night games.
Sheets’ counterpart tonight is Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Red Sox right-hander should also be expected to struggle. Matsuzaka has walked 15 batters in his last 17.1 innings on the mound. This includes an ugly outing where he walked 8 batters in his most recent start. Matsuzaka is simply not the same pitcher he was two years ago. Since his fantastic 2008 season, the right-hander has compiled a 5.76 ERA last season and a 5.77 ERA so far this season. He’s had some success against the A’s but he’s still compiled a less than spectacular 4.21 ERA versus Oakland in his career. Last June, Matsuzaka had a 7.71 ERA and he got knocked around by opponents as they hit .373 against him for the month. The way his final start went in May, don’t be surprised if another “June swoon” is on tap for Matsuzaka. He’s having major issues with his command and he’s facing an A’s team that has swung the bat better in recent games. Oakland has averaged 5 runs per game in going 5-2 in their last 7 games. They’ll need all the offense they can get tonight as the Red Sox have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 10 games and should have no trouble with the offerings of Sheets tonight. As for the bullpens in this match-up, they each rank just “in the middle of the pack” in the league and the A’s pen got clobbered last night! Play OVER the total in Boston as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* NY Yankees vs Baltimore Over
Mark Texeira exited last night’s game but he could be back for tonight’s game. Also, the Yankees lineup is expected to get a boost with the return of Jorge Posada tonight. Even if neither of those guys was back in the lineup tonight, this is still a Yankees team that had produced 37 hits in their last 4 games before coming up with a very poor effort in last night’s 3-1 win. Keep in mind, the Yankees had gone 10-3-1 (or 11-3) to the over in their last 14 games to finish up May. One under (last night) isn’t going to change our minds about what this team is capable of in terms of their continued solid, offensive production. The Yankees certainly should have very little trouble with the offerings of Brad Bergesen of the Orioles. Additionally, Baltimore’s bullpen ranks in the lower third of the majors based on combined ERA and, so too, does the Yankees bullpen. Note that Bergesen has a 6.28 ERA on the road and has been pounded at a .354 clip away from home. On the road, the Orioles right-hander has a 6 to 1 ratio of walks to strikeouts this season. Though he’s coming off of a solid effort, Bergesen had previously been clobbered in his two prior starts. Overall, at least four runs have been charged to him in 7 of the 9 starts he’s made this season.
While Bergesen is being opposed by a Yankees starter with some solid numbers so far this season, we absolutely would not be surprised to see Phil Hughes (6-1, 2.70 ERA) struggle some tonight. Hughes is 2-2 with a 5.97 ERA against Baltimore in his career and the Orioles have pounded him at a .307 clip! Also, after a fantastic start to this season, Hughes has given up 11 earned runs in his last 17.2 innings on the mound. In his career, the Yankees right-hander has been hit 60 points higher at home compared to on the road. Also, his ERA is 0.6 runs higher in night games compared to day games. The Yankees are 23-7 to the over this season when the total is 9 or 9.5 runs. The Yanks also are 14-5 to the over in divisional games this season. Also, as a big home favorite of -250 to -330 the last three seasons, the Yankees are 14-5 to the over. That is long-term success in the big favorite role and we expect a high-scoring affair after a rare, low-scoring game at Yankee Stadium yesterday. The Yankees are 7-1-1 (88%) to the over in their last 9 home games and another slugfest erupts tonight after last night’s rare quiet game in the Bronx. Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as an *8* Regular Play selection.
MATT FARGO
Nationals at Astros
Pick: Nationals +106
Washington dropped a tough one in Houston last night in the ninth inning but the offense once again hit the Astros hard as it has put up 21 runs in the first two games. I see that surge continuing. The Astros won for just the fifth time in 18 games and they have not won consecutive games since May 12th and 13th. The Nationals send John Lannan to the mound and he is starting to find his form after a slow start. He has posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three starts and he was just two-thirds of an inning short of three quality starts. He has allowed three runs or fewer in four of his six road starts on the season and he is 3-1 in four career starts against the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed eight runs in just 3.1 innings against the Reds last Friday and it has been a very up and down season. He is just 2-7 on the season with Houston winning only three of his 10 overall starts including going 1-3 at home as the offense is backing him with just 2.5 rpg in those four outings. The Astros have scored three runs or fewer in seven of those 10 games overall. 9* Washington Nationals
Bob Balfe
Pirates/Cubs Over 8.5
Two of the year's most disappointing pitchers will face each other tonight and I expect both to continue to struggle, especially Zambrano. Look for both pitchers to get into trouble early and leave it up to average bullpens. Both teams should get plenty of hits and walks to generate enough runs to send this over the total. Take the Over.