Jeff Benton
20 DIME SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
20 DIME PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1½
20 DIME NEW YORK METS
Giants
The raw numbers suggest that Houston right-hander Brett Myers has been domanant when pitching at home this year, as he’s 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in seven starts, with Houston winning six of those games. But dig a little deeper and you see that Myers has allowed nearly 1 ½ baserunners per inning at home (68 combined hits and walks in 46 2/3 innings), so he’s been walking a thin line.
One other thing those raw numbers don’t show is that the Astros’ otherwise pathetic offense has – for some reason – clicked with Myers pitching at Minutemaid Park, averaging nearly 6 runs per game. Here’s why it’s highly unlike Houston will come close to that number tonight: San Francisco’s Barry Zito had handcuffed the Astros twice already this season, scattereing three hits and a walk of six scoreless innings in a 3-0 road win back in opening week, then allowing three runs on six hits and one walk in seven innings of a 4-3 home win on May 16. In four of his five career starts against the Astros, Zito has allowed a total of seven runs in 26 innings (2.42 ERA).
That Zito has had his way with Houston isn’t a huge surprise, because the Astros are batting just .240 as a team against left-handed pitching. Over the last 10 games, that average sits at 1.97!
And while Myers’ home numbers are a bit deceoving, so too are Zito’s road numbers. He’s just 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA in six outings as a visitor, but he’s allowed held opponents to a .278 on-base percentage on the road while giving up just 35 hits and eight walks in 40 2/3 innings.
San Francisco rallied for a 3-1 win to open this series last night and has won nine straight against Houston and 11 of the last 13 (including six straight in Texas), and furthermore it is 52-25 last 77 meetings. The Giants are on additional surges of 12-6 overall, 16-5 against the N.L. Central, 36-17 as a favorite, 19-9 with Zito on the mound and 5-0 when Zito faces the N.L. Central. Conversely, the Astros have dropped five in a row and nine of 11 overall, 20 of 27 against the N.L. West, 47 of 67 as a home underdog and seven of 10 against left-handed starters.
Phillies -1½
Looks like the light has gone on for Phillies right-hander Kyle Kendrick. He’s pitched the Phillies to victories in six of his last eight starts, and in those eight games Kendrick has delivered five absolute gems (four runs allowed in 35 innings in those five contests). On Friday, he completely dominated the Yankees in Yankee Stadium – no small feat at all! – allowing just a run on four hits and two walks in seven innings, rolling to a 7-1 win as a +200 underdog.
Granted, Kendrick has had his issues at home, posting a 6.32 ERA, including giving up five runs in each of his last two home outings against the Red Sox (4 2/3 innings) and Marlins (5 innings). However, the Phillies are still 6-2 in his last eight home starts. Besides, comparing the Indians’ offense to that of Boston’s or Florida’s is like comparing Betty White to Megan Fox on the beauty scale. Cleveland has a .247 team batting average and has scored more than four runs just 23 times in 69 games (and not once in the last six contests).
Indians right-hander Jake Westbrook has a 6.16 ERA in his last three starts and is coming off a 6-4 loss to the Mets, making the Indians 5-9 in his 14 starts this season. Also, 34 of Cleveland’s 43 losses this season – including 17 of the last 22 – have been by multiple runs. Meanwhile, 12 of Philadelphia’s last 13 games overall have been decided by more than one run, and the Phillies’ seven wins with Kendrick on the mound have been by scores of 7-1, 10-8, 3-2, 12-2, 9-5, 4-0 and 14-7.
Mets
At this point, I’m ready to play the Mets blindly when they’re at home, no matter the pitching matchup. Last night, New York crushed the Tigers 14-6, handing Justin Verlander just his second-ever interleague loss in 16 starts. So the boys from Queens have now won 25 of 35 games at Citi Field this season, including 21 of the last 26.
Overall, the Mets are on a 20-7 roll, and they own baseball’s best interleague record at 10-3 (only three losses to the Yankees), including four straight wins against the A.L. Central. On the flip side, Detroit has now dropped four of its last five road games overall, 37 of 53 as a road underdog, nine of 12 in National League parks and 39 of 57 as an underdog in interleague play.
All of this makes you wonder how this can be a pick-em contest tonight. Maybe because Detroit has the edge in starting pitching? Not in my opinion. Jeremy Bonderman is 3-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts, including 1-1 with a 5.03 ERA in his last three starts. New York knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is 5-0 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts (with the five wins coming in his last five trips to the hill). Bonderman is also 1-2 with a 6.03 ERA in six road starts, 0-3 with a 5.26 ERA in six night games, and he’s allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in two starts (11 innings) against the Mets.
Dickey is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two home games, and he faced the Tigers five times from 2003-08 with Texas (four starts) and Seattle (one). Detroit’s record in those five games against Dickey? 1 win, 4 losses.
The Duke's Sports
ChiSox (+100) for 2 Units
Hard to go against Buehrle at home after all, he is 28-12 over his last 40 home starts; moreover, when the 'total' is set between 7 and 8 , he is 39-19 at home; furthermore, , in interleague play, Buehrle is 22-6 for the Sox, including a 10-1 tear with a 1.77 ERA over his last 15 On the other hand, Tim Hudson sports a money burning 2-12 mark with a bloated 6.34 ERA in IL play, and 0-7 on the IL road with a lofty 7.12 ERA. When Hudson was with th We don't see much run support for hi today; after all, Atlanta is batting a sluggish .213 on the road vs lefties. We'll look for the Sox to stay hot in this spot.
BIG AL
Phillies
Rays / Padres Over
Mariners / Cubs Under
Street Rosenthal
*200 Seattle Mariners -176
*200 San Franciso Giants -120
*200 Los Angeles Angels -121
NICK PARSONS
10* Cubs / Mariners OVER 6.5