DAVID MALINSKY
4* CINCINNATI/OAKLAND OVER 8
A couple of cool evenings with pitchers on form have led to a pair of low-scoring games to open this series, but that reduces this line to an extremely low hurdle to leap, and a pleasant day in Oakland with the wind favoring the hitters sets this one up well for the offenses.
Cincinnati brings pitching problems from top to bottom this afternoon. Johnny Cueto is not on form, not having worked past the 6th inning in six straight games, and with a 7.15 allowance over his last four outings. Do not be mislead by the fact that he gave up only one run over 5.2 IP in his last start at Seattle – he labored to the tune of 20.3 PPI against a weak offense, not finishing the 6th despite throwing 115 pitches, his second highest count of the season. Both the Quality of Quantity from those recent efforts is a problem, with the Cincinnati middle relief corps among the weakest in the Majors this season, and today we do not expect any signs of Francisco Cordero taking the mound, off of back-to-back nights in which he has thrown 54 pitches. Not even Dusty Baker would force a closer into a day game off of that kind of work load.
Meanwhile Vin Mazzaro just does not bring the kind of stuff needed to succeed at this level, and his particular problem has been HR’s, with 19 allowed through his first 121.1 Major League innings, helping to buoy that 5.27 ERA into place. It creates a bad matchup against a Cincinnati offense that is tied for 3rd in the majors in HR’s, especially with the wind blowing to right center, and the Oakland bullpen also brings some fatigue issues for the latter stages.
Hot Shots
3* SD Padres Over
NSA
20* St Louis -115
20* Twins -140
20* Red Sox/Colorado Under 8
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
BASEBALL TOTALS PLAY OF THE MONTH
St Louis and Toronto UNDER 7.5
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
GUARANTEED SELECTIONS!6/23/2010 POWER PLAY BASEBALL CHALK EATER PLAY OF THE MONTH
Seattle w/Lee -175
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
BASEBALL OFFSHORE STEAM WINNER
Florida w/Nolasco -115
Dwayne Bryant
LA Angels -123
Can the Dodgers beat the Angels? I'm beginning to have my doubts. Last night's 6-3 Angels win marked their fourth win in as many tries against Joe Torre's boys this season. Tonight's pitching matchup looks like the Halos will make it five straight.
John Ely is definitely on a downward swing. Ely owns a plump 9.20 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in his last three starts; one of which was against these Angels. Ely has been getting shelled (allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts, spanning 14.2 innings) and he has also walked 6 batters in his last 9.2 innings of work. The Angels reached Ely for 4 runs in 5 innings just 11 days ago. The Angels should be able to at least duplicate that now that they've faced him recently.
While Ely is struggling, Joel Pineiro has hit his stride. Pineiro owns a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last 3 starts, and a 2.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home this season. Pineiro is 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers after throwing a five-hitter with seven strikeouts in a 10-1 victory June 11th.
The Dodgers are struggling, losers of five straight games. Much of that can be contributed to their lack of success at the plate. In those last five losses, the Dodgers are batting an anemic .189 and scoring a pitiful 2 runs per game against righties. Pineiro's sinker should give them fits again tonight. And the normally reliable Dodgers bullpen owns a 1.46 WHIP in their last 5 games, allowing opponents to bat .283 against them.
Bottom line: Pineiro and the Angels are hot; Ely and the Dodgers are not. The Dodgers have a losing streak overall and against the Angels. I'm not about to bet against those streaks tonight.
KELSO
50 Units Yankees -1.5
10 Units Rockies -1.5
10 Units Giants
10 Units LA Angels
5 Unit Parlay Giants & Angels
3 Units Reds
Scott Rickenbach
10* Tampa Bay / San Diego Over
The Rays James Shields is getting the start despite working the 10th inning of Tampa Bay’s Saturday night win at Florida. Though Shields claims that he is feeling fine physically and that the live work simply replaced his normal bullpen session, we feel strongly that nearly anytime a starting pitcher has his normal routine altered, the results are not pretty. Note that Shields was already struggling badly as it was. The Rays right-hander has compiled a 7.58 ERA in his last five starts and he’s lost all five of them. Also, normally known for being strong at home, Shields has lost his last two home starts and compiled a 17.65 ERA in those two ugly outings. Now he faces a San Diego team that, prior to yesterday’s 2-1 Padres win, has been getting involved in many more high-scoring games than usual. Prior to Tuesday’s pitchers duel, San Diego’s games had only recorded one under in their last nine games! The Padres had averaged about 9 hits per game during this 9 game stretch and their pitchers had given up an average of about 9 hits per game in their last 10 games prior to yesterday’s pitchers duel. That said, we are well aware of the fact that both the Padres and Rays are generally known as “under teams” but this is a prime spot for both starting pitchers to struggle.
Shields has struggled recently and is in an usual scheduling situation due to having worked out of the bullpen Saturday. Note that Shields is 5-3 on the road this season but he’s just 1-3 at home with a 5.65 ERA. Shields won’t be the only starter likely to struggle tonight. Note that the Padres Kevin Correia has allowed 33 earned runs in his last 47 innings of work dating back to late April. That’s equivalent to a 6.32 ERA and Correia has struggled on the road all season as he has allowed four earned runs in 4 of his 5 road outings on the year. Correia’s current form is also concerning. The Padres right-hander has given up 18 earned runs on 28 hits in his last 18.2 innings of work. Correia has been hit at a .309 clip on the road this season and he’s compiled a 6.66 ERA in the process. The Padres are still 9-3 to the over in interleague action eve after yesterday’s under. Also, Tampa Bay is 8-3 to the over in Wednesday games this season and the Rays were 10-6 to the over this month before Tuesday’s under. These are two of the best bullpens in baseball involved in this game but both of these starting pitchers are likely to struggle and both of these teams have been trending strongly toward the over in recent weeks. The Rays have averaged 5.3 runs per game this month and the Padres under yesterday was just their 2nd in their last 10 games! Combined 17-6 ATS trend working in our favor here per the marks of 9-3 for San Diego and 8-3 for Tampa Bay noted above. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Oakland / Cincinnati Over
The Reds are 20-12 to the over this season when the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Cincinnati is also 26-17 to the over this season when facing right-handed starters. Yesterday’s game stayed under the total but it was a chilly evening game in Oakland and the A’s had previously been 11-7 to the over this month. Look for a mild afternoon – and facing a struggling hurler – to get the Athletics bats going again. As for the Reds sticks, they’ve come back to life in Oakland after struggling mightily in Seattle. Keep in mind, Cincinnati has one of the top offenses in the National League this season and, like Oakland, they will take advantage of mild afternoon weather and facing a struggling hurler to enjoy a big day at the plate.
Johnny Cueto’s 6-2 record this season is impressive but note his 4.30 ERA. In fact, Cueto’s ERA has been 4.30 or higher in all three of his seasons so far. He’s coming off of a strong start in his last outing but that was at Seattle where runs were coming at a premium throughout that series. Prior to this solid outing, Cueto was struggling mightily and had allowed 17 earned runs on 25 hits in his last 17 innings of work. Also, Cueto is 22-16 in night games in his career but note his 4-11 career mark in day games. Additionally, Cueto has compiled a 6.00 ERA in his two day game starts this season. The right-hander has a 4.63 ERA in his career outdoor starts and it will be a rather mild afternoon in Oakland Wednesday with favorable winds helping the hitters. The Reds aren’t the only team with a pitching concern this afternoon. Vin Mazzaro, just like his rookie season last year, is struggling again. Mazzaro, at the big league level, has compiled a 5.30 ERA and been hammered at a .318 clip. His day game numbers are even scarier as the A’s right-hander has a .344 BAA in 9 day games (6 starts) in his young career. In his career, Mazzaro is winless in his six interleague starts and he’s compiled a 5.03 ERA in those games. Play OVER the total in Oakland as an *8* Regular Play selection.
ASA
3* Dodgers / Angels Over 9.5
John Ely has delivered solid numbers in his rookie season but he has drawn some favorable match-ups. Six of his ten starts have come at low-scoring Dodger Stadium and six of his first seven games came against then-losing teams. The competition has been tougher of late and Ely has struggled, featuring 9.20 ERA over his last three starts. In his road starts this season his ERA also climbs to 5.62. Ely has given up six home runs in his last three starts and after walking just four batters in his first five starts he has walked twelve in his last five starts.
Ely will face an Angel offense that is batting .270 in the last ten games. The Angels have not been a consistent scoring team but the big production potential is there, scoring at least five runs in six of the last eleven games and 15 of the last 22 games. The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams and the Angels are playing strong ball of late going 16-6 in the last 22 games despite getting suspect pitching performances from many starters and the bullpen.
Joel Pineiro had a career season last year in St. Louis which made him an attractive free agent candidate. Landing in Los Angeles seemed to be a great fit but he has struggled in his return to the American League with a 4.45 ERA. Pineiro has won his last three starts but he is just 6-6 on the season and he has allowed six or more runs four separate times this year. Pineiro has pitched better at home but has struggled in night games with a 5.51 ERA and he is backed up by a bullpen that has struggled all season long.
The Angels have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.98 ERA and only eight wins picked up by relievers. The Los Angeles bullpen has allowed 118 walks, the most allowed by any relief unit in baseball. The Dodgers have not featured the dominant bullpen of past seasons and the Los Angeles offense has been the catalyst for success in the past month. The ‘over’ is 10-6 in the last 16 Dodger games and over the last 18 road games Los Angeles has scored nearly 4.8 runs per game. Both pitchers may be given a bit too much respect in this match-up and these are two offenses that are capable of big numbers.
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Atlanta at Chi. White Sox
Time: 8:10 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) HUDSON, T vs. (L) BUEHRLE, M
Play: Chi. White Sox (ML +105)
Tim Hudson has been impeccable all season for the Braves. He's been amazingly consistent and has basically not had a bad start all year. Mark Buehrle has not been quite as steady for the White Sox, but he's been better lately. And it's important to note that Buehrle is now the all-time wins leader in interleague play. The White Sox are a good value here, as they're at home and they're on a seven-game winning streak. At this price, even against the stingy Hudson, it's the White Sox that are my choice to win the money.
Tim Trushel
Blue Jays Under 7.5
Bob Valentino
Seattle Mariners -1.5
Seabass
300 Twins
200 Angles
100 Mariners
100 Cards Un
Al Demarco
NYY -1.5
CHW