JR O'Donnell
2* Chicago Blackhawks +105
We are pounding the Black Hawks tonight as the Vegas Lines makers are setting up the Public with this low line + 105, the 52-22 Black hawks will rattle the 41-35 Philadelphia Flyers net minder Leighton as he has been shaky at best vs these Hawks The back up net minder Boucher has also been less than stellar as the Chi Hawks are just that much better, The Public will line up on the wrong side here as we will roll with "the Visitor" in Philly tonight. The Black Hawks net minder Antii Niemi will take all the pressure and has done enough to keep the Black Hawks close and win in the end!
NSA
20* Blackhawks -115
20* Red Sox -165
20* Yankees -1.5
Chip Chirimbes
Angels at A's
Pick: A's -120
It has taken over 60 games but the Los Angeles Angles the defending AL West champs have finally caught up with the Oakland A's. Opening day starter Joe Saunders (4-6, 4.78 ERA) is 10-4 lifetime over the A's including five wins since the 2009 season started. Dallas 'Perfect' Braden gets the chance to even his record witha win here. He's still given up less hits then innings pitched.
Tony George
LA Dodgers -112
Although the game on Tuesday was a 1-0 Dodger win, they have outscored the Cards 13-4 so far in 2 games in this series, and were able to get the win against Carpenter last night. This will be a low scoring game, but southpaw Kershaw takes the hill for LA and has a 2.55 ERA his last 3. The Cards hitting has been erratic at best and they have struggled all year against good left handers, and even in their last 10 games have struggled. This is the key to game! Wainwright is a stud pitcher for the Cards, but with LA looking to sweep at home, I think they get more run support in this one than the Cards. The total is 6.5 runs, the under might be worth a look as well. Cards just 3-7 on the road their last 10, and LA is hot winning 22 out of 29. Play 1 Unit on the Dodgers.
Paul Leiner
100* NYY/Balt Over 9
50* A's -120
25* Cubs +100
Marc Lawrence
3 Units SF Giants
King Creole
Angels / Athletics Over 8
Two out-of-form starting pitchers.... an assist from 'Mother Nature'.... a rock-solid 'OVER' Umpire... and tremendous individual team trends. They all add up to a higher-than-expected outcome in the Bay Area on Wednesday night.
Getting the call 'behind the dish' tonight is MIKE REILLY... who enters the game with a 9-3 O/U record on the season (9.8 runs per game). Also 18-7-2 O/U dating back to last year. He started off the year going OVER in each of his first four games. And as of late, his record is a PERFECT 3-0 O/U in his last 3 games... with combined run totals of 11, 13, and 15 runs (13.0 RPG).... and 4-1-1 O/U in his last 6 games. He's also gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in all American League games thus far in 2010 (12.0 RPG). These numbers fit right in with previous OU tendencies in the last few seasons. He went 28-16-1 O/U last season... and 47-23-3 O/U in the last two years. A couple of FINAL notes: REILLY has gone a PERFECT 5-0-1 O/U 'In THIS Park' since the 2005 season.... 5-1 O/U on Wednesdays... and 5-1 O/U in Wednesday LA ANGLES games in the last 3 seasons. If we need an assist from Mother Nature tonight, we note that pre-game forecasts project the winds to be blowing OUT to Center and Right-Center in excess of 15 MPH.
ANGELS: 8-2 O/U in last 10 Underdog roles... 4-1 O/U in Game Three of a series... 5-1 O/U on the road vs winning teams.... a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in their last 4 games vs LEFTIES... and 4-0 O/U vs starting pitchers with a sharp WHIP of 1.15 or less.
ATHLETICS: On a current 6-2 O/U run in their last 8 games... 4-1-1 O/U in their last 5 roles as a favorite... 6-2 O/U vs winning teams... 6-1 O/U vs a starter with a WHIP of > 1.30... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in Game Three of a series.
Both pitchers are in inconsistent form. Joe Saunders of the Angels has allowed MORE walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts (5.94 ERA). Opponents are hitting .410 vs him. He's gone 9-3 O/U on the road vs winning teams... and 7-2 O/U on Wednesdays. Dallas Braden is off two straight shaky starts, with ERA of 6.56. BOTH of those starts went OVER the Total.
Nelly
1* Pirates / Nationals Under 9.5
A little bit less attention will be on tonight's game in Washington but another young pitcher will make his major league debut. Brad Lincoln was a 1st round pick in the 2006 draft and he has excelled at AAA Indianapolis the last two seasons, including a 12-4 record and this season his ERA is down to 3.16. Lincoln has allowed just 14 walks in over 68 innings of work this season and he should have a great opportunity to make an excellent first start. Pittsburgh's bullpen has marginal numbers overall this season but in the last ten games the unit has a 3.38 ERA and Washington has not been scoring a great deal of runs. Washington has scored just 19 run in the last six games and only five times in the last 24 games have the Nationals topped five runs. For the season the 'under' is 33-24-2 in Washington games including 16-10-2 in home games. The 'under' is also 19-9 in the last 28 games the Nationals have played as favorites. The momentum of last night’s big win has Washington a bit overvalued for tonight's match-up but the 'under' looks like the best play in this game as Pittsburgh's offense continues to struggle. Only once in the last 18 games have the Pirates scored as many as six runs and in the last twelve road games the Pirates have averaged just 2.5 runs per game. In the past ten games the Pirates are batting just .224 and the 'under' is 22-8 in the last 30 Wednesday games that the Pirates have played. Due to the low-scoring potential of the offense this is the highest total in a Pittsburgh game in the past 13 games and even with a rookie starter for the Pirates runs should be tough to come by. The last time John Lannan started against the Pirates he allowed just one run over seven innings. Lannan had a rocky start to the season but he has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. Lannan only has two wins this season but Washington has had success in his starts and in night games this season his ERA is just 3.77. Pittsburgh is batting just .230 on the road against left-handed pitching and the Nationals have also featured a strong bullpen with a 2.30 ERA in the last ten games. Rookie pitchers often have early success due to the unfamiliarity most batters will have in the match-up and more low numbers should be expected Wednesday night.
Scott Rickenbach
10* Philadelphia Flyers (-) vs Chicago
The home team has won every game in this series but, once again, the Flyers are being given very little respect there. After opening up in the -130 price range the Flyers are down around the -115 range as of Wednesday morning. This is offering great line value to a team that, other than the first period of game five in Chicago, has really looked every bit as talented as the Blackhawks have in this series. Philadelphia simply did not skate well at all in Game Five. It was if they couldn’t come down off of the emotional high of winning those two big games in Philly. Rest assured, they will come out skating hard in this one from the drop of the opening puck. Philadelphia has been fantastic on home ice ever since the calendar turned the page from 2009 to 2010 back on January 1st. Included in their huge run on home ice is a fantastic 9-1 mark in the playoffs. Also, we fully expect goalie Michael Leighton to bounce back (as he’s done all post-season long) from a rough game in Chicago in Game Five.
While some feel this series is over it truly is anything but. Remember the Penguins got blown out on the road in Game Five last season and were down 3-2 in the series heading into a Game Six home game. As you will recall, the Penguins came back to win the next two games after the Game Five blowout and Sidney Crosby and company ended up hoisting the Stanley Cup. The Flyers have been resilient this season, especially in the playoffs, and they have often been at their best when their backs are against the wall or they’re counted out. Chris Pronger will bounce back after a very rough Game Five in Chicago and we just don’t see any quit coming from the Flyers players. They still believe and, of course, that is critical to their continued success tonight which we fully expect to see. The Flyers are 20-10 this season in a home game where the total is 5.5 goals. The Flyers are also 7-3 this season when playing with two days rest. Of course, Chicago also has plenty of good numbers to look at as well but the Flyers have played so well on home ice this year we fully expect a huge effort especially after the bashing Philly took in Chicago, including with the media there and the Pronger incident in the Chicago papers. That just adds even more fuel to the fire for a hungry home team that’s low price is offering huge value. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a *10* Top Play selection.
10* Chicago / Detroit Over
The wind is expected to be blowing out at US Cellular Field in Chicago tonight. Last night these two teams just missed going over the total but we do not expect a repeat of that tonight. Rick Porcello of the Tigers has struggled mightily on the road this season. Porcello, away from home, is 1-3 with a 7.78 ERA this season and he’s been pounded at a .376 clip! Note that Porcello also is 0-2 in his career against the White Sox and he’s compiled an ugly 6.65 ERA against the Pale Hose. Note that the Tigers right-hander has struggled in his night starts this season as Porcello has compiled an ugly 7.31 ERA under the lights. The White Sox just saw Porcello on May 18th and they got to him for four earned runs in seven innings in Detroit. Now, facing him three weeks later and getting him in Chicago this time (with the wind blowing out), look for the White Sox to do even more damage here.
The White Sox send Freddy Garcia to the mound tonight and, though he has great career numbers against Detroit, we look for him to struggle against the Tigers here. Garcia has allowed five homers in his five home starts this season. Though he has strong numbers against the Tigers, note that Garcia hasn’t pitched in more than 11 games in a season since the 2006 season. The point is that most of those great stats that Garcia has compiled against Detroit are really “dated” numbers. In Garcia’s last three home starts he’s allowed 24 hits in 15.1 innings. He’s compiled a 4.94 ERA on the season and, when he faced Detroit on May 18th he only had one 1-2-3 inning in the game. He was pitching out of the stretch most of the night and, with the wind blowing out at US Cellular Field tonight, base runners will prove to be a big problem for Garcia. Note that the Tigers are 7-2 to the over as a small road dog (up to +125) this season and the White Sox are 6-1 to the over as a small road fave (up to -125) this season. That’s a combined 13-3 (81%) trend supporting the over in this match-up and note that the Tigers have only stayed under the total once in their last five games. As for the White Sox, they’ve only stayed under the total twice in their last nine games! Play OVER the total in Chicago-AL as a *10* Top Play Wednesday night!
8* Tampa Bay / Toronto Over
This was the lone blemish on my record last night as these two teams failed to get the game over the total and it ended up being a push at nine runs! While last night all the scoring was coming from the Rays, we look for much more of a balance in the scoring tonight. We are getting very strong line value with the total posted on this game. We have been given a very low number to work with because Shawn Marcum and David Price both have very impressive numbers so far this season. A big key to the value here is that these pitchers just recently matched up with one another and the final score was 7-3. Even though some of those runs came late against Marcum, there is still no denying that both lineups enjoyed some success in the match-up. The Blue Jays and Rays combined for 19 hits in the 16.1 innings that they faced the opposing starter in that game on June 2nd. With each team having just seen the starting pitcher they will face again tonight, we feel this is a big edge to the batters. They’ve got some confidence from racking up some hits in the prior match-up and now both pitchers are coming off of extra rest and oftentimes rest can be a case of “too much of a good thing”. Pitchers who are in a rhythm, like Marcum and Price have been, don’t really want to sit out too long between starts. This will be the most time off either pitcher has had between starts this entire season.
The Blue Jays are 8-3 to the over this season when they are on the road and the posted total is an 8 or 8.5 runs. The Rays are 7-2 to the over this season when playing on Wednesdays. That’s a combined 15-5 (75%) ATS trend that applies to tonight’s match-up. Note that the Blue Jays were 5-1 to the over in their last six road games before last night’s push. As for the Rays, they were 6-2 to the over in their last eight games before last night’s push. Tampa Bay has averaged 6 runs per game in their last nine games. They should be able to get their fair share against Marcum tonight. Even though Marcum has enjoyed success against the Rays in his career, this will be his first career start at Tropicana Field and Tampa Bay is swinging some very healthy lumber right now. Marcum is just 1-2 on the road this season and he’s been hit 30 points higher in night games compared to in day games this season. Also, he’s been hit 31 points higher with an ERA that is 1.19 runs higher when he’s indoors compared to outdoors so far this season. Marcum’s counterpart, Price, has enjoyed success against the Blue Jays in his career but, the fact that Toronto just saw him plus got nine hits against him, is a big plus in this quick “rematch” on the schedule. Also, Price is 10-1 in daytime action in his career but he’s just 8-8 in night games with an ERA that is more than run higher! We’re grabbing the big value here with the low number posted on a game where both teams should enjoy success in a quick “second look” at the hurlers they are facing tonight. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as an *8* regular play selection.
ATS Lock Club
4 Units San Diego/NY Mets Under 7
4 Units Oakland -130
Craig Davis
100 Dime NYY -1.5
John Ryan
15* Titan - Padres
15* Titan Total - Blackhawks/Flyers Under
Rob Vinciletti
Angels vs. Athletics
Pick: Under 8
These 2 have a history of playing to the under. In the last 19 games 12 have played under. In the pitching match up the Angles have lefty J. Saunders making the start. In his road starts this year he has a fine era at 2.87 and 4 of the 5 road starts have played under. Oakland counters with D. Braden tonight. In Braden home starts he has a 2.61 era with 6 of the 7 starts going under the total. The Angels only hit .242 vs leftys and have played under 8 of 9 times on hump day. Oakland only averages 3.7 runs per game vs leftys and have played under in 12 of 18 games vs southpaws. They also have a solid home bullpen era at 2.89. Now to tie in a solid system that has cashed 13 of 14 times we want to play the under for home favorites like Oakland off a home dog win and scored 10 or more runs with 5 or more men on base vs an opponent off a road favored loss and scored 2 or less runs. Win or lose the under is the right side tonight. Go under the 8 runs.
Craig Trapp
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Boston Red -1.5
Bucholtz has been great all season for BOS and against a struggling and banged up CLE team he will really dominate. Buchholz has already set a career high in wins, going 5-0 with a 0.99 ERA in his last five starts. For CLE they will start Masterson, who has gone 2-12 since joining the team. He had lost 11 consecutive decisions before beating the White Sox on Friday. This is a much better lineup than that CHW team he did well against last time out. Both wins this week by CLE have been pretty easy and tonight will be at least a 4 run win.
Dwayne Bryant
Cincinnati Reds