PHILLY CONNECTION
3* TWINS -135
DAVID MALINSKY
4* NY YANKEES/DETROIT GM 1 UNDER
So do we stay in play here? Yes. Going from a night game to a day game with less wind takes a little away, but getting Joel Zumaya out of a fatigue rating helps to counter balance that, as does Joe Girardi putting Alex Rodriguez in the DH role, which puts the weak bat of Ramiro Pena into the lineup. As for the rest, let’s just re-cap yesterday’s analysis verbatim, although the “wind” in the opening is no longer such an issue -
A cool, perhaps even cold, night in Detroit with the wind blowing in from left rarely brings this kind of Total into play. But that is what happens with the starting pitchers show tags of 1-3/9.78 and 2-3/7.50. But neither Javier Vazquez nor Rick Porcello are going to remain anywhere near those production levels, and that gives us excellent value to step in here.
Vazquez is coming off 10 straight seasons in which he has made at least 30 starts, with half of them resulting in an ERA of less than 4.00, and his 2.87 ERA and 9.8 K’s per 9 were career bests LY. So it is not as though he is going to fall off the table. We can anticipate an ERA climb as he goes from a favorable park for a flyball pitcher in Atlanta to Yankee Stadium, and some tougher A.L. ballparks for his style, but we will also see that same pop from his arm, and note that even in the disastrous bottom line so far he has recorded 20 K’s in 23 IP. Now he has been skipped for a start to get his head back in order, and the combination of tonight’s weather, and a Detroit offense that is tied for 24th in the Majors in home runs, bodes well for his correction to begin. And with no fatigue issues for any key bullpen arms the latter stages are in good hands.
Then there is Rick Porcello. To go from the 14-9/3.96 of his rookie to season to the current 2-3/7.50 looks like a precipitous drop, but take a closer look. In 2009 he had 2.74 W’s per 9, that has only gone to 3.0. In 2009 he had 4.69 K’s per 9, that is actually up to 5.70. In 2009 he allowed 1.21 HR’s per 9, that is down to 0.9. And once again he is keeping the ball down in the strike zone, with 2.42 ground ball outs for every fly-out. So what has gone wrong? A little bit of baseball geometry. There are 123 pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings, and his BABIP sits at #3, a .398 rate that will play back in his favor in the innings ahead. Behind him is a bullpen that has been the best in the Major Leagues so far in 2010, and with only Joel Zumaya carrying a fatigue rating there are plenty of good options for Jim Leyland in the end-game.
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Time: 12:35 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) BAILEY, H vs. (L) DUKE, Z
Play: Cincinnati (ML +101)
Homer Bailey was absolutely horrendous in his last start, and it's never easy to gauge whether the good Bailey or the bad Bailey will show up. But at least he's been good against the Pirates, posting a 4-0 career record with a dynamite 2.13 ERA. That's a plus for a guy who falls into the "head case" category, as he should take the mound with confidence for this game. Zach Duke has been ordinary for the most part for Pittsburgh. From a team standpoint, the Reds are the go with side as they're looking to wrap up a sweep and win for the fifth straight game. The price is not an obstacle, and I had the Reds on Tuesday in their 9-0 romp, so I've got no problem rolling right back with them here.
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Matchup: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Time: 1:10 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LOWE, D vs. (R) GALLARDO, Y
Play: Atlanta (ML +138)
Yovanni Gallardo has been immense for the Brewers so far this season, so trying to beat the talented Milwaukee ace is no easy task. And it's also true that Derek Lowe is not looking very good for the Braves thus far, with growing concern that the handsomely paid veteran might no longer be the reliable every fifth day starter he's been throughout most of his lengthy career. But I'm big on value, and I think there's a good deal of it here. Gallardo notwithstanding, the Brewers have been horrible at home and that makes them a very risky proposition at a price that has clearly been inflated off the starting pitchers. The Braves have been awful as road dogs this season, but with Ryan Braun very possibly out once again, the Brewers offense would take a huge hit. Road dogs looking to complete series sweeps have been stellar so far this season, and the Braves are suddenly swinging hot bats. I believe Atlanta is worth the gamble at this price, so the Braves are the choice.
Matt "Lillefty" Dennehy
1* Cincy -105 over pittsburgh - Cincy is rolling as winners of 5 straight. They are hitting lefties at .312 over the last 10 games. Pitt is struggling at the plate this series. Zach Duke has some awful batter/pitcher matchups in todays game. Cincy pulls off the sweep.
2* Milwaukee 1st 5 inn -1/2 run(-120) over Atlanta - Gallardo is really starting heat up. 1.50 era over his last 3. Lowe had been hit hard so far this year and quite a few Brewers have had success in the past off Lowe. I hate taking a run line with a home team so 1st 5 inn it is. Brewers avoid the sweep w.Gallardo.
1* Florida +115 over Chicago - The slippers are coming off cinderella(Carlos silva). His last 2 starts he has looked more like his usual self. The bullpen for the Cubs is bad. The offense is bad. Right now they are just playing awful baseball. Florida is playing well. Volstad has had 3 quality starts in a row after a rough start to the season. Look for the slide to continue here.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* NY Mets -165
50* Tampa Bay -115
25* Boston +125
25* Pittsburgh -250
Triple Threat Sports
2* NY Yankees/Detroit OVER (Vazquez/Porcello)
Yanks skipped Vazquez the last time his day came up in the rotation, so it has been more than 10 days since pitched. That is usually not good for a pitcher, and especially since Vazquez has had ten days to stew over the fact that if he pitches poorly here he will likely lose his spot in the rotation. He has not really handled the pressures of New York well, and this is a very pressure packed situation, so we are not exactly confident he will do well here. The reason he was skipped is that he has managed just six innings in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in that span. His mound foe tonight, Porcello, not in great form either, as he has an 8.59 ERA in his last three starts, and in his lone career stark against the Yankees the Bronx Bombers lived up to their name, shelling Porcello en route to an easy win. This one shapes up as a wild one, so the Over is the way to go.
R&R Totals
Yankees/Tigers GM 1 Over
Rocketman
5* Toronto
ATS Lock Club
5 Units Rangers
4 Units Indians
Teddy Covers
Washington / NY Mets Under 8.5
Dodgers
Anthony Redd
10 Units Rangers
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Phily -115 (GAME 1 Halladay over Cook)
1 Unit Atlanta +145
1 Unit LA Dodgers -120
1 Unit White Sox +120
JR O'Donnell
2* Montreal Canadians + 230
Pittsburgh Pens are 0-4 at the Mellon center in game 7's and they drop tonight to 0-5 after the Habs have there way tonight on Ice. We have a red hot net minder in J Halak from the Canadians who has the best GAA in the playoffs @ .933 and a smooth 2.45 average. The Cans are a smooth 4-3 straight up as a road dog and will not be intimidated by the Pens, They beat the high flying Washington Caps in round one, The pressure is on the Pens tonight as the Canadians' can just play loose and free. The Pens net minder Fleury has a .913 GAA and he will feel the heat tonight in Pittsburgh.
Nelly
Padres at Giants
Pick: Padres +165
Clayton Richard has far better numbers at home than on the road but consider that both of his road starts this season have come in tough environments, pitching in Colorado and in Cincinnati. While Richard has been better in his home starts he allowed just three runs in both road games and he has not allowed more than three runs in any start this season. Going back to last season that makes ten consecutive outings with three or fewer runs allowed and with 28 strikeouts already this season Richard looks on his way to becoming a very solid pitcher for the Padres even though his record stands at just 1-2 in the early going. San Diego is 17-7 in the last 24 games overall and the Padres are 7-3 in the last ten road games. Matt Cain is having another fine season but the Padres were able to have success against him earlier this season in an eventual win. While Cain has very good numbers, the Giants are just 3-3 behind him this season and just 3-11 in the last 14 meetings against the Padres with Cain on the mound. Cain has walked at least three batters in each of his last two starts and while San Diego does not own a strong batting average the Padres are averaging 4.4 runs per game. San Francisco is 10-6 at home this season but San Diego has won all four meetings between these teams in 2010. Both teams have excellent bullpens but San Diego has been better, featuring a 2.75 ERA for the year. Mark DeRosa will likely be unavailable for this game and the Giants are just 6-6 against left-handed starters this season compared with 12-7 against right-handers. This should be a very even match-up much like game 1 of the series and with exceptional underdog value San Diego is certainly worth a shot tonight.
Executive
250% Tampa Bay